Jns2183

86 now. Feels like 105. Feels like Puerto Vallarta Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Anyone want to guess where elevation is? Today is a classic. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Pulse storms already popping Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

A den of swamp ass Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Grass is as green in July as I have ever seen it Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Light rain has begun Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Nice meso discussion out. We are getting boxed soon and break out the boats. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

I got 0.85" in camp hill Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Some broad rotation Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk

@canderson I think this may be your day Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk

Storms starting to fire south of it off the outflow. It's ungodly horrible out right now with sun. I feel like rice in a steamer. Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk

How is your annual deficit so much? I'm around 20"-21" and my deficit is only a little over 1" Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk

It's 89 with a 73 dew point. That sun has destabilized everything. Now just waiting on an outflow to hit some of the old boundaries laid down from yesterday and watch it blossom Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

I ask it for hypothetical bets so I can track confidence and see how updated changes reflect in its betting. New data and it's at $92 up from $85-$85 Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

No I pulled up the nam soundings for KMDT and downloaded the images for today from 11am till 8pm then uploaded them and had it walk me through its interpretation circling and annotating what it's looking at so I can learn. That was just the summary. I just now uploaded a bunch of different GOES satellite gifs downloaded from CTP site and gave it current flash flood guidance amounts and asked if It had $100 to bet that someone within 25 miles of camp Hill would see flash flooding today how much would it bet. $85-$95. So it's pretty gung ho on people getting slammed today Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

The NAM forecast soundings are not pretty 2:00 PM (Second Image) Thermodynamics: Moisture has deepened significantly through the low-mid troposphere. CAPE increasing. Inversion breaking down. CIN: Nearly eliminated. Wind: Weak veering. Still light but flow is organizing. Interpretation: This is the convective initiation (CI) window. Expect first storms around or after this point, especially if boundaries are present. Tall, narrow CAPE profile supports efficient rainfall. --- [emoji419] 5:00 PM (Third Image) Thermodynamics: CAPE is strong, with tall and narrow shape: classic flash flood profile. Fully saturated up to ~500 mb. Wind: Still weak steering, slight veering. Winds supportive of parallel cell orientation, a key factor in training/banding. Interpretation: This is the high risk time for backbuilding storms. Low LCLs + tall moist layer = efficient rain production. Very favorable for anchored convection with heavy rain. --- [emoji419] 8:00 PM (Bottom Image) Thermodynamics: CAPE remains robust. Deep warm-cloud layer (melting level) = high rainfall efficiency. Winds: Very weak aloft → poor storm motion → cells likely to stall. Shear drops significantly. Interpretation: Flash flood risk peaks if convection sustains. Weak outflow winds suggest training, merging cores, or cell regeneration. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Amazingly you have about 10.5" more than me Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

So repeat it seemx Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Looks like we get to do this tomorrow as well. Any idea the focus area for tomorrow or is it just a game of weather roulette. I didn't exactly have a super high rain chance for today this morning, only 40%, and this happened Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

You've been due for a day like this for how many times storms seemed to just miss you the past couple years. I had my crazy storm day last summer with those tropical remnants setting up a 10-15 mile training band that left with me close to 9". Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Some places between Lancaster and Lebanon are almost at 7" from radar estimates Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

I'm only at 0.70" for the day. 2 miles south they are all above 1.20". Couple miles north and no one's really above 0.45". So you and I are going to still be probably1.5"- 2" below normal for the year to start July while some of our board brethren will be 5"+ above normal. Heck, a couple of stations less than 5 mi from me have 6" more rain on the year than I do and are at +4" Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

The LCL have to be super low with how ridiculous low I see the clouds are during flashes of lightning Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Fed a bunch of the goes satellite gifs and radar gifs from radarscope along with what sounding data i could get from the RAP for Harrisburg, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Hagerstown and fed it into the custom gpt I've been slowly working on for weather that has plenty of good reference files to use. This is the response to The questions wise is happening and how long will it last The images together diagnose a boundary-anchored convective complex, with deep convection consistently regenerating over the area due to: A stationary mesoscale boundary anchored by terrain and earlier outflows. Sufficient instability and moisture, with storms rooted in the boundary layer. Weak mid- and upper-level winds, allowing for storm anchoring and repeated initiation. GLM confirms high lightning frequency, suggesting mature electrified updrafts. Satellite IR, RGB, and Sandwich images show severe convective indicators like cold U/V tops, ice plumes, and overshoots. [emoji352] Training Storm Duration Forecast – Camp Hill, PA (as of July 1, 2025) Prediction: The storm training over Camp Hill is likely to persist for at least another 90–120 minutes, potentially through midnight local time, with some weakening after that. Here's the expert-level breakdown: --- [emoji680] Why It's Still Ongoing 1. Persistent Boundary Anchoring the Convection Radar, GOES-16 visible (Band 2), and IR (Band 13) imagery show repeated cell development aligned with a quasi-stationary boundary. This boundary is being fed by moist inflow from the south, aided by local terrain (i.e., Blue Mountain convergence). Band 2 shows tight convective towers. Band 13 reveals a consistent overshooting top signal, meaning convection remains deep and strong. 2. GLM Flash Extent Density (FED) GLM data shows high-frequency lightning flash clusters (e.g., >100 flashes per minute locally). This high flash rate correlates with strong, vertically continuous updrafts and storm sustainability. 3. No Synoptic Forcing to Move It Along There's no significant mid- or upper-level jet support to shift the storms eastward. Upper-level winds are weak and the entire convective system is largely terrain-anchored. These are classic ridge-running backbuilders. --- [emoji326] Projected Evolution (Next 2–3 Hours) Time Window Likely Behavior Now–+30 min Persistent intense training over Camp Hill and adjacent downstream zones. New cells forming just upstream. +30–90 min Some signs of weakening begin as storm mergers and outflow contamination reduce instability. Flood threat peaks. +90–150 min Storms begin to decay or shift slightly southeast. Expect residual convection, but lighter and more scattered. --- [emoji3544] What Would End the Training? 1. Cold pool stabilization: If widespread downdrafts from merging cells finally chill the inflow. 2. Low-level exhaustion: Surface-based CAPE drops from rain-cooled air. 3. Nighttime boundary layer stabilization: More likely after 1–2 AM if inflow weakens. --- Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

I'm currently getting blinded by sun and heavy rain Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk