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The Official 2014 Fall Discussion Thread

jburns

By jburns,
in Southeastern States

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

lol.  Not a big enough difference to quench my almost baseless fears.  I am forever prejudiced against early season snow and will wish that it snows nowhere in the SE until after December 1.   May this storm fall apart and evaporate into eternal virga.  :nerdsmiley:

 

 

Or this could just be a preview of bigger things to come this winter. 

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

Go home weather, you're drunk: 

 

 It's actually not out of the realm of possibility as there have been a few runs of the nam/gfs that have showed  that it's actually possible that some snow could at least mix in at times under any areas of decent precipitation. Looks like if it happened it would be a fairly narrow window for it happening saturday morning, and over a rather small area where the coldest boundary layer conditions meet up with the coldest air aloft before it warms up too much. And your area looks as good as any. The soundings below are around (just south and east of charlotte). besides the obvious temps, dewpoints/wetbulbs on the gfs show they it could be low enough to  allow for potentially enough cooling for rain to mix with snow for a little while

 

Of course it's really early for this and climo/odds are obviously against it but imo the chances are not zero that snow will mix in somewhere over central/west central nc to the eastern upstate/northeast of columbia. It's hard to say exactly what the  chances are right now since the temps are so marginal   and the nam/gfs are shifting around exactly where the best precip and cold temps overlap. There is only a very brief 2 or 3 hour window when it could happen, roughly between 12z and 15z sat. Hopefully someone will see one or two flakes somewhere.

 

gfs


PRES	HGHT	TEMP	DWPT	RELH	MIXR	DRCT	SKNT	TWTB	TVRT	THTA	THTE	THTV
983.7	198	2.4	-1.9	73	3.4	283	11	0.8	3.0	276.9	286.4	277.4
975.0	270	2.2	-3.1	68	3.1	291	17	0.2	2.7	277.3	286.1	277.8
950.0	479	0.8	-4.7	67	2.9	307	28	-1.2	1.2	277.9	286.1	278.4
925.0	693	-0.8	-6.1	67	2.6	319	37	-2.6	-0.3	278.5	286.1	279.0
900.0	911	-1.8	-7.8	64	2.4	326	45	-3.8	-1.5	279.6	286.5	280.0
850.0	1364	-2.9	-13.2	45	1.6	341	45	-6.0	-2.7	283.0	287.9	283.3
800.0	1843	-5.3	-13.9	51	1.6	356	30	-7.8	-5.1	285.4	290.4	285.7
750.0	2345	-9.8	-12.6	80	2.0	354	16	-10.6	-9.4	285.9	291.8

nam

NAM Text Sounding | 15 UTC Sat 01 Nov 2014 | Latitude: 34.9457 | Longitude: -80.9719
PRES	HGHT	TEMP	DWPT	RELH	MIXR	DRCT	SKNT	TWTB	TVRT	THTA	THTE	THTV
987.7	181	3.3	1.1	85	4.2	326	13	2.4	4.1	277.5	289.2	278.2
975.0	286	1.8	0.4	90	4.0	330	18	1.3	2.5	277.0	288.2	277.7
950.0	495	-0.1	-0.5	97	3.9	333	24	-0.2	0.5	277.1	287.9	277.7
925.0	708	-1.5	-1.9	97	3.6	341	31	-1.6	-0.9	277.8	287.9	278.4
900.0	925	-2.5	-3.3	94	3.3	350	39	-2.8	-1.9	278.9	288.4	279.5
875.0	1149	-2.2	-2.4	98	3.7	8	38	-2.3	-1.6	281.5	292.0	282.1
850.0	1380	-1.5	-1.6	99	4.0	23	28	-1.5	-0.8	284.6	296.1	285.2
825.0	1617	-1.6	-1.8	99	4.1	39	17	-1.7	-1.0	286.8	298.7	287.6
800.0	1862	-2.7	-2.8	99	3.9	57	7	-2.7	-2.0	288.3	299.7
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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

lol. Not a big enough difference to quench my almost baseless fears. I am forever prejudiced against early season snow and will wish that it snows nowhere in the SE until after December 1. May this storm fall apart and evaporate into eternal virga. :nerdsmiley:

It's the Oct hurricanes that produce winter storms is what we don't want. Early Nov 2009 had a powerful coastal which bode well for rest of that winter, outside of RDU :-)

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Remember -- we did ok with this storm:

 

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20100129/

 

It was a "climo" winter for us...I consider anything 90-110% climo.  PGV and GSO were 200+%, when people just on either side of us are at 200+% and we are at "climo", then it's a sucktastic winter.  Especially for as cold as that winter was, it sucked.  But that's been the theme since that winter, I don't expect it to change.

 

It's nice looking storm on the Euro for this weekend.  I would be pumped if I was in the mountains!  Was thinking of doing Tweetsie on Saturday but with the cold/snow we are bailing.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

It was a "climo" winter for us...I consider anything 90-110% climo.  PGV and GSO were 200+%, when people just on either side of us are at 200+% and we are at "climo", then it's a sucktastic winter.  Especially for as cold as that winter was, it sucked.  But that's been the theme since that winter, I don't expect it to change.

 

Why? Because it's easier to be pessimistic, even if most of the signs point to it being a good winter?

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Why are many of us so closely following the amazingly extensive Eurasian Oct. snowcover? Because of its apparent signficant correlation to a strong -AO in DJF, especially if there is El Nino. Why is a strong -AO in DJF so important for the SE US when there is El Nino? Consider these tidbits using KATL DJF since 1950-1 as a proxy for the inland SE in general:

 

- A whopping 7 of 7 (100%) of Nino's with a sub -0.9 DJF AO were ~3 or more colder than normal (i.e., top 20 cold winter)!!

- Only 2 of 14 (14%) of non-Nino's with a sub -0.9 DJF AO were ~3 or more colder than normal (1962-3 and 1978-9)

- Only 1 of 14 (7%) of Nino's without a sub -0.9 DJF AO was ~3 or more colder than normal (1963-4)

- Only 1 of 29 (3%) of non-Nino's without a sub -0.9 DJF AO was ~3 or more colder than normal (1981-2)

 

 So, the combo of El Nino and strong -AO tells us so much. Based on the very impressive Eurasian snowcover and the OPI, the chances for a strongly -AO are much higher than normal. Based on the current Nino 3.4 temp's, the solidly -SOI overall, and the ENSO models, a weak El Nino is quite likely. Also, weak to low end moderate El Nino's have been the coldest when accompanied by solid -AO. And that's not even taking into account the very high chance for a solid +PDO! I guess what I'm saying is that a DJF that is 3 or colder than average for much of the inland SE has actually become likely in my mind!

 

 By the way, 70% of cold KATL winters had above average wintry precip. overall. That is in contrast to only ~30% of mild winters and ~50% of near normal winters. So, the snowlovers/icelovers should consider that.

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

I believe in 2011 we had a setup similar to this in March where it was 38 and snowing during the afternoon in CLT. Nothing stuck of course but it did snow.  Given the thickness associated with this going with the NAM and EURO it's looking possible to see some flakes. Pretty amazing really. The bigger question I have now is with moisture associated with it. Seems pretty light. 

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Orangeburgwx

Orangeburgwx

Posted
Posted

Posted in the mountain thread but is worthy of posting here too..  Mid winter type Euro ensemble support..

 

 

12z ensemble accumulating snowfall members:

 

Asheville: 43/50 members 15 with +2 inches

Boone: 44/50 members 11 with +6 inches

 

Franklin: 42/50 members 17 with +2 inches

How far south do the members go for accumulating snowfall???

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

Even FFC is calling for a dusting in north Georgia

 

THIS BRINGS MOISTURE TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN ADDITION TO COLD TEMPERATURES. NEW GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT IS CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THUS HAVE ADJUSTED THE LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES.

BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING... IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH WITH THE MOISTURE TO SEE SOME SNOW WITH THE RAIN.

GUIDANCE IS POINTING AT ACCUMULATION AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS... ALTHOUGH THE OUTLIERS SHOW JUST OVER AN INCH. OFFICIAL ACCUMULATION FORECAST IS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD SLIGHTLY IF THE GUIDANCE AMOUNTS REMAIN CONSISTENT.

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