Shawn Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GGEM is a lot less of a winter mess in the midlands of SC. vs it's 00z run along with 00z Euro & EPS. I'm not betting against the EPS though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Exactly. They work in tandem. Stronger first wave, likely a weaker, more suppressed second wave. Yes, a strong lead wave will give NC a good shot at snow, but it could very well come at the expense of areas farther south and at the expense of western NC getting a second round of precip Wednesday. Right.. I suppose the best option for everyone is more of a balance of the strength of the 2 waves of energy in play here. The W NC precip from the 2nd wave has mainly been more of a sleet/ZR episode with 850 temps quickly rising as the high shifts off shore. Then again.. I hate ice and don't really want to wish it on folks. I think Shawn would hunt me down if I did. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 (i.e. about 0.8" liquid) Kind of falls in line with the GEFS precip mean, 0.5-0.75". 12z CMC (not Ens) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I'm not liking the overall trends for georgia and south carolina. If the euro caves, we might be out of luck and will have to sit here with our 33 degree rain while nc gets hammered. If euro does start to amplify the first wave then I agree, we might/prolly will watch as our friends to the north get smashed. That first wave is strong enough then CAD, for us, is not going to be that great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Total QPF 12z GEFS... around 1" along I-85.. mostly snow into NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 It comes down briefly at like 6z thur to 12z thur then go back up and back down. BUT it looks much drier up that way vs 00z run.. 12Z CMC: The 2nd wave looks like it probably gets MCN with some ZR between 96 and 108 ignoring the likely too warm 2 meter temp.'s of 35-38 when considering wedging and 850 near +5. It would be close imo. 1st wave likely gets ATL-AHN with major ZR imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Dr. No is about to start running. It will be interesting to see if it starts amplifying the front wave more, ie bad for SC and GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 It appears to me that the Ukmet is putting all the energy into the 2nd wave. In fact, it looks like it's trying to cut the surface low up towards the apps at 96 hrs as the CAD erodes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Comparing the GFS v/s CMC, they appears to miles apart which tells me this can still go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Dr. No is about to start running. It will be interesting to see if it starts amplifying the front wave more, ie bad for SC and GA Well, you have the amping unreliable 54-84 12Z NAM against the not so amped 0Z Euro, 12Z CMC, and 12Z Ukie pressurewise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 It appears to me that the Ukmet is putting all the energy into the 2nd wave. In fact, it looks like it's trying to cut the surface low up towards the apps as the CAD erodes? It keeps the trough axis neutral so the initial wave gets its energy feed cut off quickly. This was what the models were showing yesterday before the trend of a more juiced initial wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 THe first wave is amplifying at the expense of the second wave. As long as it remains pos tilted, it'll leak out its energy to feed the initial wave. Is that not a better solution for a more widespread NC snow event given the placement of the high pressure farther west? A stronger 2nd wave would be more ice SC/GA with the CAD in place as WAA erodes the mid level cold. Yeah, it's better for anyone Southern VA south for the Overunning to be the big show. Of course, if I get in on the action it' likely be at the expense of someone in southern NC. (Look to be in the 2-3 inch range on the CMC/NAM as currently modeled.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 12Z CMC: The 2nd wave looks like it probably gets MCN with some ZR between 96 and 108 ignoring the likely too warm 2 meter temp.'s of 35-38 when considering wedging and 850 near +5. It would be close imo. 1st wave likely gets ATL-AHN with major ZR imo. I could see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Well, you have the amping unreliable 54-84 12Z NAM against the not so amped 0Z Euro, 12Z CMC, and 12Z Ukie pressurewise. You can now add fwiw the 72 12Z JMA to the nonamped first wave camp. The NAM is still alone with its 1010 and further east wave #1. Extrapolating from hour 72 gives much of GA/SC much more overall vs. 12z NAM (my guess). 96+ not out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
socar2001 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Much more zr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 12z CMC gives NC about 2-4 inches on that first wave per SV snowfall maps. Upstate gets 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Well, you have the amping unreliable 54-84 12Z NAM against the not so amped 0Z Euro, 12Z CMC, and 12Z Ukie pressurewise. The canadian might not be as bad as I first thought. Although it's warmer at the surface, It's actually colder aloft than the 0z run. It does have the 0c 850mb isotherm making it into northeast ga. It's not much but another shift of that much then snow would be likely from blue ridge to hartwell. With sleet possibly making it down to gainesville to athens or elberton. This mornings run hits the upstate pretty good with snow it seems. fwiw, the uk is quite a bit colder aloft. Depending on the boundary layer temps, could be snow as far south as atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 12z CMC gives NC about 2-4 inches on that first wave per SV snowfall maps. Upstate gets 2 inches. That's all? Looked way more than that on the indivdual panels. The 72 hr panel alone looks to put down that much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Not sure if this matters for the first wave, but looking at this map, with 300% anomalies that just came ashore, that looks to be the more "moist" of the train coming ashore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 That's all? Looked way more than that on the indivdual panels. Yeah, it has to be more. Raleigh looked good for 7-8" or so based on the meteogram posted (0.80"ish QPF). The QPF maps brought the 0.50"+ area almost to the VA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 That's all? Looked way more than that on the indivdual panels. Sorry eastern side from about you to RDU is in the 4-6 range. On SV moisture didn't look great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Your right Lookout about it being colder aloft. I also agree with Larry that the 2m temps would likely be colder from the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 That's all? Looked way more than that on the indivdual panels.weatherbell has 9"+totals for the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 HR36 looks to be about the same so far with 12z doc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 it's a tiny bit colder at 850mb through hour 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 HR36 looks to be about the same so far with 12z doc Hour 48 maybe just a touch lighter with QPF but there is some showing up in WNC where 00z had none. Not quite connected to the system in the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 HR36 looks to be about the same so far with 12z doc I'm almost sure, based on 48, that 12Z Euro will NOT amp the 1st wave and bring it further east like the 12Z NAM. We'll see. Looks like 0Z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Be careful and focus on a weighted ensemble mean rather than the operational. Even with the ensemble mean, it is best to cut that amount in half. (ECMWF) Although the GFS does not have to agree, the GFS differences are on the extreme side. Would at least like it to come around a bit to increase confidence. We would all enjoy a good snow, but I don't want to see anyone get disappointed with unrealistic expectations. A lot will settle on Sunday Night/Monday morning that will allow confidence to increase. For those that have not seen it, Dr Maue's 1.5 hour interview this past week is a good study on how best to use model output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 HR54 the euro looks about the same...it actually appears the 2nd shortwave is a little bit stronger over VEGAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 @60 Euro looks wetter and colder compared to 00z. Not much colder but noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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