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The Official 2014 Fall Discussion Thread

jburns

By jburns,
in Southeastern States

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

We are going to waste a good pattern too early in the season. We would much rather see this shift to a favorable pattern in mid December not early November.

 

Marietta,

 I was hoping for a warm October for better wintry precip. prospects in N GA and much of the SE US as per analogs and am thrilled we got it. However, even though what you say sounds logical, a chilly November would not be a bad thing at all per analogs. As a matter of fact, a cold Nov. would actually be by a good margin best for prospects for a cold winter:

 

 I looked at anything from high end neutral positive through low end moderate El Nino (33 winters) at KATL. Here is what I found for the respective winters going from coldest Nov. to warmest Nov.:

 

Year/Nov. mean/Winter

1976/44.2/cold

1911/47.0/cold

1880/47.3/cold

1951/47.5/warm

1923/49.8/norm

1969/50.1/cold

1968/50.1/cold

1936/50.1/warm

1939/50.2/cold

1885/50.5/cold

2002/50.9/norm

1884/51.3/cold

1963/51.5/cold

1904/51.6/cold

1929/51.8/warm

1914/52.4/cold

1895/52.4/norm

1953/52.7/warm

1952/52.8/warm

1900/52.8/norm

2006/53.8/warm

1935/53.8/cold

1979/54.3/norm

1977/54.3/cold

1913/54.8/norm

1927/55.7/norm

1919/55.7/norm

2004/56.4/warm

1990/56.5/warm

1958/56.5/norm

2003/57.6/norm

1986/57.9/norm

1994/58.3/warm

 

 Notice how top heavy (i.e., following colder Nov.'s) are the cold winters and bottom heavy (i.e., following warmer Nov.'s) are the warm winters.

 

**Conclusion: I'd much rather see a cold November than a warm one at Atlanta to feel I have the best prospects for a cold Atlanta winter when we’re anywhere from high end neutral positive ENSO to low end moderate El Nino (as is almost definitely going to be the case this winter).

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

You guys need to stop thinking about wasting a good pattern. Instead, think about it as a bonus good pattern. This is house money y'all!

 

 CR,

 Not only that but as the historical stats for analogs just showed, a warm SE Nov. (considering only relevant ENSO analogs) would actually be partially negatively correlated with a cold SE winter's chances. And a noncold winter has had, on average, significantly less wintry precip. than a cold winter at least at Atlanta (though I assume practically everywhere in the inland SE). Therefore, by transitivity, a warm Nov. (considering only relevant ENSO analogs) would favor less wintertime wintry precip.  on average than a cold Nov. would do. Therefore, if one wants the best shot at higher than normal wintry precip. this winter, one should want a near normal or cold Nov. Therefore, I'm so loving this change to colder this month!

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RONALD B

RONALD B

Posted
Posted

It's not gonna get below freezing here tonight. I've seen this where the temp struggles to drop. We've been around 41-43 for several hours now, after sunset even. We'll get into the mid-30s and then start going back up.

the dew point is 27 am sure they will drop closer enough too freezing !

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WidreMann

WidreMann

Posted
Posted

the dew point is 27 am sure they will drop closer enough too freezing !

The dewpoint can be however low it wants to be, but if there is still some mixing, or any clouds, it won't drop enough. We're sitting at 39 at midnight. At 7, it was 43. It took 5 hours to drop 4 degrees. At this rate, it will be 33 or so by sunrise, a far cry from the upper 20s that are still being forecast.
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Isopycnic

Isopycnic

Posted
Posted

The dewpoint can be however low it wants to be, but if there is still some mixing, or any clouds, it won't drop enough. We're sitting at 39 at midnight. At 7, it was 43. It took 5 hours to drop 4 degrees. At this rate, it will be 33 or so by sunrise, a far cry from the upper 20s that are still being forecast.

Bingo... Some areas to our SW got to ~28f

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Marietta,

 I was hoping for a warm October for better wintry precip. prospects in N GA and much of the SE US as per analogs and am thrilled we got it. However, even though what you say sounds logical, a chilly November would not be a bad thing at all per analogs. As a matter of fact, a cold Nov. would actually be by a good margin best for prospects for a cold winter:

 

 I looked at anything from high end neutral positive through low end moderate El Nino (33 winters) at KATL. Here is what I found for the respective winters going from coldest Nov. to warmest Nov.:

 

~ snippet ~

 Notice how top heavy (i.e., following colder Nov.'s) are the cold winters and bottom heavy (i.e., following warmer Nov.'s) are the warm winters.

 

**Conclusion: I'd much rather see a cold November than a warm one at Atlanta to feel I have the best prospects for a cold Atlanta winter when we’re anywhere from high end neutral positive ENSO to low end moderate El Nino (as is almost definitely going to be the case this winter).

 

That's amazing looking at that, very surprised to see it so lopsided.  You also have to get it to LC for going so cold in Nov for his winter forecast, when he released that there wasn't a single seasonal model showing a cold November.  Now, we don't know what the last half of Nov is going to look like as it could torch but the first half of Nov will definitely be below normal.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Larry, I know we were above normal for KATL, I'm pretty sure it was the required two degrees that we're looking for.

Steve,

Yes, it was +2.9 there. Now to be fair, surrounding stations were not all +2+ because KATL was helped a good bit from the typical poor radiational cooling and there seemed to be more than the normal amount of this. However, the N GA stations at FFC averaged +1.8, which is close enough for the correlation to work. The SE US was largely in the +1 to +3 range. Regardless, it goes by KATL anyway. So, we've accomplished step 1, a warmer than normal Oct. Step 2 would be to at least get a borderline neutral positive/weak El Niño though getting into actual weak to low end moderate El Niño would be preferred. That's looking very likely. Step 3 will be to actually get a cold DJF. That is heavily favored due to a combo of an almost assured solid +PDO, -AO/-NAO, weakish El Niño combo. This chance would be helped even further as long as November doesn't end up warm as per the list I posted here yesterday. Based on the combo of the quite cold first few days and the overall chilly 15 day forecasts/models, the chances of a warm Nov. are already quite low. Furthermore, ENSO having been largely negative the prior few years in seems to help a bit more. So, I'm saying that the chance for a cold DJF (~-2 or colder) are VERY high. So, assuming we go ahead and get steps 2 & 3, the chances of getting well above normal wintry precip. at KATL (and likely nearly all nearby areas including the CAD areas of GA/SC/NC and many other areas of the well inland SE) will be quite a bit higher than normal. If someone were to push me into making a forecast for KATL, I'd probably go with AT LEAST ~4" (vs 2" normal...so 200%+ of normal) of SN/IP along with about a 50% chance for a major ZR (vs normal chance for all winters of only 20%). This is by a good margin the most confidently bullish I've felt about a cold AND wintry ATL and much of the SE since I've tried to forecast it based on various correlations/indices. In fact, I don't know that I'll ever feel more confident than I do about this winter for the cold and wintry combo. though, to be fair, we'd have to see what more we learn about correlations in the future and there are liable to be even more reliable new indices down the road that will give even more confidence for future winter forecasts.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

That's amazing looking at that, very surprised to see it so lopsided. You also have to get it to LC for going so cold in Nov for his winter forecast, when he released that there wasn't a single seasonal model showing a cold November. Now, we don't know what the last half of Nov is going to look like as it could torch but the first half of Nov will definitely be below normal.

Pack,

Yeah, that's why I decided to list them and also color code them. It really is quite telling. Until I actually did the research yesterday, I hadn't actually realized how helpful to cold DJF chances it would be to not get a warm November though I had an idea that it would be pretty helpful per history based statistical correlations. Yes, assuming the overall chilly looking first half of November were to verify, the chances of ending up with a warm November are obviously very low. I mean we'd need to torch bigtime in late November. I certainly am not worried about that. Anyway, now that we've gotten the warm October and I see that a warm November wouldn't be desirable, my rooting for warmth is done.

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

If some of these years are correct on the analogs, I think a good many of us are going to be paying heavy out the pocket for heating costs.  Might be time to get the space heaters and fireplace working well just in case regardless of snow threats.

 

I must admit, it would be quite amazing to actually be freezing around Christmas instead of 65degrees +.

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

If some of these years are correct on the analogs, I think a good many of us are going to be paying heavy out the pocket for heating costs.  Might be time to get the space heaters and fireplace working well just in case regardless of snow threats.

 

I must admit, it would be quite amazing to actually be freezing around Christmas instead of 65degrees +.

Got my generator and 5 days worth of propane... bring it!  :snowing:

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

You guys need to stop thinking about wasting a good pattern. Instead, think about it as a bonus good pattern. This is house money y'all!

Think of it as an opportunity for Atl to receive it's first foot of snow at the airport, and do it in Nov.  Records galore, starting with the recent early snow falling on MayRetta.  If it is going to snow in Atl, even just flurries, MayRetta will get it, guaranteed!  And this early means we are setting a new analog.  Could just as easily be the winter to end all winters, as not.  Roll of the dice.  Some winter will be the winter to end all winters, why not this one?  T

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

New Euro weeklies for SE are overall cold for the month with the strongest cold anomalies during the first half as you might guess. They suggest to me that KATL would have about a 2 to 3 degree below average November, which is fine with me as regards wintry prospects since it wouldn't be a warm one.

. The AO is + for week one followed by -AO the rest of the month

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