wx2fish Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 BTV WRF continues to look interesting. 21z 4km RPM is hitting your weenie OES bands pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 BTV WRF continues to look interesting. Do tell please. I'm still writing notes at work..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 21z 4km RPM is hitting your weenie OES bands pretty good. Extent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Kevin made this map.... pic.twitter.com/6Kf2C3bgO5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 BTV WRF continues to look interesting. Looks good for bos north I could see that 30f dp line at 4am being r/s line at least wrt to 128 if models are underestimating marine influence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Extent? It brings some light snow bands onshore especially south of the city around midday. Maybe an inch along shore verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Kevin made this map.... pic.twitter.com/6Kf2C3bgO5 Its Quincy's map and the colder runs this afternoon certainly lean Twds it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Its Quincy's map and the colder runs this afternoon certainly lean Twds it I got your local station (WTIC) on my car radio as I was picking up pizza. Bob Cox was calling 4-10 across the state (figure you're on that high end) and up to 12" in Litchfield and far NW Hartford. He also threw a bone to the east slope and said "upwards of a foot". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I got your local station (WTIC) on my car radio as I was picking up pizza. Bob Cox was calling 4-10 across the state (figure you're on that high end) and up to 12" in Litchfield and far NW Hartford. He also threw a bone to the east slope and said "upwards of a foot". Bobs usually pretty conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 He posts on here Its Quincy's map and the colder runs this afternoon certainly lean Twds it I know - just funny that the 12+ goes over Kevin's house. I don't think CT has a shot at 12+...that seems high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I turn him off as soon as I hear him. Downplays everything in wx . Fox has sine good mets like Furey and Sampieri He and I went to school together. He graduated a couple of years before me - that's they way we were taught. Be conservative with an eye toward reality instead of what you want. I think his call for 8-10" for us is right on. We're on the edge for higher amounts or lower amounts (I think). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 strange...I really thought looking at the maps that the 18z GFS would be colder...but soundings looks about the same...at least down here near the shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I turn him off as soon as I hear him. Downplays everything in wx . Fox has sine good mets like Furey and Sampieri That's not a conservative call. 4" down toward the water up to 10" further in. Seems pretty reasonable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Rest up everybody. Going to be a long night tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Walt Drag is still killing it. Man I miss him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 What was 12/9/05? I lived in Southern Cali at that time... You know the scene in the movie Twister when they are having lunch at the Aunts House. And non-chaser girl asks if there is an F5 and everyone goes silent. 12-9-05 is our F5 where we go silent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Current 850s: http://www.spc.noaa....lay=0&source=1# 18z GFS hour 6: 18z NAM Hour 6: As you can see, the NAM is verifying quite well ATM with the GFS not too far behind, although the GFS does have the -10C isotherm a bit further north than what it actually is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Ah I remember those days ^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Walt Drag is still killing it. Man I miss him.The Mt Holly AFD? Nicely done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The Mt Holly AFD? Nicely doneyeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The NWS Boston and Albany office's snow fall prediction maps match up nicely. It's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Here is the map that I am running with. My scanner is down so I had to make this one mechanically. The only area I am not that confident in is SE Mass. Also makes the numbers a bit tough to read. Blue = 7-10" Purple = 10-14" Green = 5-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Here is the map that I am running with. My scanner is down so I had to make this one mechanically. The only area I am not that confident in is SE Mass. That actually looks good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Here is the map that I am running with. My scanner is down so I had to make this one mechanically. The only area I am not that confident in is SE Mass. Also makes the numbers a bit tough to read. Blue = 7-10" Purple = 10-14" Green = 5-8" My final call made about 36 hours ago is 7-11 in my hood, so agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Here are the forecast maps from the Albany TV mets: WNYT: WRGB: WTEN: ALY WFO: I like WTEN's map the best as it pretty echoes my thinking exactly. It does the best job with accounting for the terrain impacts around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Walt Drag is still killing it. Man I miss him. Say what you will about the model, but this is a situation where I would love to see the GFS have data every 3 hours. It shows the potential for really healthy banded precip in the WAA, but it is around Long Island at 06z and over CON to PWM by 12z. Basically it is intimating that SNE peaks around 09z. You can still get the idea from the cross section here (running from E of LI to near LEB), but the mid levels are starting to dry out already by 12z. On the left side, frontogenesis on the bottom panel is going to be strong and there is a nice layer of -EPV above it (good for banding). The top right is RH with ageostrophic streamlines overlaid on it. As a result of that frontogenesis you'll get a nice thermally direct circulation that forms, leading to the strong lift on the warm side of the mid level front. Bottom right is off on the color curve (air mass changes the color scale but the colors don't follow it, damn computers) but you can infer the numbers showing strong lift (15+ ubar/s) through the snow growth zone around 09z if you back up the lift near EEN to the S (right of the panel). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I like WTEN's map the best as it pretty echoes my thinking exactly. It does the best job with accounting for the terrain impacts around here. Agreed... the shadowing will be real on the western slope of the Berks/Taconics. The BTV4 even shows as little as 0.25-0.5" QPF in the downslope region, while over an inch falls on the eastern slope. I also love ALY and BUF issuing advisories for 5-10". It makes a lot of sense and I like them following the criteria, rather than playing the "this is the first storm of the season so we'll toss the criteria out the window..." type stuff. THE OTHER ISSUE TO BE DEALT WITH IS THE SNOW CRITERIA: 7" IN 12 HOURS VS. 9" IN 24-HRS. THIS STORM IS GOING TO LAST FOR 18-24 HRS. THE SECOND ROUND OF THE STORM OVERNIGHT IS WHEN THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. THE FCST THINKING AT THIS POINT IS FOR 5-10" FOR THE ADVISORY AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 That actually looks good... My final call made about 36 hours ago is 7-11 in my hood, so agreed. Thanks boys. I do think that the cold air will hang tough, but to what extent who knows. Which is what is making SE MA so difficult. Cold air hangs and they need to be in the 10-14", if it goes to rain quick and then they need to be in the 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Thanks boys. I do think that the cold air will hang tough, but to what extent who knows. Which is what is making SE MA so difficult. Cold air hangs and they need to be in the 10-14", if it goes to rain quick and then they need to be in the 1-3". Even if the cold air did hang around down there the ratios wouldn't be good enough to just 10-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Agreed... the shadowing will be real on the western slope of the Berks/Taconics. The BTV4 even shows as little as 0.25-0.5" QPF in the downslope region, while over an inch falls on the eastern slope. I also love ALY and BUF issuing advisories for 5-10". It makes a lot of sense and I like them following the criteria, rather than playing the "this is the first storm of the season so we'll toss the criteria out the window..." type stuff. THE OTHER ISSUE TO BE DEALT WITH IS THE SNOW CRITERIA: 7" IN 12 HOURS VS. 9" IN 24-HRS. THIS STORM IS GOING TO LAST FOR 18-24 HRS. THE SECOND ROUND OF THE STORM OVERNIGHT IS WHEN THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. THE FCST THINKING AT THIS POINT IS FOR 5-10" FOR THE ADVISORY AREA. At least we've had a few teasers with at least an inch that have tested motorists. At this point it's been mid January like for a couple weeks, you should expect snow is a possibility. I think the only thing WFOs changed up for this event is going a little early with headlines so that the word gets out before the weekend when people tend to tune out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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