Jns2183

Any chance you have the original uncompressed images for the first 5 Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I have close to 3" of snow. I also picked up this little guy yesterday. This morning he was scared of snow until he got in it. Then immediately went crazy with delight Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Thought people might enjoy this The temperature is based on recorded max temperature for day and the percentage is out of all the days preceiptitation was measured Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Final part Haha, I spent way too long on this to not put forth my pet theory regarding the 1960s. The absolute insane return periods for "luck" and just plain actual snow and it's correlation to some events has not been studied super well. I guess this is the sacrifice needed for us to get the winters we pray for. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Part 2 Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I have a super long post that will take a few separate post. The snowfall in Harrisburg is driven by a combination of global atmospheric patterns and what we call "Timing Luck"—the localized, chaotic meeting of moisture and cold air that large-scale indices like the NAO and PNA cannot predict. Our analysis identifies "Luck" as the residual snowfall surplus or deficit left over after accounting for these global drivers. While atmospheric patterns explain about 6–9% of the variability, the rest comes down to whether individual storms happen to "phase" correctly over our region. The 1960s (1961–1970) stand out as a once-in-a-millennium statistical outlier where Harrisburg received a massive +110-inch "luck" surplus, effectively gaining nearly one-third of its total snowfall through perfect timing rather than just favorable global setups. In contrast, the current period from 2021 to 2025 has been characterized by a deep "luck deficit," rivaling the extreme snow droughts of the 1950s. Even when atmospheric indices are neutral or slightly favorable, we are currently underperforming our "expected" snowfall by over 5 inches per year. Our modeling shows that while the 1960s were a ~1,700-year fluke of extreme overperformance, the current deficit represents a significant run of "bad luck" where storm tracks have consistently avoided the Susquehanna Valley. For those interested in the deep-dive statistics, including the return periods for our luckiest years (1961, 1996) and unluckiest years (1980, 1998, 2023), please see the attached images for the full distribution and decade-by-decade breakdown. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Huge lighting bolt few minutes ago Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

The wind only allowed me a couple hours of sleep last night after tree crashed in neighbors yard so I made a pot of coffee and made great progress on my project. I have daily indicies values for NAO, AO, PNA, GBI, ENSO, SO, MJO for 1950-2025 that all have been standardized for 1950-2000 period. The last 3 on the list took forever due to having calculated them from raw data. Once I found NOAA data documentation it was manageable. I also have Harrisburg raw data from 12/1/1899 to present. I standardized it over same period while smoothing according to NWS policy. I just started running ungodly statistical tests involving lagging correlations but the main point here is I have lost a lot of faith in MU. So much of the final outcome here is basically down to timing luck and mesodynamics but that still doesn't take away from teleconnection stacking the deck some going through his Twitter history he doesn't like to put his cards on the table until the time to do so is way over, nor does he explain in a logical coherent manner before the fact why he thinks what he says. It's alwAys later using post fact rationalization using data, events, facts that one arent really related to teleconnection. He's basically dipping into that mesodynamics, timings, whatever else whitch brew to let his prejudice be known. Because here is the kicker. He doesn't treat other months of the year anywhere like he does winter. Probably lowering .confidence overall in him for winter months by 25%. Just because our luck factor, climatology speaking with snow is poor, isn't a reason to hide behind it. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Dual pol radar velocity measurements via radarscope using distance radius tool which helpfully includes beam height with distance with passing line Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I see winds up around 4000 feet are 80mph+ with this front passage. Now to see how much this translate to the ground. I suppose it will depend on how well it can mix down. Right now the air is this soup, foggy, stale, still. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

There is a seasonal pattern, but I think also it depends on cold vs warm front, cold air damming, boundary layer stability, effects of mountains. Lots of times fronts get held up until mid day heating in some areas and that correlates to passage time here. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

This however has been the most worrisome trend since summer. Lots of times it's been even worse with gradients and the southern extent being just south of DC. Seems like we've had to fight to get every mm of preceiptitation this past year in Cumberland county. Carlislewx guy with his 38" can attest to that. Lancaster county I know has areas above 50", probably above 60". I think we have had a real lack of pure coastal storms the past couple years that Cumberland county thrives on. Downsloping has been a brutal component of so many once promising storms. Here is to hoping the new year can shake that up some. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Anyone have good historical data for the Greenland blocking index (GBI), the Atlantic Ridge index (AR), Polar Cap Height (PCH)? I think with those values I could have some real fun in my data analysis project for this area. I already have the 4 big teleconnection index values daily going back to 1950. Daily weather records for the the complete history of almost every station that had reported at one time or another in about a 6 county area around South Central Pennsylvania Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

This low here is our 50/50 for our 4sd negative nao It's currently 996. In 24 hours it's 980. 36 hours 976. 48 hours 972. I would happily take a mix event to get a true miller A with a double phase. I don't even know that last time we had that let alone the white whale that is a triple phase. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

It never got above freezing up there. I see temps 29-30. Forcast here was 38-40. We got up to 33 Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Also, I feel horrible for Iowa State fans. This week has been basically a red wedding for them. They've lost everyone but at 6 positions Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I'm with @canderson here with the wind threat here. The low track is a bit north of ideal but the timing of it bombing out and how it translates down here seems like it opens us up to greater probability of a high end event. Tomorrow any cams around Buffalo showing the lake are going to be something else. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Because a day like this is a beer drinking day Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Worst winds here seem to be overnight Monday Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

1-2 feet winds guesting up to 55mph Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I used to head up to Pottsville a bunch. Was always amazed at the weather change from even frackville to there. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Haha, a 5 day winter storm warning. I think a few here would willingly give up a few fingers for that. Only storm in history that came close was the April storm that dumped 40"+ in Morgantown way In the past Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Are spending new years there? Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

How are the crowds? Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Italian ski resorts have received 9-10 feet of snow since Christmas eve Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk