canderson Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 That's a good Euro run, as good as any of us could've hoped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The NYC forum is fighting over where State College is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The NYC forum is fighting over where State College is now. Haha saw that! Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Map posted puts MDT and AVP at .8 to .9 and IPT and UNV around .5 to .6 Probably about time that CPT and BGM do what they are going to do, whether that be Warnings or Advisories.....I probably lean Warnings from a Binghamton, Williamsport, Harrisburg line one Eastward.....Advisories 1 or 2 rows of counties west of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I think we see 5 to 8 warning for hburg 5 to 10 warning NEPA 3 to 5 advisory IPT and 2 to 4 advisory a tier out from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 end of HRRR starting to get close to event range... 16z run has 850mb 0 C line moving in wrong direction during overnight hours up to end of run at 2am which is not good with the edge of precip starting to reach DC area then... hope this is because it is at the tail end of the run and we see better results the next few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The NYC forum is fighting over where State College is now. What doesn't the NYC forum fight about? But yeah that was pathetic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I think NE PA is actually in a good place for this, I'd say 6"+ is a lock, maybe even 8"+. Good frontogenesis and VVs look to make it to that area. Ratios won't be the best but it should be cold enough to accumulate right away. I-81 corridor and east has the best odds at 6-8"+ but back towards I-99/Rt 220 there should some 6" amounts as well. I'd say 4-7" for State College, Williamsport, Altoona. West of there more like 2-4". I'd say CTP goes with warnings for the tier of counties just east of I-99, i.e. starting with Huntingdon, Juniata, Northumberland. High-end advisory is probably the safer bet west of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 BGM just pulled the trigger and put their NEPA counties under a Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY207 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014...SNOWSTORM EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT TO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICHWILL IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL....A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTHEASTPENNSYLVANIA AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGHWEDNESDAY. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...LESS SNOW IS EXPECTED. THE SNOWIS EXPECTED TO TAPER DOWN TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAYNIGHT. THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL ONWEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCHOF CENTRAL NEW YORK ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A UTICA TOWAVERLY LINE.NYZ057-062-PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072-261915-/O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0005.141126T1200Z-141127T1200Z//O.NEW.KBGM.WS.W.0006.141126T0800Z-141127T1100Z/DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WALTON...DELHI...MONTICELLO...TUNKHANNOCK...SCRANTON...WILKES-BARRE...HAZLETON...MILFORD...HONESDALE207 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM ESTTHURSDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAYTO 6 AM EST THURSDAY.* LOCATIONS...ALL OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA EXCEPT BRADFORD COUNTYAND DELAWARE AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES IN NEW YORK.* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILLBE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE AFOOT OF SNOW. VALLEYS WILL SEE THE LEAST SNOWFALL.* TIMING...SNOW BEGINS BETWEEN 3 AND 6 AM OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUESTHROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY AND TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAYNIGHT TO SNOW SHOWERS. SNOWFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR ISEXPECTED BETWEEN 9 AM AND 3 PM WEDNESDAY.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH.* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADS. TRAVEL FROM LATETONIGHT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME DANGEROUS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHERCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOWARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN ANEMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRAFLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF ANEMERGENCY.PLEASE REPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BYCALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT[email protected]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'm 1/1 so far lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 CTP counties will do well. Couple of key things I've noticed: 1.) Highs are running 1-3 degrees below what was forecast. 2.) De points are running lower than what MAV/MET MOS guidance was forecasting. This is huge, especially if the dews can drop another 3-5 degrees overnight. The atmosphere will be able to wet bulb much quicker. 3.) The cirrus shield has really muted the insolation on roads...secondary roads should see some adverse impacts. 4.) Speaking of clouds, there is a nice bit of clearing in western PA / eastern OH. If that can nudge in for a few hours this evening then it should help temps radiate. All these little things can be huge...I am cautiously optimistic things pan out on the snowier side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 Sidenote, PBZ just pulled the trigger on winter weather advisories...CTP should do the same within the next 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 CTP counties will do well. Couple of key things I've noticed: 1.) Highs are running 1-3 degrees below what was forecast. 2.) De points are running lower than what MAV/MET MOS guidance was forecasting. This is huge, especially if the dews can drop another 3-5 degrees overnight. The atmosphere will be able to wet bulb much quicker. 3.) The cirrus shield has really muted the insolation on roads...secondary roads should see some adverse impacts. 4.) Speaking of clouds, there is a nice bit of clearing in western PA / eastern OH. If that can nudge in for a few hours this evening then it should help temps radiate. All these little things can be huge...I am cautiously optimistic things pan out on the snowier side. Great observations, and much appreciated with all the squabbling going on over each tiny difference on the models in some of the subforums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Sidenote, PBZ just pulled the trigger on winter weather advisories...CTP should do the same within the next 3 hours. Also threw up warnings in the Laurels' sections of Westmoreland and Fayette as well. My guess would be CTP will upgrade all of their watch counties to warnings and throw Clearfield and northern Clinton/Lycoming in advisories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Doesn't CTP wait for the afternoon discussion (4 p.m.) to change headlines? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Great observations, and much appreciated with all the squabbling going on over each tiny difference on the models in some of the subforums. Yep hugging surface temperatures on each run of each model is not going to get you anywhere. Models being off on little things such as cloud cover, dew point temps, or other can impact the degree or two changes from run to run. Some elsewhere just don't seem to be thinking about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 Yep hugging surface temperatures on each run of each model is not going to get you anywhere. Models being off on little things such as cloud cover, dew point temps, or other can impact the degree or two changes from run to run. Some elsewhere just don't seem to be thinking about that. Yea...in marginal events like this, Jan 26, 2011 and Oct 28, 2011 are examples when low level dry air is key. In Philly on Jan 26, 2011 the metro region wet bulbed in one hour and that caused an unexpected 6"-9" of wet snow to just murder the commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 Boom: New event. Winter Storm Warning from 11/26/2014 3:00 AM to 11/27/2014 12:00 AM EST for Lancaster County, York County. More information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On cue...warnings just went up Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Man, the other sub forums are just down right depressing. I've noticed similar observations that Eskimo Joe was eluding too. I think any areas near I95 and east are basically toast, but any area 15+ miles to the N&W of the fall line could very well see some snow accumulation. I don't think some people grasp the idea of a Miller A coming up the coast too well. A system with a Gulf and Atlantic connection will be moisture laden and that's a given. Time in and time out we've seen Miller A events get under forecasted by every model including the Euro. Now, the situation with temperatures out ahead of the system are not what we are used to seeing, but they are improving and good enough for most areas north of the Mason Dixon to see snow. The dynamics will play a key role in the storms evolution and it's ability to give areas a good dumping of snow. One thing that has been common from all the models is the storm will be producing fairly significant dynamics during the height of the event. 700 mb UVV looks prime for a good extension of the area, especially from Adams county to West Chester off to the northeast. Aided by a help in elevation for many, this could be a bit of a surprise for some. The storm track looks good, the fact we have a southern stream connection is good and we don't have to deal with a killer sun angle unlike times in March. The only two things that could throw a monkey wrench into the overall equation for snow would be a lack of UL dynamics present and surface temperatures. Areas further south into DC will probably see a fail and anyone near the bay and I95 will be looking at a rain/white rain ending as some back end flakes with little to no accumulation. But those areas N&W have a shot, especially areas with an elevation >650'. This is just my two cents. It's November guys, this is still just a bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 slight update to graphic bumping up totals through central PA... I am literally on the line between 4-6" and 6-8" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 That map is about as good as you can get for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 That map is about as good as you can get for this time of year. No kidding. I'd take that map till mid December Edit: Or numerous times throughout the winter for that matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 18z NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 That map is about as good as you can get for this time of year. I'm just happy there's going to be no ice aspect to this storm. I'm pretty sure it was literally this day last year we had our first winter storm of the season and it was a verified ice storm warning back in these parts and in the southern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Man, the other sub forums are just down right depressing. I've noticed similar observations that Eskimo Joe was eluding too. I think any areas near I95 and east are basically toast, but any area 15+ miles to the N&W of the fall line could very well see some snow accumulation. I don't think some people grasp the idea of a Miller A coming up the coast too well. A system with a Gulf and Atlantic connection will be moisture laden and that's a given. Time in and time out we've seen Miller A events get under forecasted by every model including the Euro. Now, the situation with temperatures out ahead of the system are not what we are used to seeing, but they are improving and good enough for most areas north of the Mason Dixon to see snow. The dynamics will play a key role in the storms evolution and it's ability to give areas a good dumping of snow. One thing that has been common from all the models is the storm will be producing fairly significant dynamics during the height of the event. 700 mb UVV looks prime for a good extension of the area, especially from Adams county to West Chester off to the northeast. Aided by a help in elevation for many, this could be a bit of a surprise for some. The storm track looks good, the fact we have a southern stream connection is good and we don't have to deal with a killer sun angle unlike times in March. The only two things that could throw a monkey wrench into the overall equation for snow would be a lack of UL dynamics present and surface temperatures. Areas further south into DC will probably see a fail and anyone near the bay and I95 will be looking at a rain/white rain ending as some back end flakes with little to no accumulation. But those areas N&W have a shot, especially areas with an elevation >650'. This is just my two cents. It's November guys, this is still just a bonus This isn't going to be a happy storm for my backyard-it's very likely to be a rain or sleet or nonaccumulating slop event. The writing's been on the wall for a while for this to be an interior event. If the airmass behind this front was anything like last week's, it would be much better for more people. I'll have to live this storm vicariously through this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 i may hang out up here for a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 i may hang out up here for a bit... I would. The ledge down in the MA forum is getting crowded from everyone jumping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I would. The ledge down in the MA forum is getting crowded from everyone jumping they will push me too if im not careful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 they will push me too if im not careful I don't know why anyone around the DC area thought this was going to be a good storm for them. The writing was on the wall a few days ago about this being a back loaded event for everyone with no drilling HP to the north to help out. They live at the wrong latitude, combine that with UHI and they were destined for failure. I still think areas N&W of the major cities get snow and there will be one heck of gradient as you go. Your area and anyone above 650' will do decent to pretty good depending on high up you go. Here in SPA and CPA, we should be ok for most of us to change to snow quicker and accumulate for a few more hours compared to down south. I love a lot of those guys, but it's a snow storm in November. If anyone thought we'd all get hammered, I have some beach front property in Nebraska to sell them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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