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January 21-22 maybe January 24th potential very cold snow event. It's gonna snow dammit!

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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wxmanmitch

wxmanmitch

Posted
Posted

Smoking altostratus here as the sun is still faintly visible through the overcast. Southern sky is noticeably grayer than the northern sky, which has more of a bluish tint.

 

This is a toaster bath event for GC. I'm thinking a coating to maybe an inch north of the Pike, with 1-2" south of the Pike, but that may be optimistic given the new Euro.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Read and comprehend

High variance areal QPF typically occurs in frontogenetic setups like this one. An areal avg of 0.5 will not represent snow totals properly.

 

I think we stated that so many times, but fallen on deaf ears. Some will do awesome, some will be semi-screwed. Just the nature.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

I think we stated that so many times, but fallen on deaf ears. Some will do awesome, some will be semi-screwed. Just the nature.

Yet still we see posts about qpf cutting back etc .etc.. Just will never understand it

 

Radar looks good..Heavy band pivoting NW twds southern TOL and Windham counties in CT..Should even be into fairfield within the hour

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Mr. Windcredible!

Mr. Windcredible!

Posted
Posted

Hi, I live in Moosup Ct one house away from Sterling Ct about 5 miles from Foster RI. Some light snow falling, this storm reminds me of 12/21/09 , good luck to all. Us southern boys have been on the edge of good snows this winter hopefully we can enjoy a nice band. Deep deep winter as far as the weenie one eye can see.

 

12/21/09 crossed my mind earlier too. Of course…totals will be roughly half of what we saw from that…but watching the banding creep into S CT is definitely reminiscent of that one.

 

Snow has pretty much stopped here just some flurries now. I'm eagerly awaiting that LI band which I've been watching for the last couple of hours slowly trudge northward, and it's just about on my door step now, so things should pick up here in a bit.

 

Yup…band on my doorstep too. Intensity should pick up any minute.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

Nothing huge is changing, as long as you weren't expecting a foot there shouldn't be a need to change totals, don't worry about it. Close enough to the coast and not too far north.

Non dare speak of changes or possibility of downward potential changes , it will be called panic , a debby downer, or other non critical thought statements or crafted in some negative tone, that being said we shall see lol.

Band centered hair north of PHL thru NYC and still expanding lifting a tad. Lets see how far NE good lift gets. Im bullish for se ct to ginxy-cold miser and very bearish for HFD

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Yet still we see posts about qpf cutting back etc .etc.. Just will never understand it

 

Radar looks good..Heavy band pivoting NW twds southern TOL and Windham counties in CT..Should even be into fairfield within the hour

 

I actually think the NW areas (along I-84 from ORH to DXR) see a bit less while SE areas toward Ginx see more. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Rap is insistent on having the box map verify at least for the Boston area. We'll see...

 

 

I posted about the RAP a while back...it looks very good for BOS and back toward SE CT and has been fairly consistent in that regard for several runs. The banding will start to tilt more NW later on...so eastern areas should get a piece of it. Probably not as strong as it is to our SW, but pretty good nonetheless.

 

I'm thinking it will be difficult to verify warning amounts outside of 495 in MA and back into the NW half of CT...but we'll track that banding...if it gets a little further NW than the current guidance implies, then all bets are off.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Yet still we see posts about qpf cutting back etc .etc.. Just will never understand it

Radar looks good..Heavy band pivoting NW twds southern TOL and Windham counties in CT..Should even be into fairfield within the hour

It cut back because there was a slight shift SE. Better hope the banding reaches you.
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Mr. Windcredible!

Mr. Windcredible!

Posted
Posted

OKX has moved my area from the 6-8 band to the 8-10 band with their midday update.  I think that's optimistic.  I'm anticipating 4-6.

 

attachicon.gifStormTotalSnowFcst.png

 

Yeah…I was surprised to see them go 10-14" around here when they're usually very conservative. Not a whole lot to support those numbers. But they've been harping on 20:1 ratios on Facebook the past 2 days. I think they should've stuck with what they had. I doubt I sniff 10" here. But will happily eat crow if need be. 

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wx2fish

wx2fish

Posted
Posted

Yet still we see posts about qpf cutting back etc .etc.. Just will never understand it

 

Radar looks good..Heavy band pivoting NW twds southern TOL and Windham counties in CT..Should even be into fairfield within the hour

 

lol just posting what the Euro shows. I hope its too dry too, but have to consider it.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted

Yeah…I was surprised to see them go 10-14" around here when they're usually very conservative. Not a whole lot to support those numbers. But they've been harping on 20:1 ratios on Facebook the past 2 days. I think they should've stuck with what they had. I doubt I sniff 10" here. But will happily eat crow if need be. 

same here...we have about an inch, going to have to really go to town to get to 10-14.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Forky in it good, saw some reports of seven already in NJ, MR Windcredible we might see some 3/4 of 09 reports. Looks like a pretty raid expansion of snow is occurring, WST just went to 1/2 mile very quickly. Obviously a now cast event for specific jackpots. I am liking seeing my name referenced although in past years that has been a Jinx, lol. At any rate just enjoying watching it. Lt snowfall right now and looking forward to getting back on the skates skis and sleds.

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Mr. Windcredible!

Mr. Windcredible!

Posted
Posted

Read and comprehend

High variance areal QPF typically occurs in frontogenetic setups like this one. An areal avg of 0.5 will not represent snow totals properly.

 

Everyone knows that. But some of us enjoy watching last minute trends in obs, radar, and *gasp* models to try to zero in on where the jackpots are likely to setup versus who gets relatively screwed. It's called nowcasting. 

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