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September Discusssion--winter bound or bust


moneypitmike

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Wonder if BOS might get to Oct 31??

 

Most places over the northeast, midwest and mid atlantic are likely to have a later than normal freeze date this fall.

The average first freeze date at BOS is in early November. The last October first freeze at BOS was 10/31/2002, and there have been only 4 years out of the last 30 where BOS had its first freeze before November. The last ten first freezes at BOS:

 

2013: Nov 4

2012: Nov 6

2011: Nov 24

2010: Nov 3

2009: Dec 6

2008: Nov 3

2007: Nov 9

2006: Nov 21

2005: Nov 12

2004: Nov 9

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I agree - could be some decent storms in central PA

 

The NAM is a tad more bullish but could see some pretty hefty winds aloft, particularly at 500mb along with some fairly high surfaced-based instability for this time of year.  Can't even rule out some supercells or some embedded supercell structures within a broken line.  

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Looking at the 00z GGEM more closely it's pretty clear what's going on there. The system gets tugged almost on shore initially near Charelston, so it's taking a more direct route up the coast. When you consider the strength, that's an entirely different issue, but I'm not sure the track is a lock at this point.

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Lots of dews high-20s to low-40s this afternoon. What could have been tonight...  Still think we get a sharp enough drop off late this afternoon and early evening to set the low for the day in many spots that didn't get very low this morning.

I almost did a doubletake when my Davis shows a 45 dewpoint here.

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Probably close to 80 if we can get sun inland. May be a seabreeze. MOS has 77 for ORH.

 

Wedding in Nahant on Sunday... hoping for one of these PRE-like double barreled precip zones, enhanced along the front to the west and another to the SE closer to the low.   Onshore breeze isn't too big a deal this time of year.

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Wedding in Nahant on Sunday... hoping for one of these PRE-like double barreled precip zones, enhanced along the front to the west and another to the SE closer to the low.   Onshore breeze isn't too big a deal this time of year.

 

There's a chance that you luck out in between the rain bands. Should be a good day I think.

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