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September Discusssion--winter bound or bust


moneypitmike

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Hilltop torch this morn.. 52 here and ORH

 

39° here.  On days like this when I have to go over the mountain my windows fog up as I go over 900'.  It never fails.  The car doesn't have time to warm up and the extra water vapor in the air just condenses on the windshield.

 

Tomorrow or Saturday morning should be <38°.  That will actually be later than my 30 year average of 9/15.

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ORH will likely be below normal by Saturday morning for the month. Funny considering how warm we were. Rest of us still solidly above.

At MVL we are -0.8 now and dropping fast for the month. MPV is -2.4 and BTV is +0.2.

MVL started the month +7.9 for the first week, and now this past week has averaged -9.7!

What a freakin turn around in pattern. After the next few days we'll be even deeper below normal.

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Feels like fall... high temperature of 52F at 8am, now continuing to hold steady at 50F.  Yet another September afternoon sitting in the 48-52F range.  Averaging near -10 departures the last week.

 

Its finally that time of year when CAA can over-come the diurnal trends.... BTV with a 58F midnight high, now sitting at 50F at midday.

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Murdochville, Quebec, NE of Caribou, Maine on the Gaspe Peninsula this morning...

 

 

The Gaspe is an awesome place.  The Chic-Chocs have a tree line just above 3,000' so it's easily accessible.  They easily retain deep snow into May.  I think it gets over looked by many looking for deep snows and it's not that far away.

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The Gaspe is an awesome place.  The Chic-Chocs have a tree line just above 3,000' so it's easily accessible.  They easily retain deep snow into May.  I think it gets over looked by many looking for deep snows and it's not that far away.

 

Yeah, unfortunately its still a pretty significant drive...but yes, closer in a more broad sense.  Treeline is about 1,000ft lower up there...gotta imagine the nor'easters are absolutely insane.  Read an article about skiing up there and the author got stuck in like a legit 5-foot storm with hurricane force winds.  That would be worth chasing to stay in some motel or lodge up there at like 2,000ft for a 3-day nor'easter.

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Classic mini torch and DSD ahead of front. That will change tonight and tomorrow.

 

Yeah its coming for you guys.  Should see that meso-map look much different tomorrow.  Good angle of delivery too so its not moderating over the Great Lakes/Upper Plains/Ohio Valley before coming in here...just straight down from Quebec.

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I saw the mesos keep BOS near 55. That's impressive.

 

 

Any other day around this time, BOS would have a legit shot at record low max. But tomorrow's is by far the most difficult:

 

 

9/18: 58F (1938)

9/19: 49F (1875)

9/20: 58F (1960)

9/21: 55F (1977)

 

They'd have a legit shot at upper 50s, but no chance at 49F, lol.

 

 

ORH needs 54F tomorrow to tie their record low max. I'd probably bet more like 56-57 right now though, but we'll see.

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39° here.  On days like this when I have to go over the mountain my windows fog up as I go over 900'.  It never fails.  The car doesn't have time to warm up and the extra water vapor in the air just condenses on the windshield.

 

Tomorrow or Saturday morning should be <38°.  That will actually be later than my 30 year average of 9/15.

You might get a light frost Sat Am..while I'm 44

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Hey we're not talking about a tropical system here, just a good ole fashioned coastal storm. A handful of 00z GEFS members had a similar look.

 

f156.gif

 Dude give it up. There's no rain coming thru early Oct

Benjamin Sipprell ‏@SipprellWx  15m
If long-term ensemble solutions are correct, #SNE may be looking at a long period of little to no rain. #drought
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 Dude give it up. There's no rain coming thru early Oct

Benjamin Sipprell ‏@SipprellWx  15m
If long-term ensemble solutions are correct, #SNE may be looking at a long period of little to no rain. #drought

 

Do you search twitter looking for random tweets that support your biases?

 

The models are loaded with precip just offshore. It wouldn't take that much to flip things around.

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Any other day around this time, BOS would have a legit shot at record low max. But tomorrow's is by far the most difficult:

 

 

9/18: 58F (1938)

9/19: 49F (1875)

9/20: 58F (1960)

9/21: 55F (1977)

 

They'd have a legit shot at upper 50s, but no chance at 49F, lol.

 

 

ORH needs 54F tomorrow to tie their record low max. I'd probably bet more like 56-57 right now though, but we'll see.

 

Dam 49. Now that's some cold.  

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