Met1985 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Check the 18z....looks close! Yep it does and sets up a spit flow also. Just took a peak at it. Hard to go against the Euro also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Euro looks really cold in the long range. Very +PNA pattern on the 7-10 day Euro. +PNA ridge with undercutting STJ. That's exactly what we want to see as much as possible during the winter. 18z GFS at 240 is frigid! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 That Aleutian storm (919 mbars) is key to next week's weather. Signs are it will buckle the jet stream as we get into next week and send some very cold air South and East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 I know it's TWC, but my 10day forecast has rain Sun and next Wednesday , with highs in the lower 50s and lows of 31 on both days!? Could there be more wintry precip in the near future? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 I know it's TWC, but my 10day forecast has rain Sun and next Wednesday , with highs in the lower 50s and lows of 31 on both days!? Could there be more wintry precip in the near future?Not with those temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 The para GFS looks like the middle of Feb in the LR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 The para GFS looks like the middle of Feb in the LR That's a serious high pressure sliding SSE out of Canada just after 180 hours on the parallel run. The parallel and the regular GFS don't match at all in the medium to long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 That's a serious high pressure sliding SSE out of Canada just after 180 hours on the parallel run. The parallel and the regular GFS don't match at all in the medium to long range. Well...comparing the current operational model (27km resolution) to the parallel (13km), I would think it would be obvious that one may have a different look than the other at Days 6-7-8...that's why the GFS is being upgraded Anyway... on the the parallel run we have a 1050mb surface high dropping into the Northern Plains...that verbatim would cover the Eastern 2/3rds of America in January type cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Euro looks pretty durn cold at the end of its run as well. I think it's getting pretty safe to say we will have a below normal Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Euro and Para-GFS looks identical temp wise. Well below normal east of the Rockies in 7-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Euro and Para-GFS looks identical temp wise. Well below normal east of the Rockies in 7-10 days. Just a personal opinion of mine...the European has been golden over the past few weeks in sniffing out events in the Day 7-8 range. If this new version of the GFS can get in that same camp it will make medium range forecasting a lot more desirable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Highs in the 30s on 11/12 per the 12z GFS-parallel with a low near 20. (Yes, Amwx Model Center now has the parallel and the13km res GFS as well) 4 pm sfc temp on 11/12: 7 am sfc temp 11/13: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 You can thank that massive beast churning in the Western Pacific, Typhoon Euri is heading for the Bering Sea and gotta believe that will amp the flow and send a piece of cold downstream... Yup. Found this earlier on Typhoon Nuri. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/04/typhoon-nuri-forecast-to-kick-start-a-parade-of-cold-outbreaks-in-eastern-u-s/?tid=trending_strip_5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Tony, I agree that the bulk of N GA has absolutely nothing about which to complain based on the winters 2008-9 through 2013-14 as a whole. If a north Georgian were to suggest otherwise, it would suggest being out of touch with climo. However, to be fair, I don't know that anyone in N GA is actually complaining. If anyone were doing that from there, I'd probably put them in the chronic whiner/complainer/rarely content category. thats for sure - lol. i am sure not complaining. the last couple of winters have been fantastic - reminds me a lot of the 70s/80s with multiple chances, several events, snow, ice and the works. last year's addition of extreme cold just added to the continuing of great winters. guess i am just nervous that our streak may end at some point haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Here's a good read on how Typhoon Nuri will likely affect our (US) weather next week... http://mashable.com/2014/11/04/how-super-typhoon-nuri-increases-the-risk-of-extreme-weather-in-north-america/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Just a personal opinion of mine...the European has been golden over the past few weeks in sniffing out events in the Day 7-8 range. If this new version of the GFS can get in that same camp it will make medium range forecasting a lot more desirable... Yeah the Euro has been really doing well recently recognizing pattern changes in the medium range. Would be nice to put some extra stock into the GFS also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 thats for sure - lol. i am sure not complaining. the last couple of winters have been fantastic - reminds me a lot of the 70s/80s with multiple chances, several events, snow, ice and the works. last year's addition of extreme cold just added to the continuing of great winters. guess i am just nervous that our streak may end at some point hahaOn the other side NW SC is complaining a little. Been left out on some really good opportunities but my hope is this year we make up for it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 The Euro really drops the hammer on the 7-10 day period. Very impressive cold for anytime of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 thats for sure - lol. i am sure not complaining. the last couple of winters have been fantastic - reminds me a lot of the 70s/80s with multiple chances, several events, snow, ice and the works. last year's addition of extreme cold just added to the continuing of great winters. guess i am just nervous that our streak may end at some point haha the last couple of winters were fantastic where you live? 2012-13 winter was horrible here. I think we're due a few good winters in a row after the horrible 2011-12 and 2012-13 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 0z GFS still has icebox conditions in the long range. Good times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 The Euro is as steady as I have seen in the mid to long range with the extreme cold for this time of the year coming down from Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 This is part of the trigger... .WEATHER BRIEFING.THIS WEATHER SITUATION IS DEVELOPING FROM REMNANTS OF SUPERTYPHOON NURI.TODAY...NURI IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF TOKYO.THE CYCLONE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC LATE THURSDAYAS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WESTERN BERING SEA. AS THIS HAPPENS...THELOW WILL UNDERGO A PERIOD OF RAPID CYCLOGENESIS. CURRENT FORECASTMODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOW DROPS FROM AROUND 970 MB LATETHURSDAY NIGHT...TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 918 TO 922 MB LATE FRIDAYNIGHT. THIS WOULD CREATE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT AS THE CURRENT RECORDLOWEST PRESSURE OBSERVED IN THE BERING SEA IS 925 MB MEASURED ATDUTCH HARBOR ON OCTOBER 25 1977..WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.A LARGE SWATH OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROMSHEMYA EASTWARD TO ADAK AND ATKA LATE FRIDAY AND AGAIN ONSATURDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 45 FEET OR POSSIBLYHIGHER...DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AND RESULTING HIGHWINDS. EXPECT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR ALL UNSHELTERED MARINEVESSELS. .PRIBILOF ISLANDS.STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS SATURDAYAND SUNDAY. HIGH SEAS OF 22 TO 32 FEET ON A PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLYFETCH ARE EXPECTED. EXPECT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR ALL UNSHELTEREDMARINE VESSELS..SOUTHWEST ALASKA.MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND COASTAL EROSION MAY DEVELOP ON SUNDAYAND MONDAY AS HIGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN BERING REACH SOUTHWESTALASKA. HOWEVER...THESE SEAS SHOULD NOT BE AS HIGH AS WHAT THEPRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL EXPERIENCE..FORECAST CONFIDENCE.THERE IS HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF THELOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ASTO THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSSTHE BERING SEA.THE SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND THIS STATEMENTUPDATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHEN NEW DATA ISAVAILABLE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR MARINE VHF, NOAA WEATHER RADIO, THEALASKA WEATHER SHOW AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR UPDATES...ASWELL AS THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SOCIAL MEDIA ANDWEATHER.GOV/ANCHORAGE.$MCLAY/SNIDER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 I see that you guys didn't check out Robert's update last night on the site...what he said and hinted at would have for sure been mentioned on here already... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 I see that you guys didn't check out Robert's update last night on the site...what he said and hinted at would have for sure been mentioned on here already... I agree, he is bullish and worth the subscription price. I recommend him to everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 I agree, he is bullish and worth the subscription price. I recommend him to everyone. +1 I've always liked Robert's post. Well thought out, and well explained. I rank Robert right up near the top of all the people that forecast winter weather in the southeast. Worth every penny to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 its too early for this pattern to help us like we would want. That's too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 its too early for this pattern to help us like we would want. That's too bad.If we are getting " January " cold in Nov, can't we get January snow in Nov? It doesn't matter what time of year it is, if the patterns cold enough, it can still produce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Check out the main ENSO thread. Indicators continue to strongly suggest El Niño is finally starting. Instead of reposting here, just go to this link if interested : http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39826-2014-enso-mega-thread/page-25#entry3111577 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 its too early for this pattern to help us like we would want. That's too bad. That's only if the pattern doesn't repeat. I think we got so badly burned in 2011 that it's tough to take a lot of this seriously....but what we know is that patterns have a tendency to repeat. If we can get a -AO and -NAO started early this year and it repeats then we will be in serious business. Now add in some serious +PNA and you have a recipe for a great winter especially for your neck of the woods. Time will tell what happens but I find it hard not to be excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 I understand the tendency of not getting excited this early in the season. However it seems like in recent years the weather has done crazy things and things that just does not fit climatology. For example the crazy cool air mass we had in July I never would expected that. So would a November snowstorm for someone in the southeast/mid-south be that huge of a surprise anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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