burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 lol GFS drops nearly an inch of QPF on MBY. Be extremely cautious with this run. Just one of many possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Good jump today on the GFS. Ground was gained. And it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 What is the western cutoff for precip according to the 18z? AVL in the .01-.1 area for 12 hrs.... be cautious as burger said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Great video by Brad P. i have heard yall talking about him a lot but since he is way out of my neck of the woods i have not really seen it. thanks for posting that - it was an awesome video. a lot of people could benefit by watching him explain things, esp the cliff diving off one model or the near "oh my we are going to get 17" of snow" he explanation of the models, mean, sref, etc is spot on!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Snowing in the teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 This is so ridiculous, 18z GFS gone wild... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Needless, to say... it's snowing here in 66 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goduke Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Good Lord! I got heart flutter when I seen that 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Crack kills, 18z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 And it continues. This run will perk the DC guys interest. I can see it now more and more NW trends and in 36 hrs i'll end up being the one one with mixing issues. What a shift , but tilting the trof by phasing streams will do that. Over runing wont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Its the Baja low, that decides whether we get fringed or a nice event. GFS is all alone right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 As much as I hate to say it.... 18z gfs... Agreed, several members showed this type of event but the extreme ones you have to toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I finally waited long enough to get my 200 mile shift! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 RAH 5:00 briefing - I'm guessing before seeing the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 wow at 18z GFS. The GFS ensemble members have been hinting at this possibility (much more precip inland) 9 of the 20 12z GFS Ensemble members had decent precip well inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 This is so ridiculous, 18z GFS gone wild... too bad it's the GFS at 384... oh nevermind. that's just an auto response to a map like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Wow, drove the .25 line up to my do. Could easily be 4-5 inches up here at these temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Ok, the 18Z GFS is obviously overdone, but could it single some kind of inland shift? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 18z GFS is all snow west of I-95 to the mtns... a snow to mix east of I-95, and all mix along the immediate coast. Exception is NE NC where it looks to remain all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 18z GFS has well over an inch of liquid at RDU. Even if we cut this in half, with temps possible in the teens our snow ratios will be very high (15:1 or even 20:1). So we could still be looking at 10 inches of snow. We've seen this many times where the models ramp up precip totals. Man I really hope the GFS is showing the right setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Snow Goose had alluded to the fact that in is experience this year the EURO would shift more N/W within 36 hours. Again, that's this season. Could it be the GFS is catching onto something with the ingest of new data? (I am not sure new data went into the 18Z.) The 0Z Euro will be "must see tv" for us tonight in north GA. If the trends are there, I am just going to start watching WV loops and watch the trends unfold. The players are almost all the way on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Ok, the 18Z GFS is obviously overdone, but could it single some kind of inland shift? same old same old nw trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Looks like the major difference is the interaction of the streams over TX and negative tilt through 250mb more than the overrunning. A little more and north AL and southern TN would be in play IMO. In fact, 700mb is saturated across entire SE for a long duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 18z GFS has well over an inch of liquid at RDU. Even if we cut this in half, with temps possible in the teens our snow ratios will be very high (15:1 or even 20:1). So we could still be looking at 10 inches of snow. We've seen this many times where the models ramp up precip totals. Man I really hope the GFS is showing the right setup. Either way, the trends are awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 We have come full circle first love the euro hate the gfs, then love euro ensemble and canadian hate the euro/gfs, love the nam/canadian hate the euro/gfs, and now love the GFS hate the NAM/Canaidan. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Huffwx, on 26 Jan 2014 - 5:24 PM, said:Wow, drove the .25 line up to my do. Could easily be 4-5 inches up here at these temps You could do better than I by just being east. We'll still both be in the mid-teens during the entire event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 We have come full circle first love the euro hate the gfs, then love euro ensemble and canadian hate the euro/gfs, love the nam/canadian hate the euro/gfs, and now love the GFS hate the NAM/Canaidan. LOL Seems like we go through this every time. It also adds to the confusion after the fact when trying to decipher which model performed the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 GFS is fairly similar to the NAM with the exception of the degree of tilt to the trough. More vort energy falls back into the base of the trough on the GFS to make this happen. If too much energy strings out with the departing PV it won't have enough to make pull inland. GFS is more neutral, allowing precip to be drawn in further inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Will be interesting to see what the ensemble mean has to say, will it show the OP run as an outlier or show a bigger trend NW again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 You could do better than I by just being east. We'll still both be in the mid-teens during the entire event. My first thought 2-3 days ago was this looked like a 1-3 incher around here. Look at the coastal snow bombs in 1980 (Not the two that hit us) LYH pulled 3-4 inches both times. Also Feb 89, 3 inches. There are examples of being missed, like Dec 89, but.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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