Southern Track Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Definitely wetter on the 18z, but man is it on an island compared to the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I say cut the NAM totals at least in half and you may have a good grasp on what might happen! I only had one inch last year and 1.25 this year so far so I would be tickled with half of the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GFS is trying... It's like a weaker, further south version of the NAM. It tries, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 18z GFS looks like nasty ICE for Birmingham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 That's HP/CAD is all roided up on th 18z GFS, last much longer, probably overdone though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 As dry as the GFS is, I would cash out with the 4 inches that it’s giving me right now if I could. The NAM has me perilously close to getting mainly sleet. Of course, the Ukmet/EURO are the best of both worlds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 48 hour total precip, at hour 96. Not a great outcome but a great trend: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_096_precip_p48.gif EDIT: It is a good run for the Central Coastal Plain of NC --Fayetteville to Goldsboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 That's HP/CAD is all roided up on th 18z GFS, last much longer, probably overdone thoughI think the GFS has been showing the weakest damming of all the models, so it's probably just catching on to reality! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GSP snow map???? Do they have a crystal ball that we haven't seen yet. I would think after seeing all of the other models for the last 24 hrs, we should be seeing way more than 0.9 inches of snow. It's nearly 3 days out... it's significant enough that they posted a snow map at this stage. They just want to make everyone aware that there's a likely change of winter precip. They will adjust many times as the models converge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 This guy deserves much more respect in the Atlanta market. http://www.cbsatlanta.com/story/24671551/winter-storm-targets-north-georgia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 48 hour total precip, at hour 96. Not a great outcome but a great trend:http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_096_precip_p48.gif You slide that entire precip field north 100 miles and it's laid out just like the nam from TN to OBX. I have to say I'm loving where MBY stands at right now. I'd say 4-12 is a good bet and really the pendellum is way closer to the 12 as opposed to the 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 It's nearly 3 days out... it's significant enough that they posted a snow map at this stage. They just want to make everyone aware that there's a likely change of winter precip. They will adjust many times as the models converge. I agree with you in principle. What I don’t understand are the mesoscale maxima’s and minima’s they have on the map 3 days out? The drew it as though they were watching the radar as the event was unfolding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 48 hour total precip, at hour 96. Not a great outcome but a great trend:http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_096_precip_p48.gif That's still a nice little winter storm for the areas that remain frozen, particularly by the standard set by the recent crappy winters. Why is the GFS so bad here, assuming it is wrong? Most other models show a significant winter storm, and it has been showing virtually nothing. I'm seriously asking. Is there something about this particular pattern that confounds that model? And I agree, who cares what DT thinks. He's fun to read, but he's wrong. A. Lot. He's probably looking at last year's ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I agree with you in principle. What I don’t understand are the mesoscale maxima’s and minima’s they have on the map 3 days out? The drew it as though they were watching the radar as the event was unfolding. Hmm.. well I guess that is a good question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Apps. Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The DT situation looks like someone who is just seething that NC could cash out while the mid-Atlantic on north wouldn't get too much. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 18z GFS radar simulation of the event: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Totally agree -- plus, all you have to do is look at a composite of recent Euro runs to know what his forecast will be. This might be mean, but does anyone really care what DT is talking/ranting about anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brownpm85 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I agree with you in principle. What I don’t understand are the mesoscale maxima’s and minima’s they have on the map 3 days out? The drew it as though they were watching the radar as the event was unfolding. Where can you fine the GSP snow maps for 3 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 18z GFS radar simulation of the event: Oh man the last thing Wilmington needs is more ice. My sister missed 4 days of school this past week from the last storm because the roads were so bad. Pretty surprised to see the freezing line get down to ILM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Where can you fine the GSP snow maps for 3 days out? Here's the latest one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 You slide that entire precip field north 100 miles and it's laid out just like the nam from TN to OBX. I have to say I'm loving where MBY stands at right now. I'd say 4-12 is a good bet and really the pendellum is way closer to the 12 as opposed to the 4.Maybe this is the model that will have the famous/infamous NW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Something I don't understand about DT report on the NAM forecast.3hrs ago the storm was showing 8-12 for NC .DT even said Charlotte to Greensboro coulg get 10 in. Now ONE hour later and the model says rain to snow east of Blue Ridge all of NC VA even up the coast. Ipray it was just a bad model run . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Something I don't understand about DT report on the NAM forecast.3hrs ago the storm was showing 8-12 for NC .DT even said Charlotte to Greensboro coulg get 10 in. Now ONE hour later and the model says rain to snow east of Blue Ridge all of NC VA even up the coast. Ipray it was just a bad model run . it's not rain ...don't know what he's talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 18z GFS radar simulation of the event: If I hadn't seen the other models, that would still be a good hit! It's still playing catch up tho. Take a blend of it and the NAM, you have the likely outcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 You slide that entire precip field north 100 miles and it's laid out just like the nam from TN to OBX. I have to say I'm loving where MBY stands at right now. I'd say 4-12 is a good bet and really the pendellum is way closer to the 12 as opposed to the 4. Ok if you need ,100 miles north frosty needs 150 mile shift!!! Lol all models keep the heaviest to my south. need a slight jog north. I hope everyone can get in on some good accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 18z RGEM looks nice at hour 54... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 That's nearly a 1040 high. That's stout! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Why is the GFS so bad here, assuming it is wrong? Most other models show a significant winter storm, and it has been showing virtually nothing. I'm seriously asking. Is there something about this particular pattern that confounds that model? Any takers on this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The DT situation looks like someone who is just seething that NC could cash out while the mid-Atlantic on north wouldn't get too much. We'll see. Hmm... he can sometimes show that side. The MA folks are definitely wishing on the Euro right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 If I hadn't seen the other models, that would still be a good hit! It's still playing catch up tho. Take a blend of it and the NAM, you have the likely outcome! Shift it up about 50 miles and quadruple the qpf and you'd have the NAM ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.