SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Any takers on this one? The GFS sucks on southern stream systems, it tends to want to squash them or make the weaker as a whole, but bottom line it does a miserable job with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Any takers on this one?The 18z changed, so your statement isn't as relevant now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Any takers on this one? It's not wrong yet :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Any takers on this one? Its ensembles are in disagreement and no other models support it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 You slide that entire precip field north 100 miles and it's laid out just like the nam from TN to OBX. I have to say I'm loving where MBY stands at right now. I'd say 4-12 is a good bet and really the pendellum is way closer to the 12 as opposed to the 4. Well we are in the same back yard so I hope you are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Thanks guys. I saw the 18z move, but was wondering why it had been on it's own. The fact that it kills the southern energy makes sense and is something I'll keep in mind. Preesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Ok if you need ,100 miles north frosty needs 150 mile shift!!! Lol all models keep the heaviest to my south. need a slight jog north. I hope everyone can get in on some good accumulation.[/quoteThat's the GFS. I'll take all the other models ( EE rule in effect) blend of the euro op ens with nam and there's my consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_TarHeel Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 This is my first post here but Chris Justus from WYFF posted a very detailed video about 15 minutes ago. Very good detail for upstaters and WNC folks. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORD_fHwMGCU&feature=youtu.be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cigrgd Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Here's the latest one. This is their reply to my comment on their Facebook page that this map seemed kind of conservative: This is actually a typical setup for all of our winter events, with low pressure tracking along the Gulf Coast. There is always a tight gradient in the precip distribution across the southeast during these events, and you would be very surprised as to how seemingly minor errors in the storm track can have major implications for the type and amount of precipitation. In terms of the precipitation amounts, the ensemble systems show that the operational models are on the extreme high end of the "envelope" of possible precip amounts. This is why we are not forecasting the higher totals at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Any members with Wxsouth just a heads up .He just posted A video .I'm not a member so I can't see . He's going with a Euro/NAM blend right now with West-East snow band thru TN and W NC/upstate SC, with a snow to sleet transition possibly near the NC/SC border up into E NC, IP further south into central SC down into ATL. That's just for the first push of precip and leaves a question mark for the second wave. I suggest everyone grab a subscription.. you won't be disappointed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 This is a quote from a member at TalkWeather. Very true. "No matter what model you look at a large portion of the SE is shown to meet WSW criteria. Not to mention a lot of folks who are 2-3 degrees away from a massive ICE storm. So with that logic, we shouldn't issue Tornado Watches if conditions look favorable either? That may be a stretch for an example but there is absolutely a need for a watch. Especially after the last fiasco". Atlanta especially needs to get on the ball, ironically on a Tuesday again?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 RGEM looks closest to the NAM as far as precip shield goes. Stronger HP. RGEM at 48: NAM at 48: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 This is a quote from a member at TalkWeather. Very true. "No matter what model you look at a large portion of the SE is shown to meet WSW criteria. Not to mention a lot of folks who are 2-3 degrees away from a massive ICE storm. So with that logic, we shouldn't issue Tornado Watches if conditions look favorable either? That may be a stretch for an example but there is absolutely a need for a watch. Especially after the last fiasco". Atlanta especially needs to get on the ball, ironically on a Tuesday again?? Somebody there doesn't know what they are talking about. Shocking. WSW wouldn't be issued until tomorrow afternoon, at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 This is a quote from a member at TalkWeather. Very true. "No matter what model you look at a large portion of the SE is shown to meet WSW criteria. Not to mention a lot of folks who are 2-3 degrees away from a massive ICE storm. So with that logic, we shouldn't issue Tornado Watches if conditions look favorable either? That may be a stretch for an example but there is absolutely a need for a watch. Especially after the last fiasco". Atlanta especially needs to get on the ball, ironically on a Tuesday again?? ATL is probably gonna end up okay in this event IMO because I think the initial rain for 12-18 hours prior to them eventually getting the CAD is going to saturate them around 39/38 or 40/39 make it a b**** to get the temps down in time for them to reach 32, I recall being told before if they do not get the CAD in there before the precip begins they generally will never get to 32...I think by the time they get to 32 the event will be over...nevertheless they probably will shut the city down because its going to be too close for the NWS to chance not putting the watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 He's going with a Euro/NAM blend right now with West-East snow band thru TN and W NC/upstate SC, with a snow to sleet transition possibly near the NC/SC border up into E NC, IP further south into central SC down into ATL. That's just for the first push of precip and leaves a question mark for the second wave. I suggest everyone grab a subscription.. you won't be disappointed! It's good to know I've been on the right track Somebody there doesn't know what they are talking about. Shocking. WSW wouldn't be issued until tomorrow afternoon, at the earliest. Agreed. Well...the 18z gfs again says all rain with a touch of zr for mby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxcwman Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Snowgoose are you speaking for all of NE Ga (lake Lanier northward) or the city of Atlanta? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Just an observation from the recent snowfall maps I've seen posted again and again... last two days. I've never seen snowfall storm totals ride NC Line from Georgia to Charlotte (Mecklenburg County). I know this won't happen, esp. in a Cad Event. Any historical storm maps that match that supposition. Just curious... fun to see that. jan 88. I dont think this is a true cad event. as a storm get started the high pressure is in the Midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Check out @WxSouth's Tweet: About the sleet line https://twitter.com/WxSouth/status/432290448405561344 About the snow potential. Check out @WxSouth's Tweet: https://twitter.com/WxSouth/status/432290669759959041 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 As everybody seems to agree, the GFS does not have a good handle on this system; but here is the 18z GFS snow accumulations at hour 90(good hit for NC central coastal plain): http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=02&model_dd=08&model_init_hh=18&fhour=90¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Here's the latest one. Brad's map is the Nam and says nws going with Nam, but It's the opposite of their ensemble total.https://m.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=618821088190351 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 KCAE... 12z Euro EPS members. ALL 51 members on board for Winter Weather here. Mean increased to over 6 inches and the OP is a foot. No, most of this is not snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 RGEM looks closest to the NAM as far as precip shield goes. Stronger HP. RGEM at 48: NAM at 48: I wonder if the RGEM has the NW bias going on after 48+ hours like the NAM? Hopefully SnowGoose can comment, I know they use it a lot up in the NE this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Good advice from Brad Panovich Brad Panovich WCNC I do not want people to get too focused on the snow amounts just yet as ice is still a big part of this storm and likely the bigger impact. 45 minutes ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 As everybody seems to agree, the GFS does not have a good handle on this system; but here is the 18z GFS snow accumulations at hour 90(good hit for NC central coastal plain):http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=02&model_dd=08&model_init_hh=18&fhour=90¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Even if the GFS is not as good as the other models, it is still showing a pretty good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 RAH just updated this on twitter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Check out @WxSouth's Tweet: About the sleet line https://twitter.com/WxSouth/status/432290448405561344 About the snow potential. Check out @WxSouth's Tweet: https://twitter.com/WxSouth/status/432290669759959041 RGEM did a great job in accurately depicting the ZR/IP/SN transition zones leading up to the late Jan event. For those with the App, correlation coefficient on radar scope shows it well in realtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 RAH just updated this on twitter.... Either the color on my computer is messed up or else it looks at though they are expecting the bulk to be more to the south. Is that what I'm seeing (Sorry, I'm on my 2nd mojito. Happy bday to me!). lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Either the color on my computer is messed up or else it looks at though they are expecting the bulk to be more to the south. Is that what I'm seeing (Sorry, I'm on my 2nd mojito. Happy bday to me!). lol Maybe they like the GFS all on it's own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Not only is the 18Z GFS wetter than the 12Z GFS for the crucial GA/SC corridor for potential wintry precip. but the 18Z GEFS is the wettest of the last four GEFS and wetter than the 18Z GFS. Whereas the 0Z GEFS had an average of only ~0.50" for 0Z 2/11 through 6Z 2/13 from the two waves, the 18Z GEFS has a whopping ~0.90" and is about twice as wet as the 18Z GFS' ~0.45". Why is the 18Z GEFS twice as wet as the 18Z GFS? 1. Quite a bit more qpf for 1st wave with ~0.60" 18Z GEFS vs. ~0.45" 18Z GFS 2. The 18Z GFS had virtually nothing for wave #2. However, the 18Z GEFS has ~0.30". So, there' a pretty good chance that the GFS will continue to be wetter in future runs and come closer to the model consensus.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 In case you all didn't see the obnoxious banner: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42782-radio-show-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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