September Discusssion--winter bound or bust

[CoastalWx]

Down to 61 with fog rolling in.

[HimoorWx]

62 here with a gusty wind after a high of 75. It was raining leaves on the way home on 138. There's almost a hint of drizzle in the air!

[Ginx snewx]

Acorns bouncing off me dome,could have used a helmet raking the yard.

[Damage In Tolland]

Put all the deck furniture away in the shed for winter. Deck is ready for leaf blowing and then deep snowcover

[Typhoon Tip]

This air mass cutting into NE zones behind this BD carries an aroma quite reminiscent of a strong BD in early May.  You go from that dewy smell of summer, to a homogenized mixture of ocean with perhaps coastal biota and so forth... 

 

Similar temperature spread as an early May even, too.  I bet this air mass keeps the lows tonight relatively elevated.  60 and drizzle slab of NW Atlantic

[CoastalWx]

59 with some light drizzle now.

[Damage In Tolland]

59 with some light drizzle now.

Drought over for you

[powderfreak]

59 with some light drizzle now.

Did BOS have under 1" of rain in September of 1995?

[CoastalWx]

Did BOS have under 1" of rain in September of 1995?

Pretty sure they did lol. One of the real Nov-Apr winters.

[powderfreak]

Pretty sure they did lol. One of the real Nov-Apr winters.

 

Haha, I thought I saw that online...as one of the few times BOS had under 1" of rainfall in September being before the 95-96 winter.

[Ginx snewx]

Haha, I thought I saw that online...as one of the few times BOS had under 1" of rainfall in September being before the 95-96 winter.

that was August

[powderfreak]

that was August

 

I just went back and found the article I was reading earlier on Boston.com... it said September but maybe someone can clarify that with the stats.  I'm not sure why the author would be leaning away from a blockbuster winter, lol, especially considering what is discussed on here.

 

http://www.boston.com/mt/lifestyle/house/blog/growing-wisdom/2014/09/many_of_you_have_heard.html?p1=Topofpage%3ACarousel_sub_headline

 

Boston Snowfall

As you know this has been one of the driest Septembers on record. As an interesting exercise, I decided to look at other dry Septembers and what the following winter brought to Boston in terms of snowfall. Since snow is highly variable, this method isn’t a perfect predictor for your town because some of the years Boston didn’t get much snow, places like Worcester got a lot more.

For example, in the winter of 1957/58 Boston had about 45 inches while Worcester had just under 100 inches of snow. That winter took place with a strong El Nino which likely brought big storms, but also warm air off the ocean. This year El Nino isn’t expected to be so strong.

Dry is somewhat arbitrary so,for this exercise I considered exceptionally dry to be under 1 inch of rain. Here's what I found. There are only 12 such Septembers since the late 1800s and 10 have them were followed by normal or below normal snowfall. Two of the winters did have above normal snowfall, and one had record snowfall. (1995-1996), but both of those occurred in La Nina years of which this isn't going to be.

I love looking at current fall weather to help predict what the upcoming winter will be like. There are some correlations between the weather in October and November and what the following three months brings. To that end, the following map shows the National Weather Service predicting our overall warm pattern to continue the rest of the fall.

This is why I like to wait until the fall is complete before really committing to a winter forecast. That said, based on the upcoming El Nino and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation being in a cold mode, many have predicted a cold and snowy winter in the east since early spring.

Bottom line, I'm leaning away from a blockbuster snowy winter, but let's see how the next 4 weeks plays out and then revisit the winter season. I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts on the weather or any of the blogs on Twitter @growingwisdom

[powderfreak]

You were right Ginxy... BOS with 0.82" in August 1995, and 3.60 in September.

 

Man it got wet that fall... 6.42" in October and 5.13" in November 1995.

 

I think that's a good signal for a snowy winter, a nice active wet pattern.

[CoastalWx]

That's what I meant PF. A normal Sept. But like I said, there is a narrow area that is very dry. I don't see how you can correlate that to winter. That's like saying a wet march means a cold summer or vice-versa.

[Modfan]

I move south and dry conditions head north, while down here in SFL it has been a wet very wet month; as of Saturday Daytona was approaching 18" which would be a record for a monthly total without a tropical system involved; they are getting more today and tomorrow so they may hit 20" for the month. Talk about a Sultan signal!

[powderfreak]

That's what I meant PF. A normal Sept. But like I said, there is a narrow area that is very dry. I don't see how you can correlate that to winter. That's like saying a wet march means a cold summer or vice-versa.

 

The only thing I could think of is correlating precipitation in the fall to snowfall in the winter...just based on a developing wet pattern could continue through the winter.  Like a wet March/April may lead to a wet summer?  I can't figure out how you'd ever correlate precipitation to future temperatures.  But I could see some sort of precipitation now equals precipitation later type of weak correlation.  Like a really dry Oct/Nov may lead to a dry winter? I can't see how like August or September precip would play into it, because there's too much time for things to change. 

 

Its basically looking at it from a persistence forecasting standpoint. 

[CoastalWx]

The thing is, the atmosphere behaved more Nina like in August into Sept.

[CoastalWx]

The only thing I could think of is correlating precipitation in the fall to snowfall in the winter...just based on a developing wet pattern could continue through the winter. Like a wet March/April may lead to a wet summer? I can't figure out how you'd ever correlate precipitation to future temperatures. But I could see some sort of precipitation now equals precipitation later type of weak correlation.

Its basically looking at it from a persistence forecasting standpoint.

I would have to see a larger sample size. I just call complete BS on that. What about fluky leftover tropicals? What about the 1" cape cod got the other day? So if Boston was located on cape cod or NE MA, this would not even be a discussion. It is true the area as a whole has been in a dry pattern, but call me skeptical on that correlation. It's not impossible for sure, but I have a few doubts.

[powderfreak]

I would have to see a larger sample size. I just call complete BS on that. What about fluky leftover tropicals? What about the 1" cape cod got the other day? So if Boston was located on cape cod or NE MA, this would not even be a discussion. It is true the area as a whole has been in a dry pattern, but call me skeptical on that correlation. It's not impossible for sure, but I have a few doubts.

Well I wasn't speaking about this year or BOS or anything.

Was just musing if there is or would be any precipitation correlation in the fall to the winter...especially late fall. It doesn't matter to me if it's BTV, BOS, ORH...was just wondering what folks thought if there was anything to a Oct/Nov/Dec correlation with precip to snowfall that winter. I just got thinking about it after seeing how wet the fall of 1995 was in BOS (almost 12" in Oct/Nov), and that continued well into winter with like 7" in January 1996. And that was a record snowy winter...was there foreshadowing based on the switch from very dry to very wet in the fall.

Ie if a really dry pattern (or really wet pattern) developed late fall, would it register a correlation with snowfall that winter.

[CoastalWx]

October And the NAO had somewhat of an inverse correlation, but recently it hasn't worked as well.

November is the big dog. If that is a cold month, then chances are the winter will be as well.

December Nino's sometimes aren't pretty on the coast, but if the patten is stormy, it's usually a matter of when, not if the coast gets nailed.

[CoastalWx]

Without hopping onto my laptop, I would think a stormy October would bode better than not for snowfall.

[powderfreak]

Without hopping onto my laptop, I would think a stormy October would bode better than not for snowfall.

Yeah that's what I would think. Like dry Oct and Nov may have winters with lower snow, while wet Oct/Nov leads to big winter snows.

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah that's what I would think. Like dry Oct and Nov may have winters with lower snow, while wet Oct/Nov leads to big winter snows.

Top 5 wettest and dryest Oct Nov Boston and snow, wet is good

1 2005-11-30 13.12. 39.9

2 1996-11-30 12.84 51.9

3 1983-11-30 12.63 43

4 1955-11-30 12.62 60.9

5 1953-11-30 12.57 23.6

1 1946-11-30 1.32 19.4

2 2001-11-30 1.71 15.1

3 2013-11-30 3.33 58.9

- 1952-11-30 3.33 29.8

5 2012-11-30 3.63 63.4

[Ginx snewx]

Only 2 weak ninos in that list most interestingly enough both wet and dry were La Nada or weak Nina

[HIPPYVALLEY]

64/60.  Not bad for a late Sept. evening.  

[Ginx snewx]

Might want to check on the correlation between horrible Red Sox and Pats teams and following winters in Boston

[powderfreak]

Might want to check on the correlation between horrible Red Sox and Pats teams and following winters in Boston

 

I think its a lag correlation...winter 2015-2016 will be great.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Might want to check on the correlation between horrible Red Sox and Pats teams and following winters in Boston

Wonder if its similar for the Yankees

[Ginx snewx]

Wonder if its similar for the Yankees

let me check the last time they lost 90 games, 1991

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

let me check the last time they lost 90 games, 1991

Mehhh. Spent hundreds of millions this year and did not make the postseason.