Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Do you search twitter looking for random tweets that support your biases? The models are loaded with precip just offshore. It wouldn't take that much to flip things around. I don't care what the models are showing over the Gulf Stream..Anyone that knows anything about the wx..can clearly see the nasty dry/drought pattern is going to continue well into October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 which typhoon recurved? The one you were talking about yesterday would change the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 18, 2014 Author Share Posted September 18, 2014 Murdochville, Quebec, NE of Caribou, Maine on the Gaspe Peninsula this morning... She's a beaut, Clark! One heck of a temperature gradient this afternoon... looking at the 1pm temps, ranging from upper 40s in northern VT/NH to mid-70s in SE MA. mesomap2.jpg mesomap.jpg Nice spread. Warm at the Pit-- 65.6/53. BTW--where's the link to the NNE temps? I can only find the SNE ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 The one you were talking about yesterday would change the modelswhich recurves in 7 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 which recurves in 7 daysSo now we can accurately forecast typhoons over a week out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 BTW--where's the link to the NNE temps? I can only find the SNE ones. I think this is what you are looking for: http://www.pdfamily.com/weather/mesomap2.htm You can also use this and move the map around and see more detailed info: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/gmap.php?zoom=8&extents=42.38287,-74.409912,45.544808,-70.125244&density=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 So now we can accurately forecast typhoons over a week out? Just as good as looking at a 384 hr GFS map and saying it's going to be dry the next two weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Just as good as looking at a 384 hr GFS map and saying it's going to be dry the next two weeks Wanna wager?i will take under .50 at all 4 SNE climo sites thru Oct.1. Loser buys the winner a pair of Yankees tix for a game next season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 So now we can accurately forecast typhoons over a week out?pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Wanna wager?i will take under .50 at all 4 SNE climo sites thru Oct.1. Loser buys the winner a pair of Yankees tix for a game next season You're on. Combined value of the tickets not to exceed $200. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 All I need is a day 6 GGEM run to verify, how hard can that be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 18, 2014 Author Share Posted September 18, 2014 I think this is what you are looking for: http://www.pdfamily.com/weather/mesomap2.htm You can also use this and move the map around and see more detailed info: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/gmap.php?zoom=8&extents=42.38287,-74.409912,45.544808,-70.125244&density=1 Thanks--the mesomap2 was the one I couldn't find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 I haven't been doing much model watching in the past week or so but what a dry pattern coming. I see no torch either. Days near normal and some cold nights. Classic fall, not too much humidity except for that potential offshore coastal storm that brings in some moisture. Looks like sne is caught in between the front and the storm system and doesn't see much QPF at all. Regardless, a nice comfortable fall pattern developing if you ignore lack of rain. Does N ORH, RT 2, Berks, NE MA potentially frost early this year? Hints of that on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Yeah, unfortunately its still a pretty significant drive...but yes, closer in a more broad sense. Treeline is about 1,000ft lower up there...gotta imagine the nor'easters are absolutely insane. Read an article about skiing up there and the author got stuck in like a legit 5-foot storm with hurricane force winds. That would be worth chasing to stay in some motel or lodge up there at like 2,000ft for a 3-day nor'easter. I've been up there in the summer, beautiful place! But TABER was up there skiing in the winter awhile back, has some good stories lol. The time of year where SNE>NNE For sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 I haven't been doing much model watching in the past week or so but what a dry pattern coming. I see no torch either. Days near normal and some cold nights. Classic fall, not too much humidity except for that potential offshore coastal storm that brings in some moisture. Looks like sne is caught in between the front and the storm system and doesn't see much QPF at all. Regardless, a nice comfortable fall pattern developing if you ignore lack of rain. Does N ORH, RT 2, Berks, NE MA potentially frost early this year? Hints of that on the models. It wouldn't be that early if it happens tomorrow night...in fact there's probably already been some light frost in the most shltered areas earlier this week. First freeze (32F) in that region tends to be around mid-Sept. First hard freeze (28F) is more like early Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Wanna wager?i will take under .50 at all 4 SNE climo sites thru Oct.1. Loser buys the winner a pair of Yankees tix for a game next season So one station needs .5" or higher for him to win? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 So one station needs .5" or higher for him to win? Yes..I'm almost tempted to go under .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 I haven't been doing much model watching in the past week or so but what a dry pattern coming. I see no torch either. Days near normal and some cold nights. Classic fall, not too much humidity except for that potential offshore coastal storm that brings in some moisture. Looks like sne is caught in between the front and the storm system and doesn't see much QPF at all. Regardless, a nice comfortable fall pattern developing if you ignore lack of rain. Does N ORH, RT 2, Berks, NE MA potentially frost early this year? Hints of that on the models. Doesn't always occur, but an "equinoctal pause" with calm dry wx seems common, unless it's just my recollection. Only 16 years records (and looks like #17 will follow), but except for when Floyd went thru in 1999, I've not recorded a single 1"+ precip event during the period 9/12-26. Only 3 of my 15 Sept thunderstorms came then (one on 9/26), with 8 for Sept 1-11 and 4 more Sept 27-30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 So one station needs .5" or higher for him to win? If I have to drive up to the site and dump a bucket of water on the gauge I will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 I've been up there in the summer, beautiful place! But TABER was up there skiing in the winter awhile back, has some good stories lol. I'll have to talk to him about that haha. Hopefully we get some early season snow to go for a pre-season ski with LAHIFF and TABER. Had fun last November after that upslope event. It's awesome that your office is filled with so many outdoors loving mets. I know you're out there hiking all the time it seems. Really improves the forecasts for the outskirt areas and mountains. When I first moved to BTV 10 years ago there certainly wasn't anywhere near the focus on higher terrain, lakes, etc that there is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 I agree it really wouldn't take much to get some meaningful precipitation in here. At this stage I wouldn't rule out a miss Sunday into Monday...all we need is the timing of the front/trough to slow down just a little bit...or the coastal to speed up and that opens up the door for some rains at least into southeastern SNE. It's easy to blow off such a scenario given how things have been but I'd give it another 24-36 hours before completely dismissing it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 congrats Eric Fisher @ericfisher 58s Over the last 60 days, the driest town in the entire Northeastern quadrant of the U.S. looks to be Mansfield, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 congrats Eric Fisher @ericfisher 58s Over the last 60 days, the driest town in the entire Northeastern quadrant of the U.S. looks to be Mansfield, MA. Lol 10 mins from my house. Times are tough.Outside of southeast ma, not as bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 One August rainfall is the only difference. If you went back 90 days .. It would look different with SE mass and ENE getting crushed on July 4th and central areas not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 I love dry early autumns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 One August rainfall is the only difference. If you went back 90 days .. It would look different with SE mass and ENE getting crushed on July 4th and central areas notlol at this my-drought-is-bigger-than-yours game that you guys are playing lately.And if you went back 120 or 150 days it would look even more different! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 lol at this my-drought-is-bigger-than-yours game that you guys are playing lately. And if you went back 120 or 150 days it would look even more different! Truly glad we don't live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Truly glad we don't live there. Likewise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 lol at this my-drought-is-bigger-than-yours game that you guys are playing lately. And if you went back 120 or 150 days it would look even more different! Might speak for other deficiencies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Truly glad we don't live there.especially today, 75/42 is pure heaven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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