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January 21-22 maybe January 24th potential very cold snow event. It's gonna snow dammit!

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
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The GFS still has a decent amount of QPF and if anything would slightly cut back some across western sections...but it still continues to indicate that eastern MA, including the Cape will be the jackpot region and wouldn't be shocked to see a few isolated 18'' amounts. The GFS has a tremendous amount of lift centered across southern CT/RI and into eastern MA for pretty much the duration of the storm...so with this, even portions of southern/southeastern CT/RI are going to get crushed too.

Well the gfs really cut lift back from 1-2 am thru 7am over e mass/ne mass so thats def not a good thing on this run for bos/ 128 area. Just model disco not end of world talk lol.

Is this arguing or discussion, im sick of the crying about legit comments /trends as a system effects us . It cut lift a good amount , im sorry this upsets people lol. No one is canceling this storm jesus.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Pickles, for the love of Christ we get it.....you think "128 area" is screwed.

 

Every one of your posts for the last 18 hours has reflected that.

 

 

:lol:   :facepalm:

 

This is definitely not a classic snow event for SNE in terms of look and track...but somehow should throw decent snows pretty far weast because of our friend frontogenesis. I think BOX map may be a little on the heavy side.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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128 area mark my words will do well. Its 495 that is hairy. Not the western and southern portions. Once you are 495 towards littleton eek. Does OES enhancement work for ne ma again and cape ann to help counter act being slightly fringe? We'll see.

Logan sits pretty. Scott and Jerry are good.

OE is a non issue here.

Cape Ann.

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SlantStickers Anonymous

SlantStickers Anonymous

Posted
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128 area mark my words will do well. Its 495 that is hairy. Not the western and southern portions. Once you are 495 towards littleton eek. Does OES enhancement work for ne ma again and cape ann to help counter act being slightly fringe? We'll see.

Definitely, this is another one of those special set ups where being inside 128 is actually a plus for snow totals. I haven't heard much talk about OES for ne mass so curious if it'll be a factor here.

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NorEastermass128

NorEastermass128

Posted
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Eastern MA is in line for 5-10", with potential for higher amounts over se MA and cc.

Same deal as its always been, but the more robust trend just came came to a hault.

Yeah. Maybe instead of pushing the envelope of 5-10", we now may fall squarely within the envelope. I'd still be ecstatic with 5-6" considering a few days ago I wasn't expecting anything at all.
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NorEastermass128

NorEastermass128

Posted
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I think Woburn, Winchester, Everett, Lexington, Medford, Stoneham, Lynn, Malden, Melrose area do well.

Burlington, Wilmignton, Billerica, Andover, N Reading, Lowell, Dracut not so much.

Is N worburn on rt 128 area a wild card??

N Woburn is like a different climate than where I live on the west side. That highway is magical. Haha
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weathafella

weathafella

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We should all enjoy a nice snow event for many of us. The area from ORH to SE MA should do real well. There will probably be a mesoscale band in that swath that will give more, but lets just enjoy this. More to follow as well. Good times...enough bickering.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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And to clarify since I got a nervous text from a certain weenie..it obviously includes NE CT.

 

It's just a rough approx. Might be 20-40 miles either way. That's just how it works.

Kev, you dork.

 

Worcester is always just far enough in one direction.

 

Say that to yourself prior to each and every storm, on watch how infrequently it ends up not being the case.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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You guys are insufferable in your "oh my god it's not going to happen" paranoia ...

 

Tell me, do your hands shake when you slowly raise them over your keyboards in preparation to type your mortal fears?  We've gone over this time and time again; you can't control this stuff -- why let it control you?   Yet, it never, ever sinks in, and you let the weather guide your mood, dictate your happiness ... basically, erode the quality of your lives.  You really want to let it do that?   It really is insane.  Sorry, it just is. 

 

Anyway, I wouldn't be shocked at all if this did little more than advisory impact from roughly mid axial warning area and points N-W. Some of these later guidance E nuances are a bit more telling for me than mere nuance.  I see some synoptic issues with this thing that combined with now-cast = a bit of a negation.

 

This is cold rivaling anything we have had to date. Check out ALB's morning temperature rise:

211551 BKN110 OVC200                 10           7  -7 0206         202                  
211451 BKN130 OVC250                 10           7  -7 0206         197                  
211351 BKN140 OVC250                 10           6  -7 0106         195
211251 BKN150 OVC250                 10           6  -7 0106         187
211151 SCT180 OVC250                 10           6  -7 3203         182

This system may in fact not possess enough power to curl cyclonic action into this type of viscous air mass.  The wind max/jet structures in the mid levels have been persistently modeled as dying as it turns and lifts up in latitude along 70W. I have been questioning that suspect, but it occurs to me that this is likely due to having additional wave dynamics bullying into the bottom of the L/W axis (see NAM 27 hour), while the lead v-max turns that corner ... I.e., wave interference, a common theme in recent times.  Most guidance have this inharmonious dynamic going on.  

 

Still, there will be a low born of the lead v-max and it's bundle of tricks, as it won't have attenuated enough.  

 

I agree that it hearkens back to the storm during the first week of the month, but one thing that differs here is that our event entrance wind trajectories are NNW, then turn NNE ... perhaps NE on the Cape and Islands.  Back when, there took place a solid 6 hours of OES prior to synoptic forcing. This will not take place with this system, and will atone [perhaps] to about half the snow impact off this as a direct comparison (talking eastern zones).  Down along the SE coastal areas, the Cape and Islands may fair better with some double seeding, however. 

 

I am just not that impressed with this guy. I think he would do better if he were not getting some mechanical robbery by the follow-up S/W blasting off the Carolinas.  Whether you can see it or not, it imposes negative curvature against the lead impulse that's spinning up the low, and that causes a net reduction in it's capability to deepen a vortex strong enough to carve into this molasses of an air mass.  

Just don't be surprised if this under-performs NW of HFD-ORH-LWM -ish line is all I'm saying, and maybe in general.  

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