Jns2183

I literally just saw two supped up kias try to race each on 11/15 north starting at the light at market street. Reffing the engines waiting for red light to turn green, take off flooring it and about 1.5 seconds later both lose control spinning into each, fiberglass kits shattering. Looks like they both lost side view mirror, parts of their bumper, a tail fan. Both got the hell out of there onto a side street pretty quickly. The ones muffler was dragging throwing off sparks. That truly was the single stupidest thing I've seen in life. Literal on the same level as the guy who jumped in the ocean offg the booze party boat at night in thet Caribbean with numerous large sharks following Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

It is nice Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

@canderdon this is winter version and reverse uno for 6 week period over this summer when 6 seperate events left me with .47" of rain and you with 5". Each of those events I had less than .10" while you had .75 to .89. I can understand if it was a random one-off event but it was weird seeing a pattern like that in the summer Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

What's the elevation there Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I somehow have 2.5" in camp hill. Everything is fully covered Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

These last two storms have completely sold me on the RRFS model. It's due to replace the nam, rap, hrrr, prep, SREF, the whole regional/local convective model combo along with ensemble. I just spent the last 2 hours processing some ad-hoc model skill verification metrics and reading a couple recently released studies on it. All that combined with its performance the last month all over (I constantly was checking it's performance around the nation). I'm now moving it to the place I once held the euro. Even at its range end of 84 hours I value it more than any other model. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

That is why you never judge a model on 3rd dynamic effects, aka snowfall. If Philadelphia gets less than 7"-8" then I will say the models busted. No model had all all of Lancaster county with 12"+ along with a 40 mile buffer to account for model resolution noise, ever. The gradient spent the last few days living in Lancaster county on almost every run with some of the meso models not like the RRFS never showing anything above 5"-6" as a max for entire county from first run to last. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Another thing is that there is absolutely no wind at all Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Now pray for storm to bomb out, retrograde further and tuck in longer. That would be the maximum hilarious factor of the rare back end cover after the news stations just predicted total snow in Harrisburg of 1"-2" after the forecast this morning Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

It was always going to happen to someone due to the area between both bands having all moisture vacuumed up. Can't cool the column. Let's remember 2009 and 2016 for how insane the cut off is in these storms. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

That's special Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Watching that band is interesting. Pictures in order are from 330, 430, 530, 620. That band has collapsed east due to the bombing low. If it didn't and stayed in its location and strength the area between it and coastal would be stuck in drizzle all night. Sometimes these things hate moving at all Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Should be framed in the weenie louve. I'm glad I listened to my gut about this one and didn't get invested. I almost didn't post my analysis very early this morning. I feel bad it ended up verifying to such an extent. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

The models for this storm have actually been pretty damn stellar. But if your basing succes and failure on 3rd order effects you are going to be frustrated. Basing the 'success' of a model on one snowfall map is like saying a GPS is broken because it didn't predict a 5-minute traffic jam at a specific light. The models have been remarkably consistent on the storm's track and energy. Snow totals are just the final, most volatile output of a massive equation involving ratios and column saturation. If the physics are right, the model is doing its job—the fluff factor is just the 'noise' at the end.". You have a situation where the big models have a 12km resolution and the hi res ones 3km. The median displacement forecast error is approximately 40 miles for HRRR and almost twice that for global. Think what that means in this situation. It isn't even a a unique feature to the storm every big nor'easter has the same fundamental physics in play. It was never a question of whether there would be a subsistence zone, only where Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

The only winners in our area will be where inverted trough sets up. The ratios for this storm are below 10:1 every where. I legit think there is going to be an area in Philly area where 10 miles is 10" and half a county remembers this storm as the biggest bust ever, while the other half ranks it a top 10 storm ever. I feel bad those weenies, as that's a brutal as it gets Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Band has about a 40 mile error mean this far out Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Looked at latest model runs. It's a good thing the RRFS is going to replace everything because it was the only model that apparently had a grip on this thing. I think Philly may struggle to hit 8". There are going to be many places under blizzard warnings that don't hit 6". It wants to set the inverted trough up through western Cumberland county. Someone under that is going to do very very well in a 20 mile band. In between the two bands someone is going to come away with 1" of snow total Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I've been a pessimistic regarding this storm, but I have to say it's far far too early to say anything. 7pm was the earliest time I could pin point to tell. Especially regarding what I thought was our best shot, the inverted trough Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

We shall now by 7pm. That is the time Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

You also very well may a screw zone whose width is more narrow than the 40 mile mean banding error for our best models. That 40 mile error at 6 hour forecast, which was from big technical paper NWS did last year. Basically what I'm saying is this narrow screw zone is functional impossible to accurately predict until it's already set up. A true Impossible circumference for forecasters. People wouldn't even know how to process a forecast that is "80% chance of 12"+ over our 200 mile wide viewing area, however somewhere within will be a 20 mile wide band at angle between 90 degrees and 45 degrees where it quickly drops to 3" for the center 10 miles. We unfortunately won't know whose in this band until storm is well underway. Plan accordingly. " Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

The entire route 81 area scares me this storm because of that 20-30 mile screw zone that going to set up and be brutal Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Here are two examples. The regional Canadian and more worrying the RRFS-A, which has never shown more than 3-4" since it got into range. This model is scheduled to replace the HRRR, NAM, RAP with the NEXT 3 MONTHS. The second to last image I threw in was the HRRR. You can clearly see the the sinking air screw zone. If the inverted trough is strong it's even worse as you essentially have two vacuum cleaners sucking up all moisture. I think the possibility for the worst of the possible screw zone might be a bit northeast, Schyukhill county scares the crap out me here. I can easily see a situation where people are livid in one town because they got 3" instead of 12-16" while a place between Harrisburg and state college under a wwa for 3-4" wakes up Monday morning to 12". There 100% will be a small but horrible area of sinking air in this setup. Good luck trying to predict it ahead of time. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Yup, looking at storm evolution I fully expect there to be a town that just gets stuck between the inverted trough and ccb and ends up with 3" on grass while 30 mins either direction they have 10". I'm guessing 4" in camp hill. I don't like our position. But I also have no faith in the models to accurately predict a 30-40 mile wide screw zone. So it's not going to obvious where it sets up until tomorrow evening. This really is a no win forecast for local Mets. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

What should I be paying attention to on mesoanalysis website for hints of where the inverted trough might show up? I'm going all in hoping to get inverted trough vs ccb band. The slant wise convection in that ccb is insane on the models. Which means there is going to be an area somewhere in this viewing area whose going to be have flurries for hours on end while 40:miles either direction is getting smoked. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Can't see picture Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk