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September Discusssion--winter bound or bust


moneypitmike

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Ah the age old weenie wishing of what would happen if they were surrounded or located on high terrain. I picture what life would be like in my locale on 2,000ft higher. Pretty much would have no trees though from the LLJs... :lol:

 

Haha yeah, a wind-swept plateau.

 

My favorite one to wonder about, is what would New England climo look like if the ORH Hills were really like a 4,000ft+ wall.  Think of the possibilities on a moist easterly flow.  And NW flow would bring upslope too, summertime t-storms forming over the ridge and drifting downwind, going to town on the heat and moisture over the Coastal Plain between ORH-BOS, lol.  The possibilities are endless. Of course if that was the case, it may never precipitate in the CT River Valley in any nor'easters or bigger easterly flow events haha.

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Haha yeah, a wind-swept plateau.

 

My favorite one to wonder about, is what would New England climo look like if the ORH Hills were really like a 4,000ft+ wall.  Think of the possibilities on a moist easterly flow.  And NW flow would bring upslope too, summertime t-storms forming over the ridge and drifting downwind, going to town on the heat and moisture over the Coastal Plain between ORH-BOS, lol.  The possibilities are endless. Of course if that was the case, it may never precipitate in the CT River Valley in any nor'easters or bigger easterly flow events haha.

 

Chinook on west winds. 

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Oh yeah certainly...BTV was 14 degrees warmer than here last night when I went to sleep.  The elevation difference is only 400ft or so, just different topography.  They get owned on those south winds.  So from a climo standpoint, today will get a low of 33-34 for MVL for 12a-1a before rising, while BTV's low will go down as 48-49F. 

 

But yeah, sustained near 30mph, gusting around 40mph now at the airport...its a south wind factory.

 

Yeah is blowing pretty hard here. Every now and then the house creeks and you hear a dull groan outside. 40 mph gusts are definitely reasonable.

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Looks like the last week to five days of the month should finish out with positive anomalies across the board.  The degree of which will depend upon "weather" the models are correct in nuanced layout of lower tropospheric features.  By placing surface ridging, and anchoring it, right over head, that is preventing a better deep layer return flow which would otherwise install warm llv thickness into said height dome. Instead, feabling diabatic contribution only slowly rots the air mass toward positive, only given lengnthier time spans.  

 

The 00z Euro did warm the 850 temperatures some for D5 and 6, which may be an attempt at modulation ... We'll see.  But days of 582+dm heights in the absence of tuck events usually means a pretty significant warm event.  

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Meh color here. Some. But no big difference from the norm. I bet it will come and go quickly though

 

I'd say we're behind so far up here. I'm hoping for some great color, 2012 & 2013 were spectacular with 2013 probably the best I can remember. 2011 was terrible. I'm guessing an average year. Pros: Normal rainfall, Cons: Early Freeze, Lack of Sun.

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I'd say we're behind so far up here. I'm hoping for some great color, 2012 & 2013 were spectacular with 2013 probably the best I can remember. 2011 was terrible. I'm guessing an average year. Pros: Normal rainfall, Cons: Early Freeze, Lack of Sun.

We may be but hard to really tell until peak gets here...we may accelerate quickly by Oct 1st. As long as peak is sometime between Oct 1-14, it's pretty normal. If we are getting to like the 21st that's late.

2013 was the best foliage I can remember since living up here.

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We headed out to disk golf this morning and I have to say ... out along Rt 2 from Ayer up to just shy of Orange there was plenty of early color.  

 

About evenly split between sick brown/yellow pals, to vibrancy in red and oranges.  Swamp Maples are a done deal for change, but others starting to go.  I don't monitor foliage year to year, but this is definitely overall an early-ish appeal.  How much so ... or even if so, not sure. But it definitely "seems" early.  

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Euro with a sneaky backdoor kind of look in the extended keeping the true torch out of New England

It's been advertising that for a few runs now, but 00Z looked more impressive. Ens look pretty warm through d15 so expect more warmth than cool. The end of Sep into early Oct is a good time to run well above.

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That is not what i said, He said 1-3", Isn't that better then no snow at all?

I think right now if you saw some wet ground you would be rejoicing

ive always said I get as excited for 1-3 as I do 6-12. As far as the rain .. At this point just let the drought go on . Get the leaves down early and have the forest fires burn them
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That's really the point, any snow is good snow but some QPF is not always good QPF. The same bird fart QPF in winter would have him doing naked snow angels, but right now the drought has gotten to him when it comes to rain.

 

I don't mind this dry spell up here right now, It was a wet cool summer for the most part, Garden is waning so its not hurting us in that respect, And could give 2 ****z what the lawn looks like, Its browning now and mowing only on occasions, Frost is going to slow that down as well, Would like to see a few coastal systems in october though heading into november

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I don't mind this dry spell up here right now, It was a wet cool summer for the most part, Garden is waning so its not hurting us in that respect, And could give 2 ****z what the lawn looks like, Its browning now and mowing only on occasions, Frost is going to slow that down as well, Would like to see a few coastal systems in october though heading into november

 

Actually, for purely selfish research reasons I could use a few widespread, cool rainfall events to tweak dual-pol a bit.

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