DaculaWeather Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Below normal heights from both the Euro deterministic and ensembles through the first week of November, with a big ridge in the center of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Remember Metro Atlanta's elevation is officialy 1050 feet, and ranges up to 3200 feet in Dawson county. I am at 1124 feet 2 miles from downtown. I've seen it snow in Atlanta on Nov 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Sooooo..... How did the Euro look last night? Did it keep the extreme cutoff or did it move away? Yeah I posted about it a little while ago but it got lost in the metro discussion. Euro lost it and only has a northwest flow event for the mountains caving to the northern track idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 While the GFS has been too progressive with the low, here's what it shows for snow up north next Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Thanks guys. Unfortunate but not surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Minimum Temperature for the Last 24 hours ending at 12:00 UTC, 10/26/2014 http://www.daculaweather.com/4_world_extremes.php?extremes=North Still not as cold as the southern Hemisphere yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Yeah I posted about it a little while ago but it got lost in the metro discussion. Euro lost it and only has a northwest flow event for the mountains caving to the northern track idea.Yea we just end up with rain out in front of the cold front maybe a chance at a flizzard for those in the perfect spot. Personally I have a hard time believing the air would be cold enough either way but stranger things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 I just asked my wife who is a lifelong (48 years) resident of Atlanta (and a teacher) and has only lived in two metro counties all her life... 1. What do you consider the metro area? - She listed 5 counties 2. Have you ever heard of the Metro Statistical Area? - No Although she's one of the smartest people I know, geography is not her forte. But I think you would get similar responses from just about anyone walking down the street here. Atlanta is sprawling and covers a massive area. But never would the north Georgia mountains be considered the Atlanta metro area. the only counties I consider metro based on proximity to Atlanta are Fulton, Cobb, Gwinnett, Dekalb, Clayton, Douglas, Fayette, Henry, Rockdale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 US National Weather Service Wilmington NC2 hours ago On this date last year, it was literally freezing with a record low of 29 at Florence. Lumberton also dipped to 29 degrees. North Myrtle Beach was 33 degrees, a record there. Most inland areas ended the growing season on this date last year. #ilmwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 We still have several days for this solution next week plays out. One thing I am sure of is the cold that will be coming in next weekend. We will probably see solution change after solution change through the rest of the week but I do not expect anything really. I Kind of hope nothing really comes out of it as I would rather have this type setup in the winter and not November 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Minimum Temperature for the Last 24 hours ending at 12:00 UTC, 10/26/2014 http://www.daculaweather.com/4_world_extremes.php?extremes=North nh_temps_26th_8am.jpg Still not as cold as the southern Hemisphere yet sh_temps_26th_8am.jpg wow, and its almost summer in the southern hemisphere ( just a month away from meteorological summer) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Created a little loop of the 8 AM US temps from Monday through Sunday. It takes up a lot of screen area and if you hover over the images, it pauses the loop. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_sample_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Even though Euro lost the big bowling ball... wouldn't be surprised if it brings it back 12z. But either way still a rather substaintal difference between euro and gfs. If you really wanted to believe the Euro atm.. The first flakes of the Season for the mountains of VA,NC and even outside(including CLT,GSO,Durham even in the coastal plain) the mountains next sunday as the S/W crosses that region before phasing off the coast over the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Euro doesn't bring back the idea of the cutoff this run. Leaves a little bit of moisture back for a NWF snowfall in the WNC high mountains but nothing like what it has shown in previous runs. This is a more progressive solution with blocking lagging behind a day or two. It could end up being a pretty decent Northwest flow snow though with places like Mt. Mitchell picking up 3-6" but I would say just flurries to a dusting in the valley's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Euro doesn't bring back the idea of the cutoff this run. Leaves a little bit of moisture back for a NWF snowfall in the WNC high mountains but nothing like what it has shown in previous runs. This is a more progressive solution with blocking lagging behind a day or two. It could end up being a pretty decent Northwest flow snow though with places like Mt. Mitchell picking up 3-6" but I would say just flurries to a dusting in the valley's. The Euro solution fits climo the best. I am sure the solution will change from day to day as we are still a week a way but it is interesting to track something like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 The Euro solution fits climo the best. I am sure the solution will change from day to day as we are still a week a way but it is interesting to track something like this. Yeah met85 I am just glad it is model watching season again! Regardless of what we get out of this, the next couple of months are going to be interesting and full of surprises. At least we won't have to wait till late January to track a fantasy storm lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Yeah met85 I am just glad it is model watching season again! Regardless of what we get out of this, the next couple of months are going to be interesting and full of surprises. At least we won't have to wait till late January to track a fantasy storm lol. Yes I think we will have lots to track in the coming months. Should be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chattanooga,_TN-GA_Metropolitan_Statistical_Area Where the hell is a link for the population of just the Chattanooga Metro, since that's a different term apparently.. can't seem to find one. Oh wait, it doesn't exist! The Chattanooga Metro and The Chattanooga MSA are synonymous.. Thanks for the education though.. Hey Genius, let me see if you can get this through your Tennessee brain. No one and I mean no one looks at MSA. No one. You keep sighting links from wikepedia. Brick wrote Wikepedia at the same time Al Gore invented the internet. I have lived in 2 counties in Georgia over 37 years since I was born in Fulton County at Northside Hospital. One of those counties was Hall county. North East of METRO ATLANTA. When I lived there I was not in the metro Atlanta area. Now I live in Gwinnett County. I am now in METRO ATLANTA. All of the local tv stations, government agencies, sports teams, red necks, idiots, homeless and most people from Tennessee know that Metro Atlanta consist of about 12 counties and that Dawson County is not one of them. Most certainly Dawson County is not Metro Atlanta. Dawson County is a "Mountain County." It is stated as a "Mountain County" because... get this... it's in the mountains. When one tries to compare the Metro Area of Chattanooga to the Metro Area of KATL.... It's sorta like the sign I saw at the urinal the other day... "Come a little closer, it's not as big as you think." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Hey Genius, let me see if you can get this through your Tennessee brain. No one and I mean no one looks at MSA. No one. You keep sighting links from wikepedia. Brick wrote Wikepedia at the same time Al Gore invented the internet. I have lived in 2 counties in Georgia over 37 years since I was born in Fulton County at Northside Hospital. One of those counties was Hall county. North East of METRO ATLANTA. When I lived there I was not in the metro Atlanta area. Now I live in Gwinnett County. I am now in METRO ATLANTA. All of the local tv stations, government agencies, sports teams, red necks, idiots, homeless and most people from Tennessee know that Metro Atlanta consist of about 12 counties and that Dawson County is not one of them. Most certainly Dawson County is not Metro Atlanta. Dawson County is a "Mountain County." It is stated as a "Mountain County" because... get this... it's in the mountains. When one tries to compare the Metro Area of Chattanooga to the Metro Area of KATL.... It's sorta like the sign I saw at the urinal the other day... "Come a little closer, it's not as big as you think." You can mouth off all you want, but MSAs are well-defined by the census bureau based on population statistics and density. The data is publicly available. Wikipedia is by no means the primary source. Maybe you don't like it, but that doesn't make it untrue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 27, 2014 Author Share Posted October 27, 2014 Hey Genius, let me see if you can get this through your Tennessee brain. No one and I mean no one looks at MSA. No one. You keep sighting links from wikepedia. Brick wrote Wikepedia at the same time Al Gore invented the internet. I have lived in 2 counties in Georgia over 37 years since I was born in Fulton County at Northside Hospital. One of those counties was Hall county. North East of METRO ATLANTA. When I lived there I was not in the metro Atlanta area. Now I live in Gwinnett County. I am now in METRO ATLANTA. All of the local tv stations, government agencies, sports teams, red necks, idiots, homeless and most people from Tennessee know that Metro Atlanta consist of about 12 counties and that Dawson County is not one of them. Most certainly Dawson County is not Metro Atlanta. Dawson County is a "Mountain County." It is stated as a "Mountain County" because... get this... it's in the mountains. When one tries to compare the Metro Area of Chattanooga to the Metro Area of KATL.... It's sorta like the sign I saw at the urinal the other day... "Come a little closer, it's not as big as you think." Coming in 15 hours late and stirring things up again is not appreciated. A less aggressive tone would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Coming in 15 hours late and stirring things up again is not appreciated. A less aggressive tone would be.Who'd have thought people would get so up-in-arms about MSAs and CSAs? It's such a frickin' non-issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Who'd have thought people would get so up-in-arms about MSAs and CSAs? It's such a frickin' non-issue. it is a little silly isn't it ? I mean, who cares ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 I have lived in 2 counties in Georgia over 37 years since I was born in Fulton County I'm sorry about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Could not be happier with what the GFS is currently showing: Dry cool Halloween and a cool shot the day after that may give us our first freeze. From day 7 onward(16) it looks like a great pattern to build Canadian snow cover. Siberian snow cover has been mostly highlighted but we also need some good coverage on our side of the hemisphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Could not be happier with what the GFS is currently showing: Dry cool Halloween and a cool shot the day after that may give us our first freeze. From day 7 onward(16) it looks like a great pattern to build Canadian snow cover. Siberian snow cover has been mostly highlighted but we also need some good coverage on our side of the hemisphere. It's also showing some very cold air bottled up north of 50 degrees N up there after about day 7. Would certainly support a snow pack expansion across most of Canada. I just don't see any mechanisms to get the core of the cold south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Who'd have thought people would get so up-in-arms about MSAs and CSAs? It's such a frickin' non-issue. You of all people should understand the essence of arguing dumb subjects with dumb people. I am reading through the board and I see a poster picking a fight with one of the better posters on the board about something so stupid, so yeah I piled on late and over something stupid. It was more directed at the poster. I could care less about MSAs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 It's also showing some very cold air bottled up north of 50 degrees N up there after about day 7. Would certainly support a snow pack expansion across most of Canada. I just don't see any mechanisms to get the core of the cold south.At this time of year I think it's better to keep the real cold air bottled up in Canada. This allows more snow buildup that will help us later this winter. When we get the big pushes of cold air south usually there is a counter push of warm air into western Canada (which melts snowpack). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 At this time of year I think it's better to keep the real cold air bottled up in Canada. This allows more snow buildup that will help us later this winter. When we get the big pushes of cold air south usually there is a counter push of warm air into western Canada (which melts snowpack). Falls, If that were the case, I'd think that there'd be a partial negative correlation between November and DJF temperatures here in the SE. However, I'm not aware that there is one though I could check some data to make sure I didn't overlook this. There is this saying fwiw: "The wx in November the winter will remember ." If there is validity to this, there is a partial positive as opposed to partial negative correlation . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Falls, If that were the case, I'd think that there'd be a partial negative correlation between November and DJF temperatures here in the SE. However, I'm not aware that there is one though I could check some data to make sure I didn't overlook this. There is this saying fwiw: "The wx in November the winter will remember ." If there is validity to this, there is a partial positive as opposed to partial negative correlation . (only going off memory) It seems in the past that the correlation is more at the end of November. (so) Cold Thanksgiving = cold winter. Warm(ish) first half of November is good. Also I don't think we want to see a dump of the cold air in Canada southward(..really at anytime). Many times this does push the warm air back up northward (Indian summer setups). I think bits a pieces of cold air are really what we need. Kind of like what the GFS is showing; just cold enough for some to maybe see their first freeze but nothing that will break records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 (only going off memory) It seems in the past that the correlation is more at the end of November. (so) Cold Thanksgiving = cold winter. Warm(ish) first half of November is good. Also I don't think we want to see a dump of the cold air in Canada southward(..really at anytime). Many times this does push the warm air back up northward (Indian summer setups). I think bits a pieces of cold air are really what we need. Kind of like what the GFS is showing; just cold enough for some to maybe see their first freeze but nothing that will break records. Exactly what areas may see their first freeze next weekend ? Certainly not in Georgia. FFC has raised our temps big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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