January 21-22 maybe January 24th potential very cold snow event. It's gonna snow dammit!

[CT Rain]

Now cast.

 

Open a RAD window and place yourself on mute.

 

Don't think radar looks particularly good for areas to the N & W... still looks good for the favored areas from SE CT, RI, and E Mass. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Don't think radar looks particularly good for areas to the N & W... still looks good for the favored areas from SE CT, RI, and E Mass. 

I just want 5" of snow.

[weatherwiz]

No changes from my forecast of yesterday...if anything perhaps far western areas of this forecast might need to be bumped down a *bit* but I don't see strong enough evidence to do so.  

 

Looking over forecast soundings and such, snowgrowth should be rather excellent...for everyone this time too (unlike Jan 2nd) and bufkit is showing some pretty wild snowfall ratios...even as high as 25:1...now we may not see them THAT high but that just goes to show what we will be dealing with.  

 

The 850mb circulation really begins to tighten up as well as it just passes the benchmark which is a major plus...too bad no real 700mb circulation gets going but whatever.

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

This is, and always has been, a SE Mass special

 

Some people need to lighten up with a) the toaster baths  b ) the criticism of the toaster baths

[ackwaves]

Dude, the GFS isn't as bad as some are saying. I'm looking at it right now.

Looks good to me. What ratios do you think for down here? I'm thinking under 10 :1

[40/70 Benchmark]

I won't se suprised if this does the classis oe shuffle, and S+ doesn't make progress past Boston.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I won't se suprised if this does the classis oe shuffle, and S+ doesn't make progress past Boston.

I think Cape Ann could still get some of that (S+) late in the game

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Crunch time arrives and some of you are puking like McNabb in the SB.

[Bostonseminole]

it's going to snow, I'm think 6-8" is likely for me, enjoy.

[jamesnichols1989]

I forgot that McNabb puked during the Superbowl, until I watched the 2004 Patriots video on NFL Network last Saturday.  

 

Anyways, GFS looks way more aggressive with the H5 vort max than the NAM does and RAP follows the GFS line of thinking with regards to the impulse over the OH Valley currently.

[Sugarloaf1989]

I didn't know you and Coventry1971 were tight like that. Nice

 

What the hell are you talking about?

[jamesnichols1989]

Visible satellite imagery indicates the surface really deepening with moisture and lift within the warm sector of the storm, this is a great sign for a potential low level jet dynamics and a potential thundersnow component later on tonight.  I think this storm explodes more so than models projected.

[segv]

Any thoughts on when the precip will arrive in the Hopkinton, MA area?

[Zeus]

Crunch time arrives and some of you are puking like McNabb in the SB.

 

I like how you call it crunch time as if any action on our part has any impact on the results of the event.

[Zeus]

Any thoughts on when the precip will arrive in the Hopkinton, MA area?

 

Today.

[sankaty]

I like how you call it crunch time as if any action on our part has any impact on the results of the event.

 

If I don't end up with 10" of snow, it's because one of you all didn't believe.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Any thoughts on when the precip will arrive in the Hopkinton, MA area?

5:47 PM...

[HoarfrostHubb]

I like how you call it crunch time as if any action on our part has any impact on the results of the event.

I am running my air conditioner backwards

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Looks like Rhode Island may be in line for some good snows, break out of that snow hole thing they've had going on there

[weatherwiz]

MCD

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0031
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA/ERN MD/SERN PA/DE/NJ/SERN NY/CT

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 211603Z - 212200Z

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1" TO 2" PER HOUR ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE/EXPAND ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND INTO SRN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW IN THE SWRN
VA/NWRN NC/NERN TN VICINITY...WITH HINTS OF SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPMENT NERN THE NERN NC/SERN VA COAST. WITH TIME...THIS
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME THE PRIMARY
CYCLONE...DEEPENING WITH TIME AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE
CYCLOGENESIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING ESEWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND INTO
SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNSET...WITHIN A DEFORMATION ZONE EXPECTED
TO BECOME WELL-DEFINED N/NW OF THE OFFSHORE CYCLOGENESIS.

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL NOW OCCURRING FROM THE
ERN HALF OF MD AND ADJACENT NRN VA NEWD TO SRN NJ...WITH AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER THE LAST HOUR.
EXPECT A CONTINUED EXPANSION -- AND VERY SLOW ENEWD SHIFT -- OF THE
ZONE OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF FOCUSED
ASCENT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND UVV OCCURRING WITHIN THE MOST
FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND WITH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS
LIKELY TO RESIDE ON THE HIGHER END /AVERAGING IN THE 15-1
RANGE/...EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES OF 1" TO 2" PER HOUR ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

..GOSS.. 01/21/2014


ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 41097485 41697232 41287204 40617213 39847374 38987536
38897543 38337700 38157787 38357850 39007854 39607825
40187720 41097485 

[jamesnichols1989]

Start times will be around 1-2pm for CC and Islands, 2-3pm for BOS and points northwest.

[Cold Miser]

lol.

Reading some of the last couple of posts one would have thought that a few folks may have jumped off of the Tobin, or carved a hole in the ice of some small, hidden, deep body of water somewhere...tied rocks to their ankles and slid in...not to be seen until May 1st as a water logged, bloated, human baloon of rotted flesh.

[weathafella]

Any thoughts on when the precip will arrive in the Hopkinton, MA area?

 

Today.

You're on fire today!

[40/70 Benchmark]

lol.

Reading some of the last couple of posts one would have thought that a few folks may have jumped off of the Tobin, or carved a hole in the ice of some small, hidden, deep body of water somewhere...tied rocks to their ankles and slid in...not to be seen until May 1st as a water logged, bloated, human baloon of rotted flesh.

October, with some luck...

[N. OF PIKE]

Looks like Rhode Island may be in line for some good snows, break out of that snow hole thing they've had going on there

S ct se ct has been consistently modeled under some of the most prolonged mid level lift on most runs ive seen. I think they will do very well. But remember with the band their will be winners and losers, more so than in the "average system" this will be fun lol. I think sw ri does well this afternoon into the overnite period as well. When i say well i think s ct se ct sw ri could see a foot wherever sits under the band.

Right from weenie ave to noose neck street but not more then five steps east of the town hall haha

[Mr. Windcredible!]

S ct se ct has been consistently modeled under some of the most prolonged mid level lift on most runs ive seen. I think they will do very well. But remember with the band their will be winners and losers, more so than in the "average system" this will be fun lol. I think sw ri does well this afternoon into the overnite period as well. When i say well i think s ct se ct sw ri could see a foot wherever sits under the band.

Right from weenie ave to noose neck street but not more then five steps east of the town hall haha

 

Maybe it's just me trying some reverse psychology…but given some of the latest trends I'm not sure I see the heaviest band over CT make it much farther inland than coastal New London county. LI looks pretty good as does the southern 2/3rds of RI IMO. Maybe a line from PVD down towards OKX on LI. I'm doubting anything better than 6" to maybe 8" NW of that line…with best banding staying along that line and SE. But we'll see. 

[CT Rain]

Maybe it's just me trying some reverse psychology…but given some of the latest trends I'm not sure I see the heaviest band over CT make it much farther inland than coastal New London county. LI looks pretty good as does the southern 2/3rds of RI IMO. Maybe a line from PVD down towards OKX on LI. I'm doubting anything better than 6" to maybe 8" NW of that line…with best banding staying along that line and SE. But we'll see. 

 

I do think you'll see a bump north... eventually that band is going to pivot and orient itself more SW-NE as opposed to WSW-ENE. 

[N. OF PIKE]

I do think you'll see a bump north... eventually that band is going to pivot and orient itself more SW-NE as opposed to WSW-ENE.

From 4-10 that band is gonna bomb someone in ct over to maybe ginxy

[Mr. Windcredible!]

I do think you'll see a bump north... eventually that band is going to pivot and orient itself more SW-NE as opposed to WSW-ENE. 

 

pivot point is key though. 

[BostonWX]

RPm is still cutting back. Now t-2 much of Essex county. 4 inch line imby