Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Total QPF: This is all snow for most of NC/update SC... widespread 12"+ amts if verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 This run of the NAM is just incredible for WNC and the I-85 regions. Heck it's incredible for pretty much the entire state. This sums up me watching it. I will say this though, I've been fooled plenty of times by the NAM qpf totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 NAM is nothing short of historic for NC. Clobbers almost the entire state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 @69 .75 QPF across WNC with over an inch in SW NC all snow it looks like. Ya Burger and WOW big hit for SW WNC and points East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Just speaking for NC, that run gave 9"+ to the vast majority of the state, it appears. Wow. I got a foot. LOCK IT UP. NAM'ed. Happy Hour! (I don't think I buy such an extreme solution, but it's fun!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I still feel like the nam is out to lunch here. I know yall are super stoked in NC, and hell it may be right, but I just don't think it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Hot off the press from GSP: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 SWNC looks to have a max as show on the 18 NAM here. wow. Ya Burger and WOW big hit for SW WNC and points East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I still feel like the nam is out to lunch here. I know yall are super stoked in NC, and hell it may be right, but I just don't think it is. Don't feel bad, most know after 48 hours the NAM is just for show. Tomorrow at 12z we can take the NAM more serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Nice, GIF Burger! If the NAM could ever be right once in its pathetic life, this would be a good time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Don't feel bad, most know after 48 hours the NAM is just for show. Tomorrow at 12z we can take the NAM more serious? I would say lets start looking for real at it starting tomorrow or tomorrow eve. If the GFS suddenly go that way then ok, or if the euro derails then ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Rooting for ya'all from down here in Gator Country!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 This is a full 24 hr event for us.. Very impressive to say the least. The MT energy really revs things up with additional lift over the area. Hopefully the GFS decides to join the crowd soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 SWNC looks to have a max as show on the 18 NAM here. wow. Ya like others said time will tell about the QPF totals but wow indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Oy 1.25 inches of qpf in Nga. Wow. Crippling for nc and se. This is incredible. Correct me if wrong. But isn't this nams time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Ya like others said time will tell about the QPF totals but wow indeed. Granted this is looking at this run on the NAM, and as others pointed out, it is the NAM outside of 48 hrs. But love the run to run look so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Total QPF: This is all snow for most of NC/update SC... widespread 12"+ amts if verified Speachless with cold chills! A once in a 100 year storm for NC if it where to verify verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I still feel like the nam is out to lunch here. I know yall are super stoked in NC, and hell it may be right, but I just don't think it is. Agreed. First of all, although it did slow the first wave some and toward the other models, the 18Z NAM is still the most amped with wave #1 and not agreeing with the non-NAM 12Z models. It is so amped with wave #1 that it looks to have not much of anything with wave #2 (like the 12Z NAM did). The 12Z non-NAM model consensus doesn't agree. Secondly, the NAM often does not perform well past 48 hours and is even questionable earlier. I fully expect it to correct toward the Euro and company over the next couple of days. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I still feel like the nam is out to lunch here. I know yall are super stoked in NC, and hell it may be right, but I just don't think it is. I've def. been fooled many times by the NAM and it's QPF ramp ups. Either way if you split I'll take it any day of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Granted it's a terribly awesome run, it's still an outlier. The Montana s/w is an interesting feature to watch here, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 granted I want everyone in on the action, but it seems all models are wanting to tick south with the heavy precip. So I would like to see a small jog north! but that is some more of a run! To bad it's the NAM. The one we always trash when it don't show what we want.... lol Don't get me wrong I'll take it right where it's at! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The NAM is really good inside 48 hours but not so much earlier. It also tends to over amplify the precip totals but this would be a very good hit either way for most in NC/SC and an historic one IF it verified. As delta said, tomorrow will tell the tale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 At least it's consistent... 18z NAM snow totals COMPARED TO 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Agreed. First of all, although it did slow the first wave some and toward the other models, the 18Z NAM is still the most amped with wave #1 and not agreeing with the non-NAM 12Z models. It is so amped with wave #1 that it looks to have not much of anything with wave #2 (like the 12Z NAM did). The 12Z non-NAM model consensus doesn't agree. Secondly, the NAM often does not perform well past 48 hours and is even questionable earlier. I fully expect it to correct toward the Euro and company over the next couple of days. We'll see. Very well said. It just doesn't jive with anything. GFS and CMC Are a very northern stream heavy model and they don't have it that strong. I do fully expect the GFS to come close to something like the EURO at some point soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Hot off the press from GSP: Thanks for sharing. The fact that GSP is already making an early call with 3 inches for MBY tells me this is serious business. It's been a long time since I've seen that from them days in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farleydawg79 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 FFC sees nothing but rain as of now for NEGA (Athens). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Agreed. First of all, although it did slow the first wave some and toward the other models, the 18Z NAM is still the most amped with wave #1 and not agreeing with the non-NAM 12Z models. It is so amped with wave #1 that it looks to have not much of anything with wave #2 (like the 12Z NAM did). The 12Z non-NAM model consensus doesn't agree. Secondly, the NAM often does not perform well past 48 hours and is even questionable earlier. I fully expect it to correct toward the Euro and company over the next couple of days. We'll see. fwiw, wpc are going with a non nam/uk/euro/canadian solution in their latest snow/ice discussion for day 3. Even though the nam is pretty bad compared to other guidance, it still manages to get some sleet/freezing rain down to around gainesville to elberton sometime around hour 63 to 69..where a half inch liquid falls afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Thanks for sharing. The fact that GSP is already making an early call with 3 inches for MBY tells me this is serious business. It's been a long time since I've seen that from them days in advance. Very true Burger. This is interesting because they usually wait about 24 hours prior to the event even starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 NWS Wilmington: LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REINFORCETHE WEDGE AS SHALLOW COOL NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE OVERRUN BY SWFLOW ALOFT. THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE GULFCOAST WITH INCREASING NE FLOW AT THE SFC OVER THE CAROLINAS ONTUES REINFORCING THE COOL AIR AT THE SFC WHILE A VERY BROAD TROUGHALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A W-SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS ENHANCED LOW LEVELFLOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD PCP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ASISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY AND A POTENT SHORTWAVECROSSES THE AREA. LOOKING ON THE 295K SURFACE THE BEST LIFT WILLBE DISPLACED SOUTH AND EAST ON WED WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCEBEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEDGED IN FROMTHE NORTH AT THE SURFACE. THEREFORE EXPECT WED TO IMPROVE BEFOREANOTHER SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHAT TO EXPECT IN TERMS OF MIXED PCP FOR THECOASTAL CAROLINAS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW TREND OF COOLER AIROVER THE AREA ON TUES. BUFKIT SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR MIXEDPCP OVER NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES FROM MARLBORO TO NW PENDERCOUNTIES...BUT OUR FORECAST GRIDS KEEP MIXED WITH RAIN TUES AFTN ANDPOSSIBLE MIXED AGAIN WED NIGHT. FOR NOW WITH THE STATE OF FLUX ANDINCONSISTENCY IN MODEL GUIDANCE WILL KEEP SOME MIXED BUT WILL NOTTRY AND BE TOO PRECISE IN TERMS OF PTYPE...EXACT LOCATION AND AMOUNT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS THESOUTHEAST MID WEEK. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS IT AFFECTING LOCAL AREA WEDNIGHT INTO THURS WITH BEST LIFT AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAININGSOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION INITIALLY. IT WILL MAINLY ACT TOENHANCE THE WEDGE/COASTAL TROUGH AND PRODUCE ANOTHER PERIOD OFINCREASED ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA...BUT A NORTHERN STREAMSYSTEM WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH LATE THURS. THISDEEPENING LOW TO THE NORTH MAY FIRST LIFT THE COASTAL TROUGH/WARMFRONT NORTH THURSDAY BUT WILL THEN DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THECOASTAL CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT THURS. OVERALL EXPECT COOLAND UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT PCPFROM TUES THROUGH THURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 At least it's consistent... 18z NAM snow totals Kinda scary how similar they are, hopefully its a sign the NAM has it nailed but I think a general 4-8" is more likely but man would it not be nice to see a statewide thump like that, it would cripple the state though everyone is already out of salt and there are not enough snowplows to handle half that much just in the big cities much less a foot across the entire state lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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