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Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted

Prob a couple inches? Maybe a little more if lucky?

 

We need this to tick about 25-50 miles S with the cold push and it would do wonders.

You are up dude. Do you have a phone number for text so i dont have to stalk you in your winter storm threads lol

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Yeah, He is in a good spot for this as well as PF right now, But lucy has pulled the football out from under them so many times they walk on egg shells so i can see the conservative approach, Always can go up

 

Well that's always my forecasting method at the mountain... start low with snowfall and go up from there.  Skiers do not like being told they will get 8-16" only to have it end up 4-8".  But they love being told 4-8" and have that increase to 8-16".  I almost play it to the emotions of others, as that's pretty much what I do.  Play with their emotions until they can't resist the urge to go skiing, lol. 

 

Set expectations low, then exceed them.  Trust me when I say a person in my position will have more people like him in the local community than someone who is always going Hype on them only to see it fall apart.

 

I like 6-12" right now.  I think that's reasonable if we end up in that 0.5-1.0" QPF range.  I don't like banking on ratios in synoptic storms, so I'll never go much higher than 12:1 in these situations.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Well that's always my forecasting method at the mountain... start low with snowfall and go up from there.  Skiers do not like being told they will get 8-16" only to have it end up 4-8".  But they love being told 4-8" and have that increase to 8-16".  I almost play it to the emotions of others, as that's pretty much what I do.  Play with their emotions until they can't resist the urge to go skiing, lol. 

 

Set expectations low, then exceed them.  Trust me when I say a person in my position will have more people like him in the local community than someone who is always going Hype on them only to see it fall apart.

 

I like 6-12" right now.  I think that's reasonable if we end up in that 0.5-1.0" QPF range.  I don't like banking on ratios in synoptic storms, so I'll never go much higher than 12:1 in these situations.

 

I do they same thing on the 2 sites i do the weather for, Your a hero when you have to tell them they are getting more, But that's the main reason when i do my maps, I wait it out so i am not changing them constantly, Been burned in the past a few years back by making changes when if i left it alone i would have been fine............. :)

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Wow, new SREFS jumped way north with QPF. 

 

Mean low pressure goes from NYC to just east of BOS.

 

There are a disturbing amount of members that bring the low to like almost ALB before going east.  Uh oh.

 

f60.gif

 

lol, I saw the 09z and tossed it in the can earlier

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heavy_wx

heavy_wx

Posted
Posted

Box playing the data-sparse-Pacific card heavily:

 

As the parent system was still over the Pacific at the time of initial conditions...insufficient confidence to move to categorical probability of precipitation. Instead we have held at high-end likely...68 to 74 percent. The parent system moves ashore this morning...and so one would

expect confidence to increase during the day.

...

This analysis is of course based on the 00z models...and as noted earlier this could change as the parent system moves into the North American weather balloon domain. A headline may eventually be needed when forecast confidence increases. 

 

There's a lot of moisture with that cyclone south of the Aleutians. Models tend to under-represent the diabatic heating that results from these atmospheric rivers. In this case, there's also an anticyclonic wave breaking (challenging for models to handle as well) that occurs as the ridge amplifies and moves over the NW US. This feature may impact how the larger-scale trough downstream amplifies over the midwest.

 

That said, there isn't a huge amount of spread between solutions so confidence may still be close to normal for this lead time.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

you win the award for the first person to mention the SREFs this threat.

 

Do I get a golden weenie trophy or something?  :lol:

 

What is it with the ensembles recently...doesn't matter the model, they jump all over the freakin' place and they all seem to move together.  I've never remembered such inconsistencies in ensembles.  The GEFS follow the OP, so do the ECEM, and the NAM and SREFS are useless but seem to be in the same boat with these huge 6-hour swings.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

And i have a spot in the same barrel for it as well, But i have seen times where it does not follow

 

 

Both sets of guidance are almost completely worthless unfortunately in this time range. SREFs used to have a clue for a couple years...but not since whatever upgrade they did in 2012. Just horrific.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Both sets of guidance are almost completely worthless unfortunately in this time range. SREFs used to have a clue for a couple years...but not since whatever upgrade they did in 2012. Just horrific.

 

It is so true, And its to bad to have models that are not useful as tools to use

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Annnnd the NAM is warmer.  Ohh man Ugh.  

 

 

I'd wait for the real guidance to come out before getting overly worried...but this definitely does not have a good look for SNE unless that vort-lobe comes further SE.

 

 

Funny how it completely obliterated last storm....now, when we actually need it for just a modest push, its got less punch than Kevin's BMI after running a marathon. I guess that is the way it goes sometimes.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Annnnd the NAM is warmer.  Ohh man Ugh.  

How could it not be? it was dropping 12 plus over all of SNE just about. 

 

The end game is becoming clearer.

 

It's going to start as rain for just about everyone from CON south..It's just how soon can it flip to snow..25-50 miles south and it's very quick..Now it's just a 6 hour period on the backside and it's like 2-4 or 3-6..The way things are trending so far today..you'd have to think the Euro is going to be north

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

If the Euro goes north as we expect you may have to start worrying about mixing lol

 

Ha the thought did cross my mind as this is phasing a lot earlier.  You can see the southern energy gets ripped north much further west as that northern stream digs in, where as yesterday it was more at the coast or just off the coast.  Now that energy seems to absorbed in like eastern PA instead of off the NJ coast.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Ha the thought did cross my mind as this is phasing a lot earlier.  You can see the southern energy gets ripped north much further west as that northern stream digs in, where as yesterday it was more at the coast or just off the coast.  Now that energy seems to absorbed in like eastern PA instead of off the NJ coast.

SNE is 100% done

 

CNE is getting close to 75% done 

 

Hopefully ski resorts can hang on

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Tyngsboro Chowdacane

Tyngsboro Chowdacane

Posted
Posted

Interesting track, just a small wobble can greatly effect a few million people in SNE. On the Mass Border, expecting anywhere from around 2inches of backside only snow, to 12 inches on a mostly snow event.  Leaning more towards the 2 at this point.

At least Ski country gets a solid dump.

Sorry, meant on the NH border.

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