TropicalAnalystwx13

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About TropicalAnalystwx13

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  1. If a model could spell trouble, this is what it would look like.
  2. A scale using words like Slight, Enhanced, and Moderate is not the best possible answer, all it takes is a glance of social media comments to see that. Patrick Marsh said in a Tweet the other day they were putting more emphasis on a 1-5 number scale instead of words, and that makes much more sense to me. Better to stick on analyzing tomorrow's event instead of Tor:con/SPC debate though.
  3. Sure, and don't get me wrong, I fully expect a high risk and a large-scale outbreak of severe weather and tornadoes. I do see a few limiting factors though, those being the potential impacts of morning convection on moisture recovery, as well as the structure of the low-level jet (which may also be tied to the morning MCS). EDIT: Sorry guys, I see the confusion now. I read the post as there being a 45% hatched tornado area across AL/GA tomorrow, not overall severe probabilities.
  4. 45% seems like a stretch and should be saved for the truly rare setups. Based on everything I'm looking at, a 30% hatched area across eastern Alabama and western Georgia seems in order though.
  5. Wednesday has all the makings of a significant severe weather outbreak across the Southeast, with an amplified/neutral-tilt 90kt upper-level trough and deepening surface low across the Ohio River Valley. Models are in good agreement dewpoints should progress into the upper 60s to near 70F as far north as central Alabama/Georgia by Wednesday afternoon. In addition, there will be a large area of steep lapse rates, a good elevated mixed layer, and unstable broad warm sector. Upper-end potential may be realized with this system if we can work two things, the first being the structure of the low-level jet (which looks quite weird on the NAM) and the second being the impact of the morning mesoscale convective system. Sometimes these MCSs ruin the day, other times it doesn't have a negating factor. Either way, I expect SPC to start with a Day 2 Moderate risk across central Alabama into southwestern Georgia.
  6. It's certainly possible. Nearly all models show an intensifying asymmetric warm core low into early next week. It already looks interesting on satellite. Would not be at all surprised if we saw Arlene out of this--it would be the first March named storm on record and the first March tropical cyclone since a Category 2 in 1908.
  7. NWS PAH looks to have added all the damage points for the Perryville tornado to DAT. The home below near the end of the track looks to have suffered the worst, as it was completely annihilated and all nearby trees were denuded. The summary notes that debris at that location was also reduced to fine pieces, with only the occasional 2x4. Obviously this home wasn't of perfect construction or it would have been an EF5 point, but it's pretty rare to hear of that kind of damage outside of EF5s.
  8. Yep. Some pretty nasty soundings coming out of that region on the NAM. Other models are far less enthusiastic for now though so nothing to hang our hats on.
  9. The 0z NAM portrays a very significant setup across central Oklahoma. Extreme CAPE, steep mid-level lapse rates, and quite a bit stronger shear than today. I see the slightest hint of some VBV on the soundings across the area, but it's insignificant and above 500mb so not sure it would matter. We'll see if the NAM has to catch up or is leading the pack. It was the first model to consistently indicate VBV for today.
  10. I'm not sure if it was mentioned here, but a NOAA HADS station at an elevation of 295ft in Cuixmala measured peak sustained winds of 185 mph gusting to 211 mph. This observation is unofficial until it's been quality controlled, but if it turns to valid then not only did Patricia fail to weaken below Category 5 strength before landfall, but it also was actually stronger than initially assessed.
  11. Actually, Camille was downgraded. It moved ashore at 150kt/175 mph.
  12. ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE PATRICIA TURNING TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... 10:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 Location: 16.2°N 105.1°W Moving: NNW at 10 mph Min pressure: 924 mb Max sustained: 160 mph HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1000 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 Patricia continues to explosively intensify, with the eye becoming warmer and better defined, along with a solid ring of very cold -90C cloud tops in the eyewall. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates support an initial wind speed of 140 kt, and an An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance unit aircraft is en route to check the intensity of the hurricane. Patricia is estimated to have intensified 85 kt in the past 24 hours, from a tropical storm to a category 5 hurricane during that time. This is a remarkable feat, with only Linda of 1997 intensifying at this rate in the satellite era. The hurricane could strengthen a little more before increasing southwesterly shear causes Patricia to weaken some by Friday afternoon, although it should remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall. The latest forecast is close to the previous NHC prediction, updated for the higher initial wind speed. After landfall, the hurricane should rapidly weaken over the high terrain and dissipate by 48 hours over the Sierra Madre mountains. The hurricane continues to turn more poleward and slow down, with an initial motion estimate of 330/9. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged with Patricia expected to turn northward during the next 12 hours as it moves around the periphery of a mid-level high centered over the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane is then forecast to accelerate north-northeastward between the high and an amplifying trough over northwestern Mexico. The latest NHC forecast is close to the previous one, nudged a bit to the east to better reflect the latest consensus guidance. Model guidance continues to suggest that the mid-level remnants and moisture from Patricia will be absorbed by a non-tropical area of low pressure that forms over south Texas or the northwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. This moisture could contribute to a major rainfall event already ongoing across portions of Texas. For more information, please refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely dangerous major hurricane Friday afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be completed as tropical storm conditions will begin to affect the warning area overnight or early Friday. 2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero beginning late tonight and continuing into Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 16.2N 105.1W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W 145 KT 165 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 19.7N 105.3W 125 KT 145 MPH...ON THE COAST 36H 24/1200Z 22.5N 103.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
  13. HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1000 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 Patricia continues to strengthen, with an eye evident in recent microwave images and intermittently seen in infrared imagery. The initial intensity is set to 85 kt, a bit above the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of T4.7/82 kt, and this could be a little conservative if the eye becomes more distinct in infrared imagery. Even so, Patricia has intensified 50 kt in the last 24 hours. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate Patricia later today and provide valuable information on the intensity and structure of the hurricane. The environment is expected to be conducive for continued rapid strengthening in the next 24 hours, with the cyclone in an area of very low shear and SSTs above 30C. In fact, the SHIPS RI index shows a 95 percent chance of a 40-kt increase in the next 24 hours. The official forecast is close to the upper end of the guidance near the LGEM, and shows Patricia reaching major hurricane status by this evening and continuing to intensify through Friday morning. Little change in intensity is forecast on Friday prior to landfall, as southwesterly shear begins to increase. After landfall, Patricia should rapidly weaken, and the low-level circulation should dissipate over the high terrain of Mexico before 72 hours. The hurricane continues to move quickly west-northwestward, with an initial motion estimate of 295/15. The track forecast philosophy has not changed, with Patricia expected to turn northwestward and then northward during the next 24 hours as it moves around the periphery of a mid-level high centered over the Gulf of Mexico. Then, the hurricane should turn north-northeastward between the high and an amplifying trough over northwestern Mexico. The new NHC track has again been shifted a little to the left to account for the initial motion and is near the latest GFS/ECMWF consensus on the western side of the guidance envelope. Based on the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning from north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas, which includes the Puerto Vallarta area. Note that model guidance suggests that the mid-level remnants and moisture from Patricia will be absorbed by a non-tropical area of low pressure that forms over south Texas or the northwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. This moisture could contribute to a major rainfall event already ongoing across portions of Texas. For more information, please refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Confidence is increasing that Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area as an extremely dangerous major hurricane Friday afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be completed today, as tropical storm conditions will begin to affect the warning area tonight or early Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 14.9N 103.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 15.8N 105.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 17.2N 105.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 19.3N 105.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 22.5N 103.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
  14. Decided to start this thread since Patricia appears to be a significant threat to the coastline of Mexico. The cyclone has become markedly better organized since this morning, with deep convection increasing the center, expanding upper-level outflow, and a partial eyewall on microwave imagery. The official NHC forecast has a Category 2 hurricane landfall near Manzanillo on Friday afternoon. I think it's safe to say at this point that this is a conservative prediction.