ncskywarn Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Climatologically speaking more then likely it's not going to happen but still interesting to look at. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20141029&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=RDU&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=35.32157173916777&mLON=-79.574391015625&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Here's where the bullseye is according to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 How far south do the members go for accumulating snowfall??? Does that snow band include Horry County??? Reading more and posting less is a good thing when you can not contribute to the discussion in a pinned thread I have bumped the etiquette and newbie information threads for everyone's viewing pleasure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 1m1 minute ago State College, PA nam slamming outer banks with near hurricane force winds Sat night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 GFS is actually close to a dusting of snow at GSO Friday Night. Pretty crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 GFS is actually close to a dusting of snow at GSO Friday Night. Pretty crazy. Yeah AMWX snowfall maps give most of Central/Western NC something to get excited about. Will be interesting to see if they verify! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Yeah AMWX snowfall maps give most of Central/Western NC something to get excited about. Will be interesting to see if they verify! Depends on if the models are correct with the upper low. If it is as robust as the gfs is depicting and the timing is during the night, there will definitely be some snow outside the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 GFS is actually close to a dusting of snow at GSO Friday Night. Pretty crazy. Do you know what the earliest accumulating snow at GSO is ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Do you know what the earliest accumulating snow at GSO is ? No, I'd have to look that up. Most likely the last few days of Oct or sometime in early Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Current 00z GFS at 63hrs. out....Snow shifted a little east from last run at 18z… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Here's where the bullseye is according to the GFS snow_sat_gfs.jpg The GFS usually doesn't handle ridges that well esp. the TN/NC border. Morristown pretty much is certain the border from the Smoky Mountains to VA is going to likely get up to a foot or more of snow - and I can buy it with all the moisture available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Looking at the 00z GFS, snow really does look possible. 850s dip down to -3C here, surface temperatures are in the low 30s (but above freezing). I'm sure there's a warm layer in there screwing it all up, though. It's October, so I'm not going to bother looking. It could be fun for the mountains. Weenie map time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Here is an interesting graph based on the latest GFS....look how much of SC would see traces of snow.... If this does happen and I get to see it, it will satisfy me until things really pick up later this year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Here is an interesting graph based on the latest GFS....look how much of SC would see traces of snow.... If this does happen and I get to see it, it will satisfy me until things really pick up later this year.... I don't think both surface and ground temperature is that favorable outside mountains and Triad for a trace, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I don't think both surface and ground temperature is that favorable outside mountains and Triad for a trace, though. I know, but a lot can still change....I would not care if it sticked right now being so early in the season, I would want to see it... Now come Dec., different story.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 6z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 6z GFS... I suppose this is possible. I would think that the most likely outcome will be rain mixing with snow at times(..during heaver rates). Even RAH mentioned this possibility in their last nights discussion. Funny, it's possible that Charlotte could see a little snow (..mixed precip) while all the big cities to the north see rain. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_060_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=060&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141030+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Edit: Not trying to be a downer but I think the NAM would have a better look(reality) with this system --- basically 850s above freezing where there is heaver precip: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_066_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=066&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141030+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I suppose this is possible. I would think that the most likely outcome will be rain mixing with snow at times(..during heaver rates). Even RAH mentioned this possibility in their last nights discussion. Funny, it's possible that Charlotte could see a little snow (..mixed precip) while all the big cities to the north see rain. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_060_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=060&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141030+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Edit: Not trying to be a downer but I think the NAM would have a better look(reality) with this system --- basically 850s above freezing where there is heaver precip: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_066_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=066&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141030+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Agree, I wouldn't expect flakes outside the mountains. It's a nice looking storm, just need it 6 weeks later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I know, but a lot can still change....I would not care if it sticked right now being so early in the season, I would want to see it... Now come Dec., different story.... Ummmm......nope....it will not change. You will not see any flakes unless you head north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 From the WPC, the latest 24-hour probability of snowfall accumulating greater than or equal to 1" at 18Z on Saturday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 interesting snippet from KILM this morning "SATURDAY MORNING FINDS AN APPROXIMATE 5 SIGMA 500MB TROUGH IN THE EAST WITH THE AMAZING 536DAM CUTOFF RIGHT OVER ILM BY 18Z...THE FINE FOLKS AT WPC DESCRIBINGAS A NEARLY 50 YEAR EVENT." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 it's going to be fun when we get these systems in winter. Can't wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 it's going to be fun when we get these systems in winter. Can't wait.Sadly, we don't get many events like this in the winter. We get alot of these in the transitional times of year(spring/fall) when the atmosphere is making an effort to balance everything out as the seasons change and adjust the warm and cold balance of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 The Euro activates the southern stream toward the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Winter storm watch for Buncombe County on Saturday is unreal for Nov. 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 The last few runs of both the GFS and Nam have been showing some snow for the Triad region. I think there's a decent chance to see some flakes in the air at least. I would call that a win! http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/images/plotter.php?site=kint&var=snow_accum&nam=1&namm=1&nam4km=1&gfs=1&gfsm=1&rap=1&nam_mos=1&gfs_mos=1&gfsm_mos=1&nws=1&obs=1&con=1&max_t=1&cobb=1&compaction=1&ratio=10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Winter storm watch for Buncombe County on Saturday is unreal for Nov. 1.it will change to an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 it will change to an advisory. What's there requirement for a Warning? 6"+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 12z nam look good for CLT sat morning., looks like the best shot of seeing snow outside of the mtns will be under the heaviest precip rates as the low moves thru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 What's there requirement for a Warning? 6"+?I think it's 5+ 2"-4" for an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.