Kory Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 12z GFS coming in colder with a stronger high pressure initally (1037mb) over Iowa/Minnesota instead of the great lakes but then the high weakens a bit whereas previous runs keep it stronger but it still centered 200 miles further south. Looks like a decent NWFS for the NC mountains. Has a nice snowstorm for the North.Not much blocking on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Not much blocking on that run. Yeah that will be the problem that must be resolved if we want this storm to bring snow to the south. Canadian now rolling... Oh the joys of model watching season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Not much blocking on that run.Will only hear that about 211 more times before March! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 There just isn't enough moisture on the models from what I can see to give anything but NW Flow snow for the higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 The November sun angle is way too strong! Rain for everyone except Mt Mitchell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Awfully warm week ahead for the end of Oct . Man oh man am I hoping for the big cool down next weekend!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Did you mean to include the word only at the end of that statement, Marion? Because if the Euro is showing snowfall for Asheville and Boone, then of course it would also be snowing at the high peaks. The ground temps would be fine for the mountain cities, so are you suggesting that the upper air properties would only support snowfall for the highest of the mountain peaks? What I was meaning was that if the euro adjusted itself away from its normal SE bias, you're probably talking more a storm that develops along the Apps rather than along the coastline. In that case the cold pool would still be good enough for the higher peaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Go figure...the 12z Euro looks different already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 12z Euro still advertising a cut off low over the WNC mountains. Pretty large cold pool imo at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 12z Euro still advertising a cut off low over the WNC mountains. Pretty large cold pool imo at 500mb. This could be the most impressive early November cold shot we've had in some years. Euro is swinging through -8 air at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Massive cutoff low on the euro again at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 This could be the most impressive early November cold shot we've had in some years. Euro is swinging through -8 air at 850. Yeah 12z Euro puts most of NC in the ballgame for flakes per weatherbell snowfall maps (even though they tend to have some flaws ha). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I'm still skeptical as to how cold this will be. We don't have much of a snow pack...that will definitely moderate temps at the lower levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I'm wondering how cold it will be too. Probably not cold at all for us in Dixie. James spann says early November will be warm and dry. FFC says it will be normal to slightly below for temps. Hopefully TWC is right. They are saying highs in the 50s next weekend. But I guess TWC is not a reliable source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I'm still skeptical as to how cold this will be. We don't have much of a snow pack...that will definitely moderate temps at the lower levels.The ULL will make it's own cold air!Man this feels good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Like March/April I love tracking big phasing ULLs in the fall even if its rain....as a fan of meteorology they are fun to watch, lets hope the EURO is on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Big fail incoming with weenies cliff jumping. I can already taste the tears. Yummy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 25, 2014 Author Share Posted October 25, 2014 Big fail incoming with weenies cliff jumping. I can already taste the tears. Yummy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 RAH long range.. THE BOTTOM LINE... THE PROBABILITY OF THE FIRST KILLING FROST OR FREEZE FOR OUR REGION IS INCREASING FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE 50S BY SATURDAY... WITH LOWS BY SATURDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY ENDING THE GROWING SEASON FOR MOST OF OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES IF NOT MORE OF THE REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I'm wondering how cold it will be too. Probably not cold at all for us in Dixie. James spann says early November will be warm and dry. FFC says it will be normal to slightly below for temps. Hopefully TWC is right. They are saying highs in the 50s next weekend. But I guess TWC is not a reliable source. Have you ever seen James Spann or FFC jump on board forecasting a major snowstorm 7 days out? Why would you expect anything different when it comes to forecasting a significant temperature swing? If the models stay consistent on a cold weekend next weekend, they'll gradually forecast lower highs/lows throughout next week leading up to the weekend. Be patient. I remember this being mentioned here before, but TWC relies heavily on the GFS past day 7 if I'm not mistaken so my understanding is whatever the model runs are saying from days 7-10 it will likely be reflected in their forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I heard someone saying that they were hoping there wouldn't be a big storm in the fall since that may reduce our chances of having a cold, snowy winter, like in 2012 with Sandy. Is there really a correlation between the two ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RONALD B Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I heard someone saying that they were hoping there wouldn't be a big storm in the fall since that may reduce our chances of having a cold, snowy winter, like in 2012 with Sandy. Is there really a correlation between the two ? Thats only in oct snowstorm!nov don't count in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Thats only in oct snowstorm!nov don't count in that. wouldn't this upcoming potential storm be in October or is it going to wait until Sat, Nov 1st ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 wouldn't this upcoming potential storm be in October or is it going to wait until Sat, Nov 1st ?I don't think weather follows the Gregorian calendar. Don't put to much wait into the October storm theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 wouldn't this upcoming potential storm be in October or is it going to wait until Sat, Nov 1st ?its going to wait until 11/1/14@12:01am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I heard someone saying that they were hoping there wouldn't be a big storm in the fall since that may reduce our chances of having a cold, snowy winter, like in 2012 with Sandy. Is there really a correlation between the two ? I recently found a partial correlation of Oct./early Nov. nontropical related nor'easter frequency (along the NE US coast) and warm ENSO. So, if anything, the one they just had up there is not at all a surprise since we're in warm ENSO. If there is a very rare 2nd one as per the Euro, it would make sense that it would be a warm ENSO year to have it. Due to the rarity and it being so far out in time, I wouldn't even consider a bet on the Euro having the right idea this far out. However, should a 2nd nor'easter occur up there, the closest analog I could find would be the great Oct. of 1991, which had a midmonth nor'easter followed by the Perfect Storm. That, too, was a warm ENSO. Of all of the years 1968-2004, 1991 was the only one for which I could find two although the 2nd one was partially tropical related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Link to Oct. nor'easter/warm ENSO connection thread: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44716-years-with-nontropical-oct-noreasters/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Folks this is an early season classic storm with cold air aloft working its way to the surface. it's not going to be cold over the entire Southeast it will be the coldest where the cold pool resides plus mountains will also benefit from this don't make it out more than it is. once you get to early November it's usually cold enough that you can start entertaining snow for areas with elevation 3000 feet or higher. East Tennessee, Smokies, Western Carolina's North Georgia lok the coldest with temps possible in the 40's in the daytime hours. Once you roughly get to Atlanta to Birmingham and you've lost elevation it'll be no big deal it'll be well up into the 50s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 18z GFS says what storm? What cold? Ha I love it, this is what we live for fellow weather enthusiast. Which model will win out, the more realistic GFS solution or the wild solution the Euro has hinted at? Bets should be on the GFS but we can't discount the Euro completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 18z GFS says what storm? What cold? Ha I love it, this is what we live for fellow weather enthusiast. Which model will win out, the more realistic GFS solution or the wild solution the Euro has hinted at? Bets should be on the GFS but we can't discount the Euro completely.If take the euro at 8 days over GFS anyday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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