audioguy3107 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Well.........BHM isn't wasting any time after the last storm: ALZ011>015-017-018-020-091200-/O.NEW.KBMX.WS.A.0002.140211T0000Z-140211T1800Z/MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CHEROKEE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAMILTON...SULLIGENT...VERNON...FAYETTE...JASPER...ONEONTA...GADSDEN...CENTRE234 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGHTUESDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGHLATE TUESDAY MORNING.* TIMING...FROM 6 PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH NOON TUESDAY.* LOCATION...AT THIS TIME...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM MILLPORT TO ONEONTA TO CENTRE.* ACCUMULATIONS...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET COMBINED ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...AS WELL AS UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMA1973 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Noaa.gov has reduced the precip chances in the forecast for Raleigh. Was 50% earlier today for Tues-Thurs and now its 30%. Something is shaking their confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 DT said the EURO ensembles show all precip changing to rain in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Everyone is agreeing the consistent Euro is probably the way to go- and the NAM is nothing like it later on. Can't have it both ways folks. NAM vs Euro? No contest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Everyone is agreeing the consistent Euro is probably the way to go- and the NAM is nothing like it later on. Can't have it both ways folks. NAM vs Euro? No contest. Great post!!! Got to stay with the King when the road gets rough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMA1973 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I havent seen a forecast yet that had the precip not ending as rain in NC. DT said the EURO ensembles show all precip changing to rain in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 granted I have not seen the thermal profile from the 12z ecmwf looking at just the 2m and 850 temps, I'm not sure I am liking what I am seeing for the upstate. 850's look to be right at freezing or a degree or 2 above from beyond 84hr with surface temps solidly below freezing with quite a bit of precip falling. Sure hope this is sleet and not the "I" word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 DT said the EURO ensembles show all precip changing to rain in NC Verbatim it still has the snow thump like the Op but then once the low gets to the coast the freezing line is running through RDU to the east of CLT, so everyone east of that is rain, but bulk of precip is before that. He really said that? I bet he said E-NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Everyone is agreeing the consistent Euro is probably the way to go- and the NAM is nothing like it later on. Can't have it both ways folks. NAM vs Euro? No contest. I'm def. fine with either one. Obviously though the NAM is probably out to lunch as usual but it's fun to dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Everyone is agreeing the consistent Euro is probably the way to go- and the NAM is nothing like it later on. Can't have it both ways folks. NAM vs Euro? No contest. Also, nothing else is really even close to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Everyone is agreeing the consistent Euro is probably the way to go- and the NAM is nothing like it later on. Can't have it both ways folks. NAM vs Euro? No contest. I think most of the posters who have been around for any decent amount of time realize what the deal is. That being said just looking at the panels that Wow posted, even if for entertainment, are......jaw dropping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 DT said the EURO ensembles show all precip changing to rain in NC DT said the EURO ensembles show all precip changing to rain in NC Not sure what DT is seeing yet, I dont think individual members come out till later. The mean snowfall accumulation has actually increased on the 12z ECMWF ENS. At least graphically It has most of NE GA, northern half of SC and pretty much all of NC except extrem eastern US, in the 4-8 inch mean area, and even an area of 8-12 mean totals in NW SC and the southern foothills/piedmont of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Verbatim it still has the snow thump like the Op but then once the low gets to the coast the freezing line is running through RDU to the east of CLT, so everyone east of that is rain, but bulk of precip is before that. He really said that? I bet he said E-NC? here is what he said. bings the Low UP the coast and ON the coast .. NONE of this out to sea **** all of NC gos over to rain on the euro ensembles and does all of central and eastern VA EAST of the Blue Ridge. But from ROA to Winchseter to Frdereick MD ... the Shenandoah valley - stays all snow DCA BWI gets several inches of snow goes over to rain as does all of NJ DEL NYC most fo CT and eastern mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I think most of the posters who have been around for any decent amount of time realize what the deal is. That being said just looking at the panels that Wow posted, even if for entertainment, are......jaw dropping! I agree with your statement. The nam is the best, as shown now, but must temper excitement and listen to guidance. However, what a killer run! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I think most of the posters who have been around for any decent amount of time realize what the deal is. That being said just looking at the panels that Wow posted, even if for entertainment, are......jaw dropping! Even if you cut those totals in half that would still be a good thump around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 This might be mean, but does anyone really care what DT is talking/ranting about anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 This might be mean, but does anyone really care what DT is talking/ranting about anymore? I agree 100% I don't give a flip what he has to say, I was just clarifying what he said for them!!! He's a loose cannon anyway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 sounds good Frosty...just interesting character...btw, 18z gfs is running..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Even if you cut those totals in half that would still be a good thump around here. Yes it would. I think a blend of the NAM and Euro would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Just because it was such a great dream run on the 18z nam, I checked the cobb bufkit data: Winston-Salem: 14.5" Greensboro: 14.7" Charlotte: 9.6" Hickory: 12.8" Raleigh: 12.7" Asheville: 15.3" Here's a link if you want to check another site: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=namm&site=krdu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brownpm85 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Not sure if anyone has posted this and if it has been posted if it has feel free to delete it. GSP has a hazardous weather statement for pretty much their entire area. I am new to following winter weather but I don't recall gsp putting out anything this significant this early before. Again I could be wrong ..TUESDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP OVER THEREGION MONDAY NIGHT BETWEEN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS AND DEVELOPING LOWPRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL SPREADOVER THE FRONT TUESDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN SNOW FOR MUCH OF THEAREA...WITH FREEZING RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT.CONFIDENCE IS STILL FAIRLY LOW AS TO EXACTLY WHERE OR HOW MUCHSNOW WILL DEVELOP...BUT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION MAY BE SIGNIFICANT.POOR ROAD CONDITIONS MAY RESULT FROM SNOW AND ICE. MONITOR LATERFORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT...WEDNESDAY...WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE. THOUGH MANY AREAS WILL SEEPRECIPITATION CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...A WINTRYMIX MAY CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY...WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY CONTINUETHURSDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 DT is wrong. The euro ensembles keep the 850 level below freezing until hour 108 for western nc and even extreme nw south Carolina. By then the precip is freezing drizzle as the forcing is east of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Before the Montana s/w came into the picture, 6z NAM totals were half the amount they were in the following runs... I think this feature is what's kicking up the precip amts. Other models have this s/w as broken in pieces, weaker, or not existent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 This might be mean, but does anyone really care what DT is talking/ranting about anymore?I care a little. I mean he's kind of delusional and incredibly unprofessional, but still kind of like him. I think that he is knowledgable, he's just, like I said, delusional too. On social media, he kind of does his own thing. He doesn't care what you think. And even though he comes off as unprofessional much of the time, I kind of respect him for that. For being that ballsy. Sorry for being off topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GFS quite a bit stronger with the southern energy. Shocking. Wetter, further north thru 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GFS quite a bit stronger with the southern energy. Shocking. Wetter, further north thru 57 Good trends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Good trends? yes, good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Not a weenie run but its much better and wetter than previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Its still a totally different evolution compared to the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GFS is trying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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