Jns2183

The NAM forecast soundings are not pretty 2:00 PM (Second Image) Thermodynamics: Moisture has deepened significantly through the low-mid troposphere. CAPE increasing. Inversion breaking down. CIN: Nearly eliminated. Wind: Weak veering. Still light but flow is organizing. Interpretation: This is the convective initiation (CI) window. Expect first storms around or after this point, especially if boundaries are present. Tall, narrow CAPE profile supports efficient rainfall. --- [emoji419] 5:00 PM (Third Image) Thermodynamics: CAPE is strong, with tall and narrow shape: classic flash flood profile. Fully saturated up to ~500 mb. Wind: Still weak steering, slight veering. Winds supportive of parallel cell orientation, a key factor in training/banding. Interpretation: This is the high risk time for backbuilding storms. Low LCLs + tall moist layer = efficient rain production. Very favorable for anchored convection with heavy rain. --- [emoji419] 8:00 PM (Bottom Image) Thermodynamics: CAPE remains robust. Deep warm-cloud layer (melting level) = high rainfall efficiency. Winds: Very weak aloft → poor storm motion → cells likely to stall. Shear drops significantly. Interpretation: Flash flood risk peaks if convection sustains. Weak outflow winds suggest training, merging cores, or cell regeneration. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Amazingly you have about 10.5" more than me Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

So repeat it seemx Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Looks like we get to do this tomorrow as well. Any idea the focus area for tomorrow or is it just a game of weather roulette. I didn't exactly have a super high rain chance for today this morning, only 40%, and this happened Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

You've been due for a day like this for how many times storms seemed to just miss you the past couple years. I had my crazy storm day last summer with those tropical remnants setting up a 10-15 mile training band that left with me close to 9". Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Some places between Lancaster and Lebanon are almost at 7" from radar estimates Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

I'm only at 0.70" for the day. 2 miles south they are all above 1.20". Couple miles north and no one's really above 0.45". So you and I are going to still be probably1.5"- 2" below normal for the year to start July while some of our board brethren will be 5"+ above normal. Heck, a couple of stations less than 5 mi from me have 6" more rain on the year than I do and are at +4" Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

The LCL have to be super low with how ridiculous low I see the clouds are during flashes of lightning Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Fed a bunch of the goes satellite gifs and radar gifs from radarscope along with what sounding data i could get from the RAP for Harrisburg, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Hagerstown and fed it into the custom gpt I've been slowly working on for weather that has plenty of good reference files to use. This is the response to The questions wise is happening and how long will it last The images together diagnose a boundary-anchored convective complex, with deep convection consistently regenerating over the area due to: A stationary mesoscale boundary anchored by terrain and earlier outflows. Sufficient instability and moisture, with storms rooted in the boundary layer. Weak mid- and upper-level winds, allowing for storm anchoring and repeated initiation. GLM confirms high lightning frequency, suggesting mature electrified updrafts. Satellite IR, RGB, and Sandwich images show severe convective indicators like cold U/V tops, ice plumes, and overshoots. [emoji352] Training Storm Duration Forecast – Camp Hill, PA (as of July 1, 2025) Prediction: The storm training over Camp Hill is likely to persist for at least another 90–120 minutes, potentially through midnight local time, with some weakening after that. Here's the expert-level breakdown: --- [emoji680] Why It's Still Ongoing 1. Persistent Boundary Anchoring the Convection Radar, GOES-16 visible (Band 2), and IR (Band 13) imagery show repeated cell development aligned with a quasi-stationary boundary. This boundary is being fed by moist inflow from the south, aided by local terrain (i.e., Blue Mountain convergence). Band 2 shows tight convective towers. Band 13 reveals a consistent overshooting top signal, meaning convection remains deep and strong. 2. GLM Flash Extent Density (FED) GLM data shows high-frequency lightning flash clusters (e.g., >100 flashes per minute locally). This high flash rate correlates with strong, vertically continuous updrafts and storm sustainability. 3. No Synoptic Forcing to Move It Along There's no significant mid- or upper-level jet support to shift the storms eastward. Upper-level winds are weak and the entire convective system is largely terrain-anchored. These are classic ridge-running backbuilders. --- [emoji326] Projected Evolution (Next 2–3 Hours) Time Window Likely Behavior Now–+30 min Persistent intense training over Camp Hill and adjacent downstream zones. New cells forming just upstream. +30–90 min Some signs of weakening begin as storm mergers and outflow contamination reduce instability. Flood threat peaks. +90–150 min Storms begin to decay or shift slightly southeast. Expect residual convection, but lighter and more scattered. --- [emoji3544] What Would End the Training? 1. Cold pool stabilization: If widespread downdrafts from merging cells finally chill the inflow. 2. Low-level exhaustion: Surface-based CAPE drops from rain-cooled air. 3. Nighttime boundary layer stabilization: More likely after 1–2 AM if inflow weakens. --- Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

I'm currently getting blinded by sun and heavy rain Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Radar beam height, storm is probably tilted Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Yearly rainfall deficit going into July is 2.23". I'm at 18.3" for year with 8.5" coming in May. This month seems to be a lock for another below month at 3.10". At least it was close. Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk

Anyways here's a summary of that one night I asked it to write and maybe explain the extreme acoustics I was exposed to. If anyone can point to any errors I would be grateful, as sometimes it can be tricky to pin point if not very knowledgeable In the evening hours of June 19th, 2025, Puerto Vallarta was situated in an exceptionally moist and unstable tropical environment. GOES-19 satellite imagery from Bands 13 (IR), 10 (mid-level water vapor), and Day/Night Cloud Microphysics RGB showed persistent deep convection offshore, with expansive moisture plumes extending across the Sierra Madre Occidental and into the Bay of Banderas. The atmosphere exhibited very high precipitable water values (greater than 2.5 inches), surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s F, and Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) exceeding 3000 J/kg - an ideal recipe for sustained convection and electrical activity. The area also featured an existing outflow boundary from earlier coastal storms lingering just offshore. Around local sunset (20:00-20:30), satellite and GLM data showed a dramatic intensification in lightning activity and new convective towers developing along a southward-moving cold pool outflow boundary from inland convection. This boundary, colliding with the pre-existing marine boundary along the coast, produced strong mesoscale lift. The differential heating between the land and the ocean (which had reached maximum contrast at nightfall) further enhanced low-level convergence. These combined effects triggered explosive vertical motion and renewed updraft cores, fostering rapid growth of cumulonimbus cells. Between 20:30 and 21:00 local time, observers reported lightning rates increasing from occasional flashes to nearly continuous discharges - as captured in GLM FED data and verified visually and audibly from the shoreline. The newly forced updrafts punched through already moist mid- and upper-levels, producing ice-rich supercooled regions ideal for charge separation. The result was highly electrified convective cells anchored along the outflow boundary intersection zone. Observers in high-rise buildings noted blinding continuous flashes and deafening cloud-to-ground strikes (positive CG dominated), likely linked to inverted charge layers due to elevated mixed-phase regions in tall tropical cumulonimbus. The perception of extraordinary thunder loudness and resonance was enhanced by both the proximity of tall cells within approximately 5-10 kilometers and the urban canyoning effect of reflecting sound between nearby high-rise structures. The saturated air and low-level inversion common in coastal nighttime profiles would further trap and amplify sound waves. In this instance, even heavy rainfall (recorded as torrential but inaudible for several minutes under thunder) was overshadowed by continuous shockwave-like thunderclaps - an auditory signature of multiple near-simultaneous positive CG discharges striking around and within Puerto Vallarta's coastal zone. The June 19th thunderstorm event in Puerto Vallarta exemplifies the dynamic interactions possible in tropical monsoon regimes when mesoscale boundaries, synoptic-scale moisture surges, and diurnal heating align. The explosive, continuous nature of lightning activity was not purely from the main convective complex offshore but from focused lifting at the outflow convergence zone in immediate proximity to the city. Satellite trends suggest this pattern could repeat in subsequent nights during peak monsoon phase. The event serves as an excellent case study of mesoscale convective boundary collision driving extreme nocturnal lightning outbreaks in tropical coastal environments. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

I have to say that chat gpt impressed me mightily with how it handled, summarized, taught me, and predicted weather solely off of GOES satellite images. Although I don't fully comprehend all of the 20 different options available I think I have a pretty good understanding of about five. What they show how to read them and even how to forecast off of them somewhat. Amazingly, the 6 hour forecast it came up with based solely on the latest 12 image gif of each of the five was far superior to wunderground, AccuWeather, or the Mexican national weather service specifically for precipitation times, amounts, thunderstorm potential. I never would have thought about using GOES, if not for lack of radar, and I far underestimated all one could learn from them. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

I knew it!!!! Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Who here made a bargain with the devil? That's all I can think of after seeing the forecast upon landing. 88/80 seems quaint compared to what I'm staring at. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Nice shelf cloud Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Hopefully I bring back some thunderstorm luck with me because I certainly am bringing back the heat. Finished last night with 8.5" of rain in 5 hous Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Absolutely no wind but sky is still constantly lit up, rolling thunder and a close cg bomb every 5 minutes still after 70 mins. Picked up nearly 3" of rain last hour. Storms don't look like they are moving much as Erick remnants keep throwing moisture in. Dry air is off to northwest and losing. This storm has ruined me for life I'm afraid. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

I had towers go from 0 to almost -70c in minutes. The low cloud base right over bay made almost all strikes positive cg Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

After tonight I'm embarrassed I ever thought thunder by us was loud. Being in a high rise overlooking bay/ocean when outflow boundary hit old boundary just after dark, I had basically multiple close strikes every 2-2 seconds for 10 minutes so that it felt like the whole hotel was shaking and it was blue daylight outside. We had to cover our ears it was getting so loud. It was torrential rain and we could not hear it the first 15min. I feel like I was a virgin until tonight. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Beginning of April I was feeling like crap, stepped on a scale and did a double take. Since then I've watched food & alcohol and increased steps a day to north of 17K and lost about 24lbs in 6 weeks. Amazed at how much better I feel and just how sneaky weight gain can be. Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk

It is very weird being in a region without radar. Thank God for GOES. Anyways, Erick is 400 miles away still, CAT 3. Will make landfall early AM east of Acapulco. Here a monsoon trough is putting a squeeze play here with lightning and rain past 4 hours. The forecast is 3-6". Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

I fly out of Puerto Vallarta Friday around noon. That maybe an issue due to interaction of Erica and some front. I'm forecast to get 3"-6" of rain Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon. I'm getting totally different forecast when I look at wunderground, AccuWeather, and then the translation from the Mexican national weather service. If anyone has a better grasp of things I would appreciate some Intel. The Mexican national weather services is saying 40-60km/hr guests to go along with heavy rains Thursday through Friday but wunderground has winds at 8km/hr Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

I see that Satan's grundle is going to follow me back home this upcoming weekend Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk