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Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

That's sick. Are we talking temps plummeting fast enough for a flash freeze around here (Eastern Mass.). That would be kinda fun. Actually, an ice storm would be a nice consolation for all of us I think :weenie:

 

Well that is all dependent on how much moisture is left over. It could easily be one..but I think a lot of people might not exactly understand what it is....it's dependent on storm track. If it tracks over SNE instead of say near the canal..there might not be much moisture left over for a rain to snow and temps in the 20s deal all occurring in minutes.  That's a real flash freeze.

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted

What is the shortest length of time a winter storm watch has been in effect?? We may have a run for our money here.

The good news is that with the cold on the back side, the mud will freeze so hopefully we can wind up with a less muddy outcome despite losing all that snow.

Melting commencing here.

33.0/19

I dunno', I envision a reduced water logged snowpack freezing solid. Ugly.

Can't see models right now are we talking no snow out here or snow then rain w/ a liitle frozen at the end?

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HimoorWx

HimoorWx

Posted
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Yep. We went from rain and 57 or something like that to snow, wind and temps in the teens by 2pm.   Got 3 or 4 inches out of it, but it was mayhem simply b/c of the severe cold, wind and snow freezing everything in 30 minutes

 

Remember it well, and I think it was 2005.  Just made it home ahead of the freeze and within an hour it was nearly whiteout conditions with howling winds.  The road to get up to the condo complex we were in at the time was impossible to navigate.  Wasn't that the storm that ended up plowing into Bar Harbor with some ridiculously low pressure?

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

That's sick. Are we talking temps plummeting fast enough for a flash freeze around here (Eastern Mass.). That would be kinda fun. Actually, an ice storm would be a nice consolation for all of us I think :weenie:

 

 

Flash freeze is dependent on the low level moisture still remaining. Most guidance has it sufficient...its still precipitating when the temps crash. That is usually what you look for in a flash freeze.

 

But we need to monitor the trend of the sfc track and ULL too...if everything goes too far west, then we'll dry out before the temps really crash.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted

That is the main reason many of us do as well as some of you in SNE, We like the recreation aspects of snow, I have a lot of friends from Mass that come up here to ride and their interest is up here as well, This is a New England thread and that includes the whole region

I would think most of the weather enthusiasts in here like to see the entire region do well.

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
Posted

90 minutes until we can issue final forecasts on this. Hopeful for PV lobe, expecting a knee to the mid section

 

 

You are already TKOd from this one.

...More like a quick combination knock out shot similar to the one in the beginning of the first round here (about 3:00 mins into video)

http://www.ufc.com/media/UFC-171-Free-Fight-Hendricks-Kampmann-UFC-154

 

I think most of us in the south did NOT get too invested in this system to begin with. Those who did last week were foolish.  I'm happy that there's a potential NNE system on the mark for midweek.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Hey ... who put those sour grapes in the fruit bowl overnight and this morning... 

 

I was just looking at the NAM's FRH grid for Boston and noting how pleasant tomorrow will be.  850mb is right around 0C, and with a light, WNW katabatic flow of wind in a rotted polar air mass, along with 70% clear sky ...in March...  I could see most MOS guidance easily busting a clean 5F too cool, and they are in the upper 40s as it is. That was the case last Saturday and places like FIT-BED-BOS were in the mid 50s.   Under the radar serving for a gem day for those of us that care about actually seeing winter end and warm climes set in. 

 

Then, the all important boundary arrives.  I looks to stall neary NYC's latitude in most guidance (blended), but that provides too shallow of CAA to offer enough BL resistance, such that the OV ejected low could ride further S.  Since this is an open, but potent wave, icing could enter the concerns near the interface where 0C collocates beneath the N edge of the 850mb punch of warmth. But ...it's March, and 31.9F has a way of not icing if this happens in the day-time. 

 

It's "possible" that the low level cold air is a tick or two more aggresive than even the higher res models.  Thinking is that the snow pack helps some of that momentum. ... But some of these types of off-sets are a bit overrated, too. 

 

Otherwise, obviously this appears to be a just NW of  ALB to the Maine Coast type of system, (for now) concerny wintry impact. Rain being taking up the lion's share S.  Although, I am seeing in most guidance a whopper crash of heights and 850mb temps AS the mid level centers are passing over Massachusetts -- could and probably does signal some kind of flash transition.  But the QPF peeters out -- interesting race there.   By and large ... the current southern edge of the WSW appears to be coincident with the 850mb 0C and is understandable. We'll just have to now-cast the boundary and momentum behind it after tomorrows beaut is done.

 

Btw, there's definitely a quick-responder stream flood issue with this in my mind.  The ground is frozen, and the pack in place, albeit shrunk, ...still is of the higher water content variety, and should a pulse of 1.5" rain smack in 6 hours that could be a problem for some backyards. 

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MarkO

MarkO

Posted
Posted

Just got back from a nice ski weekend at the cabin. Models look like a crushing blow up there with a solid foot plus!!! Sweet! Kinda sucks it's looking wet here in Lowell, but this will be epic for spring skiing. With the cold to ensue, some mountains could be closing with near all terrain still skiable. WV is closing April 6th!

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ono

ono

Posted
Posted

Well there's a ski thread to discuss ski area snows. No one lives at Sunday River here

 

Given the level of "it will/should move 50-100 miles south" every other storm or "what's wrong with that model?" coming from some parties around here, posts about Sunday River belong here just as much as do posts about wishful thinking, and dissonant empirical models with regard to personal desire.

 

that said, the GFS is creeping on us up here in NNE.  We've got that Boston, NH/MA low track that looks to slam NW NNE- just wish it wasn't always a nail-biter.  At this rate, ping to the N VT could be in the cards.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Another aspect about this system (as modeled) though perhaps tedious is the observation that it reaches maximum intensity right astride the MA/NH coast, and actually fills as it lifts into the Maritimes of eastern Canada.  ...I guess other systems have maxed near New England in the past, but not usually with an open wave.  huh

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

Yeah I was thinking March 2005 or 2006 I wonder if someone can look that up. I was living in New Jersey at the time and it was a beast of a flash freeze.

 

Sounds like 3/8/2005.  Snow began during the middle of the day and then temps dove into the teens as S became S+.  IIRC, that super-low bar (lower 950s?) came from a single buoy and wasn't supported by nearby landfall obs,

 

Hope this doesn't keep bumping NW.  Would hate to exchange cirrus-sniffing for deluge-bailing.

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Randy4Confluence

Randy4Confluence

Posted
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If the actual sfc low tracks west of us, then a flash freeze becomes more difficult...but if it tracks almost over us or just south of us, then its a strong possibility because the sfc low has been outrunning the upper level support on most guidance....therefore we still have full saturation when temps crash into the 20s and upper teens with light snow falling.

 

Those are conditions you want present for a flass freeze...otherwise the moisture will just evaporate with drying out WNW or NW winds.

Do you remember the date of that storm in March of '03 when something similar happened to the point of causing a like a 50 car pileup on I-95 in Attleboro because of the temps crashing ridiculously during the day? Can't remember but I think it was early March. I'll take something like that in an instant!

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Do you remember the date of that storm in March of '03 when something similar happened to the point of causing a like a 50 car pileup on I-95 in Attleboro because of the temps crashing ridiculously during the day? Can't remember but I think it was early March. I'll take something like that in an instant!

 

 

You are prob thinking of 3/8/05....I doubt this one would be that extreme with 4-8" of snow...but it only takes a bit of snow on a flash freeze to create a lot of problems. We'll see where the sfc/upper features track...if sfc low stays just SE of us, then a flash freeze is more likely.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

You are prob thinking of 3/8/05....I doubt this one would be that extreme with 4-8" of snow...but it only takes a bit of snow on a flash freeze to create a lot of problems. We'll see where the sfc/upper features track...if sfc low stays just SE of us, then a flash freeze is more likely.

Did we get another one around 2007? Not as big a deal, but still a quick flashover

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I was just noticing something about that 00z Euro solution ... it actually bombs the low right along the Del Marva/S NJ region for its sfc depiction... 

 

Winter weather enthusiasts are getting boned  by this... That's typically a great position for all of SNE NW of the CCC; but nuances in the cold air timing/momentum is monstrous in dictating the impacts/type of system that affects the region. 

 

I still think though that this could surprise.  

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Randy4Confluence

Randy4Confluence

Posted
Posted

It takes the low west of ORH by a bit. It's  a torching , sou easter. it's the farthest NW right now thankfully

Yep, you and I both know there will be a south trend to get us all excited at the end  at least on the Goofus. There's always is at least on those on the GFS. Then, the NAM will come in 12 hours before the event and bring it all north by 50 miles lol.... seen this movie too many times. It's all good.

 

Our property values go up with these kind of events! (yours and Mine :pimp: ).

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted

Just noticed in the past hour BOX actually slightly expanded the WSW from this morning.  Instead of just Franklin Co it now covers western Hampshire and Hampden Co's.  Interesting given the GFS trending even further N.  Regardless of what Euro says I doubt they change anything until the morning.  No real harm in keeping watches up.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Just noticed in the past hour BOX actually slightly expanded the WSW from this morning.  Instead of just Franklin Co it now covers western Hampshire and Hampden Co's.  Interesting given the GFS trending even further N.  Regardless of what Euro says I doubt they change anything until the morning.  No real harm in keeping watches up.

 

Well it does look like those spots would start as snow then go to mix before rain...then back to snow.  There still could be advisory level impacts at the least, and so there's no reason to drop a Watch only to issue an Advisory in a day or so.  Might as well keep the Watch around until the Advisory... I'd bet just the chance of mixed precip would prompt at least an Advisory.

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