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September Discusssion--winter bound or bust


moneypitmike

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Ct at the top is 86.13 miles wide, dividing that by 3 yields 28.17 miles for each northern section. Tolland is 30.1 miles to the RI border so he is technically in the central CT zone as defined by strict mileage, if only divided by East and West then East Windsor would mark the delineation spot

 

Even though it's relatively small, it's funny how hard it is to divide up but perhaps it's size is the reason.  Different places over lap like I could be in northern, central or eastern CT or all three at the same time.  Sometimes it's even harder when a place can be in more than one category at a time.

 

For a north south delineation I use Hartford.  Anything south of there is southern CT and north of there is northern CT.  For east west, you can use the CT river but it makes that SE turn at Middletown and I wouldn't consider Old Saybrook to be western CT so you really have to use an imaginary line south of there.

 

For dividing it up into thirds, I'd use the county lines and I would use Litchfield, Fairfield and New Haven Counties as western CT.  Hartford and Middlesex counties would be central CT.  Tolland, Windham and New London would be eastern.

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Even though it's relatively small, it's funny how hard it is to divide up but perhaps it's size is the reason.  Different places over lap like I could be in northern, central or eastern CT or all three at the same time.  Sometimes it's even harder when a place can be in more than one category at a time.

 

For a north south delineation I use Hartford.  Anything south of there is southern CT and north of there is northern CT.  For east west, you can use the CT river but it makes that SE turn at Middletown and I wouldn't consider Old Saybrook to be western CT so you really have to use an imaginary line south of there.

 

For dividing it up into thirds, I'd use the county lines and I would use Litchfield, Fairfield and New Haven Counties as western CT.  Hartford and Middlesex counties would be central CT.  Tolland, Windham and New London would be eastern.

 

I definitely wouldn't consider New Haven, Meriden, or Wallingford western Connecticut though.

 

I've generally used Rt 8 to delineate western and central CT... as for eastern CT I'd say Tolland-Old Saybrook is a pretty good line. 

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It's funny how .05" of rain is useless, but in winter we'd all be posting about how nice it looks outside with hours of 2-5sm -SN lol.

 

 

It would be like an inverted trough in the winter with good snow growth and a general 1-3"...someone lucky picks up 4-5" in a lolli of 0.20" L.E.

 

Totally different than 0.05-0.15" of light rain...in terms of sensible wx.

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It would be like an inverted trough in the winter with good snow growth and a general 1-3"...someone lucky picks up 4-5" in a lolli of 0.20" L.E.

Totally different than 0.05-0.15" of light rain...in terms of sensible wx.

Oh you don't have to tell me...I know when we get 3.5" and JSpin cores 0.08". Much different. But I wasn't even talking that, just how 0.02" of QPF as snow is nice to look at.

It was just the differences in our attitudes. We love mood snow in the winter, call it currier and Ives, but that same amount in rain barely wets the ground.

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Maybe the NAM will verify lol

 

 

Yeah... OKX is running in VCP 212 this morning. They've been putting it in 12/212 for every rain event recently. I like getting the extra slice for no other reason than the cool looking loops.

 

Right, I should have said VCPs 12 OR 212, what are generally termed the convective VCPs.

 

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  • 11 months later...

I just went back and found the article I was reading earlier on Boston.com... it said September but maybe someone can clarify that with the stats. I'm not sure why the author would be leaning away from a blockbuster winter, lol, especially considering what is discussed on here.

http://www.boston.com/mt/lifestyle/house/blog/growing-wisdom/2014/09/many_of_you_have_heard.html?p1=Topofpage%3ACarousel_sub_headline

Boston Snowfall

As you know this has been one of the driest Septembers on record. As an interesting exercise, I decided to look at other dry Septembers and what the following winter brought to Boston in terms of snowfall. Since snow is highly variable, this method isn’t a perfect predictor for your town because some of the years Boston didn’t get much snow, places like Worcester got a lot more.

For example, in the winter of 1957/58 Boston had about 45 inches while Worcester had just under 100 inches of snow. That winter took place with a strong El Nino which likely brought big storms, but also warm air off the ocean. This year El Nino isn’t expected to be so strong.

Dry is somewhat arbitrary so,for this exercise I considered exceptionally dry to be under 1 inch of rain. Here's what I found. There are only 12 such Septembers since the late 1800s and 10 have them were followed by normal or below normal snowfall. Two of the winters did have above normal snowfall, and one had record snowfall. (1995-1996), but both of those occurred in La Nina years of which this isn't going to be.

I love looking at current fall weather to help predict what the upcoming winter will be like. There are some correlations between the weather in October and November and what the following three months brings. To that end, the following map shows the National Weather Service predicting our overall warm pattern to continue the rest of the fall.

This is why I like to wait until the fall is complete before really committing to a winter forecast. That said, based on the upcoming El Nino and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation being in a cold mode, many have predicted a cold and snowy winter in the east since early spring.

Bottom line, I'm leaning away from a blockbuster snowy winter, but let's see how the next 4 weeks plays out and then revisit the winter season. I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts on the weather or any of the blogs on Twitter @growingwisdom

lol
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