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Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
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I Haven't experienced a good flash freeze in a long time, at least seven years I think.

Wouldn't a slower GFS solution allow the pv lobe to come in on the backside quicker now?

Doubt we see that.   GFS and NAM don't have all that much QPF especially southern CT-winds will dry it out before there's any freeze  IMO.   (2 things modeled that never work out....1.  Back end snows and 2. Flash freezes)

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

winter storm watch!!  :lmao: congrats to some

 

What is the shortest length of time a winter storm watch has been in effect??  We may have a run for our money here.

 

The good news is that with the cold on the back side, the mud will freeze so hopefully we can wind up with a less muddy outcome despite losing all that snow.

 

Melting commencing here.

 

33.0/19

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
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Doubt we see that. GFS and NAM don't have all that much QPF especially southern CT-winds will dry it out before there's any freeze IMO. (2 things modeled that never work out....1. Back end snows and 2. Flash freezes)

Yeah I agree... I never trust backend snows esp.

Will says there's a pretty decent chance at a flash freeze though so we'll see.

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SouthCoastMA

SouthCoastMA

Posted
Posted

Doubt we see that. GFS and NAM don't have all that much QPF especially southern CT-winds will dry it out before there's any freeze IMO. (2 things modeled that never work out....1. Back end snows and 2. Flash freezes)

Regarding 1, I feel like they never really pan out for progressive systems, even when they are modeled to do so. We'd need a slow moving storm bombing out, or stalled.

I believe there was a flash freeze in 1994 that was epic..but I really haven't noticed any good ones in the past couple decades..at least IMBY

Regarding this system, I believe the EURO has led the way showing an amped up solution yesterday..and everything has since caved. Not surprised, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it continue the amping theme at 12z due to the less robust high and increasingly less impactful influence of the PV

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Yeah I agree... I never trust backend snows esp.

Will says there's a pretty decent chance at a flash freeze though so we'll see.

 

If the actual sfc low tracks west of us, then a flash freeze becomes more difficult...but if it tracks almost over us or just south of us, then its a strong possibility because the sfc low has been outrunning the upper level support on most guidance....therefore we still have full saturation when temps crash into the 20s and upper teens with light snow falling.

 

Those are conditions you want present for a flass freeze...otherwise the moisture will just evaporate with drying out WNW or NW winds.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

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Regarding 1, I feel like they never really pan out for progressive systems, even when they are modeled to do so. We'd need a slow moving storm bombing out, or stalled.

I believe there was a flash freeze in 1994 that was epic..but I really haven't noticed any good ones in the past couple decades..at least IMBY

Regarding this system, I believe the EURO has led the way showing an amped up solution yesterday..and everything has since caved. Not surprised, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it continue the amping theme at 12z due to the less robust high and increasingly less impactful influence of the PV

there was a great flash freeze in March 06 I think, but in order to get that, you need an inch or two of snow on the backend.   If most of us get rain and then the modeled inch or two of snow doesnt materialize and the rain simply ends, there's not much to freeze except maybe on tertiary roads and some walkways...

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Right . It's not a thread to be discussing how the skiing will be at Sunday River

 

I think you are missing the point. Many people in NNE are skiers, snow mobilers etc so why do you think they want snow and are following this one? Just because Will or anyone else has interest in this resulting in winter activities, doesn't mean they are relegated to the ski thread.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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I think you are missing the point. Many people in NNE are skiers, snow mobilers etc so why do you think they want snow and are following this one? Just because Will or anyone else has interest in this resulting in winter activities, doesn't mean they are relegated to the ski thread.

 

I simply explained why I was still following this threat very intently...not discussing the ski conditions up there anyway.

 

Kevin is just throwing a tantrum because he's getting mostly rain now and others still seem interested in tracking this. If anyone does not want to track this storm, there's a bunch of other threads in our subforum that are discussing other weather.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
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there was a great flash freeze in March 06 I think, but in order to get that, you need an inch or two of snow on the backend. If most of us get rain and then the modeled inch or two of snow doesnt materialize and the rain simply ends, there's not much to freeze except maybe on tertiary roads and some walkways...

Yeah I was thinking March 2005 or 2006 I wonder if someone can look that up. I was living in New Jersey at the time and it was a beast of a flash freeze.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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I simply explained why I was still following this threat very intently...not discussing the ski conditions up there anyway.

 

Kevin is just throwing a tantrum because he's getting mostly rain now and others still seem interested in tracking this. If anyone does not want to track this storm, there's a bunch of other threads in our subforum that are discussing other weather.

 

Oh I know...I was just saying many people are following with the intention of continuing winter activities..etc even without saying it. Just because you comment on skiing doesn't mean you have to dump the post in the ski thread. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

I simply explained why I was still following this threat very intently...not discussing the ski conditions up there anyway.

Kevin is just throwing a tantrum because he's getting mostly rain now and others still seem interested in tracking this. If anyone does not want to track this storm, there's a bunch of other threads in our subforum that are discussing other weather.

Weve known for about 2 days now that this was going to primarily be a rain event for all of SNE. The only thing that has changed is now the low is tracking to our west so we don't see any change to snow.. So there's not a tantrum at all.. Just reality
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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Weve known for about 2 days now that this was going to primarily be a rain event for all of SNE. The only thing that has changed is now the low is tracking to our west so we don't see any change to snow.. So there's not a tantrum at all.. Just reality

 

 

I don't think its decided yet on the back end snow. Even the GFS gives 1-2 inches, though mainly pike-northward, the Ukie/GGEM give more than that as they track the sfc low just S along S coast or SE MA.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
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Yeah I was thinking March 2005 or 2006 I wonder if someone can look that up. I was living in New Jersey at the time and it was a beast of a flash freeze.

Yep. We went from rain and 57 or something like that to snow, wind and temps in the teens by 2pm.   Got 3 or 4 inches out of it, but it was mayhem simply b/c of the severe cold, wind and snow freezing everything in 30 minutes

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

I think you are missing the point. Many people in NNE are skiers, snow mobilers etc so why do you think they want snow and are following this one? Just because Will or anyone else has interest in this resulting in winter activities, doesn't mean they are relegated to the ski thread.

 

That is the main reason many of us do as well as some of you in SNE, We like the recreation aspects of snow, I have a lot of friends from Mass that come up here to ride and their interest is up here as well, This is a New England thread and that includes the whole region

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