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The Official 2014 Fall Discussion Thread


jburns

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It is rare that we have storms in the SE with heavy snow rates for an extended period of time, and that's what it takes to build accumulations when other conditions are less than optimal.  Snow rate can trump all else, but it has to be consistent. A rate of 2 inches per hour for 20 minutes followed by 40 minutes of light snow won't get the job done. That's how we end up with "snowstorms" that last all day with one inch of accumulation.  I've mentioned on here before, that the heaviest snow I've ever been in was the last week of April in SW Virginia.  The temp never went below thirty and almost all the accumulation was in the daytime.

I found the post I referred too above.

Snowfall rate trumps everything else. The heaviest snow I was ever in occurred April 27 or 28 in Floyd County Va. in the late 70s. Long time ago and not exactly sure of the date. It had rained heavily over night and was still raining. We had just arrived at the HS school where I was teaching and was surprised to notice cars from the western end of the county with several inches of snow on them coming into the parking lot. As school started the change over occurred and it began to snow heavily. Even though the ground was wet and warm it covered completely in a few minutes. Puddles first turned to slush and then covered. The principal called NWS in Roanoke because the forecast was heavy rain but he was getting worried about bus travel. The met told him it could not be snowing because it was to warm. I won't repeat what he told the met. The met then said there must be a small pocket of cold air aloft and it would quickly change back to rain. An hour later we were dismissing school with 4 inches on the ground and snow pouring down. After the buses struggled out of the parking lot a Va HP car came into the lot to tell us not to dismiss because there was already 14" of snow in the western part of the county.

The snow continued until just after noon and had deposited about a foot when it let up and the sun popped out. You could hear the water rushing down the gutters in the street. After 30 minutes it got very dark like just before a summer thunderstorm and then all hell broke loose. It poured snow with thunder and lightning every few minutes for several hours. I grew up in NW NJ and have never seen it snow like that. By 8pm we had over 30" in town even though it was still melting from the bottom. Reports of more in the higher western end of the county. Trees were leafed out and falling all over as the snow was extremely wet and sticky. Transformers flashing green as one after another they shorted out. I periodically went outside with a sedge hammer and whacked the trunks of my trees to relieve some of the weight from the banches. In those days the clocks weren't changed to DST until April so it seemed surreal to see it snowing on full leafed trees in daylight at 8pm.

So that snow fought very wet warm ground, extremely high sun angle and marginal temps and still put down the heaviest accumulation in the shortest time I have ever seen. Little to no notice was taken of this event outside the county. Floyd is very rural and even today, 30+ years later, there is only one stop light in the entire county. Temps approached 80 the next two days and the snow disappeared almost as fast as it had fallen. We did miss two more days of school for mud. Lots of dirt roads were bus routes.

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It is rare that we have storms in the SE with heavy snow rates for an extended period of time, and that's what it takes to build accumulations when other conditions are less than optimal.  Snow rate can trump all else, but it has to be consistent. A rate of 2 inches per hour for 20 minutes followed by 40 minutes of light snow won't get the job done. That's how we end up with "snowstorms" that last all day with one inch of accumulation.  I've mentioned on here before, that the heaviest snow I've ever been in was the last week of April in SW Virginia.  The temp never went below thirty and almost all the accumulation was in the daytime. 

That perfectly describes what happened here in March 2009. We had many hours of snow, thundersnow much of the time, and heavy snow that lasted for a short time but then diminished to light to moderate snow. Probably 6" of snow came out of the sky and less than an inch accumulated.

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My story with ground temps and rain was the ULL of March 1 2009. Rain with thunder most of the day, temps upper 30s , switch to snow in afternoon, very good rates, wet ground, high march sun angle, we were in the sweet spot, S of 85 for a change, recieved 8 inches and even had 3 or 4 inches on all the roads!

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Ha, I know all about the periods of heavy snow/light snow not delivering during the day.  I lived in the Charleston, West Virginia area for a few years and we got a lot of clipper systems up there with instability-produced snow showers.  You'd get these heavy snow showers for 15 minutes that covered everything in a dusting/coating, then the snow would stop and the sun might even come out before the next snow shower roared through.  At the end of the day, you'd have nothing, despite on-and-off snow during the day.

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12z GFS has thanksgiving evening snow showers

 

Even down into N.GA.  The cold will be transient (in and out) but there will be very cold air overhead (doesn't seem to translate very well to the ground for some reason).  It doesn't look like a storm brewing by any metric but some snow showers look pretty clear on this run to me as well.

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Even down into N.GA.  The cold will be transient (in and out) but there will be very cold air overhead (doesn't seem to translate very well to the ground for some reason).  It doesn't look like a storm brewing by any metric but some snow showers look pretty clear on this run to me as well.

 

Looked like an Alberta clipper coming in from the Northwest for the showers?

 

The run looked seasonal, cutter, cold, seasonal cutter cold.  I'd guess that's going to be the pattern until the Stratosphere gets warmed and we get our blocking back.  At least it ain't warm....

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