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January 21-22 maybe January 24th potential very cold snow event. It's gonna snow dammit!

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Can you expand on this? Is it due to wind direction?

 

IMO yes...but it's also indicative of the further S&E track of course.  I can't recall many storms that have started sub 20 here.  Everything coated already.  In fact maybe 05 I don't remember...but can't remember a major snowstorm that's started so low.

 

Eliminates CF forcing to the north too.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Everyone will get some accumulating snows as the steady snow has made it into AVP and MSV...that means even Berks will get in on steadier snows for at least a time....but you Jackpot Jimmys northwest of a BOS-PVD-HVN line will not be happy if you are expecting a death band. I think its going to be tough to get one NW of that line...perhaps it can make it to 128 over to like Ginxys area and just S of HFD...we'll see.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Everyone will get some accumulating snows as the steady snow has made it into AVP and MSV...that means even Berks will get in on steadier snows for at least a time....but you Jackpot Jimmys northwest of a BOS-PVD-HVN line will not be happy if you are expecting a death band. I think its going to be tough to get one NW of that line...perhaps it can make it to 128 over to like Ginxys area and just S of HFD...we'll see.

 

Agreed.

Will you seeing the euro yet?

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
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IMO yes...but it's also indicative of the further S&E track of course.  I can't recall many storms that have started sub 20 here.  Everything coated already.  In fact maybe 05 I don't remember...but can't remember a major snowstorm that's started so low.

 

Eliminates CF forcing to the north too.

What were your temps Jan 3?

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Mr. Windcredible!

Mr. Windcredible!

Posted
Posted

Everyone will get some accumulating snows as the steady snow has made it into AVP and MSV...that means even Berks will get in on steadier snows for at least a time....but you Jackpot Jimmys northwest of a BOS-PVD-HVN line will not be happy if you are expecting a death band. I think its going to be tough to get one NW of that line...perhaps it can make it to 128 over to like Ginxys area and just S of HFD...we'll see.

 

I'm not sure it even makes it that far NW to be honest. S RI - SE MA special…as it has pretty much been all along.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
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I'm not sure it even makes it that far NW to be honest. S RI - SE MA special…as it has pretty much been all along.

You can see the band starting to lift/strengthening on mt holly radar and really getting fed from the south. I wonder how far the north eastern extension of it gets this pm (into ct/ri) while its still alligned wsw/ene b4 any pivot

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Everyone will get some accumulating snows as the steady snow has made it into AVP and MSV...that means even Berks will get in on steadier snows for at least a time....but you Jackpot Jimmys northwest of a BOS-PVD-HVN line will not be happy if you are expecting a death band. I think its going to be tough to get one NW of that line...perhaps it can make it to 128 over to like Ginxys area and just S of HFD...we'll see.

 

lol

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Mr. Windcredible!

Mr. Windcredible!

Posted
Posted

Also…the snow falling right now is why I don't think it' worth forecasting more than 12:1 ratios. Lots of people…even OKX have been banking on 20:1 ratios turning 0.5" QPF into a 8-10" forecast. Sure…when you get into decent banding, we'll see some decent ratios kick in. But we waste some of the QPF on this crap 6-8:1 pixie dust. A couple hours under 20:1 ratios isn't gonna make up for that. Most places will average out to 10-12:1 IMO. Obviously longer duration storms you can bank on getting up to 18-20:1 averages under prolonged banding. Tough to pull it out in these short duration events when you have to factor in this light overrunning stuff.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

What were your temps Jan 3?

 

I was around or just over freezing for the majority of that storm when you guys were all getting smoked.  It's frigid here.  Like I said Will may remember better what 05 temps were...but I never remember a major snow event here where temps STARTED in the teens.    That's good for us, but I totally believe the Euro/other models are right in cutting this back N&W

 

Also…the snow falling right now is why I don't think it' worth forecasting more than 12:1 ratios. Lots of people…even OKX have been banking on 20:1 ratios turning 0.5" QPF into a 8-10" forecast. Sure…when you get into decent banding, we'll see some decent ratios kick in. But we waste some of the QPF on this crap 6-8:1 pixie dust. A couple hours under 20:1 ratios isn't gonna make up for that. Most places will average out to 10-12:1 IMO. Obviously longer duration storms you can bank on getting up to 18-20:1 averages under prolonged banding. Tough to pull it out in these short duration events when you have to factor in this light overrunning stuff.

 

Agreed.  It's crap here right now, dust.  Once the OE contributes should get better.

 

NJ, NYC, LI, south coast of sne jackpot?

 

fella I'm still worried about my hood...CCB looks to mainly either just get me or miss to my S&E.  Still a bust potential here, but overall I think it's about 85% of a go for a biggie.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

What did we say? The American models burp a bit too amped and then slide SE towards go time, while the ECM doesn't swing quite as wildly. As I've found out a few times this year, having the GFS and NAM way NW at 36 hour lead time doesn't mean it's going to happen. Ginxy to Messenger to BOS special right here but everyone in SNE will be white when it's done. No big surprises. Looks great for S/SE areas.

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