Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 ha! was thinking about this a few minutes ago. definitely has flash freeze written all over it I always thumbed my nose at that as being overrated ...until one time at band camp I stuck my car in a ditch... Seriously, I was driving up Rt 1 out of New Bed in a backside cold punch once and the wet roads started sparkling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 That's definitely not the way it works. If you forecast 2-4 and get 8-10, plows are on the road anyway. If you forecast 3-6 and get 1 you waste lots of money. And as Will stated, the next storm they don't listen to you and the 8-10 goes unplowed. yep. and people get pissed. the other way around, they just say "the only job where you get paid to be wrong" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 ha! was thinking about this a few minutes ago. definitely has flash freeze written all over it Pretty high impact but luckily Sunday and most home in their feety PJs drinking the fine stuff. Hey fantastic write up by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I always thumbed my nose at that as being overrated ...until one time at band camp I stuck my car in a ditch... Seriously, I was driving up Rt 1 out of New Bed in a backside cold punch once and the wet roads started sparkling. You gonna throw out some forecast totlas for the region? Usually you do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I always thumbed my nose at that as being overrated ...until one time at band camp I stuck my car in a ditch... Seriously, I was driving up Rt 1 out of New Bed in a backside cold punch once and the wet roads started sparkling. i've only experienced a true "flash freeze" one time and it was pretty amazing. i agree, this will have that kind of boundary i think. and it'll plow back and shouldn't have the strong NW drying flow that sometimes mitigates the issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 He has been upgraded to 10.6" now from 9.9" Congrats to all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 yep. and people get pissed. the other way around, they just say "the only job where you get paid to be wrong" I got that today on FB and went into high defense mode for you Mets, pisses me off well not pisses but something in the Blood Pressure goes up. Saving thousands of lives and property every year should be held in higher esteem and I let them know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 18z NAM shafts BDL by about .2" QPF with subsistance dryslotting. Just my luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 18z NAM shafts BDL by about .2" QPF with subsistance dryslotting. Just my luck. Hasn't happened yet...settle down lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 The 18z NAM (fwiw) would shift some heavier S concerns a bit further S -- but I suspect most can derive that conclusion given to the slightly colder run. I think overall we are in line for a moderate impact event -- relative to the sensible weather history/experience of living in SNE. When all is said and done we'll be happy as winter weather enthusiasts, while knowing we've been through much bigger events. I think the heavier amts will be along an axis from HFD-PWM ...down to the W suburbs of Boston and back. This thinking does not include oreographic enhancing or any of that other local studies crap. I still think that there is some chance for thundersnow along eastern side of that region, given to multi-guidance TTs bouncing to the lower 50s, and the a-priori knowledge/experience with these types of fast, but potent open waves. Not including any 18z runs... I am also still not liking even the Euro's 12z run of blithely plowing so much warm air in aloft when it's own vorticity advection is S of the 850 warm conveyor terminus. Not sure how to acct for that but almost want to call it bullcrap. We'll see. But...grudgingly, I have to concede to p-type contamination working S of HFD-BOS...ranging out to brief snow then a flip kitchen sink/rain out around Phil's neck of the beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Whdh map is in line with my thinking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Warnings flying: Congrats to all ..WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM ESTSUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZINGRAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY.THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...INCLUDE NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHWEST RHODEISLAND...WESTERN...CENTRAL...EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERNMASSACHUSETTS...AS WELL AS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS INCLUDESTHE CITIES OF HARTFORD...BOSTON...WORCESTER...SPRINGFIELD...NASHUAAND MANCHESTER.* HAZARD TYPES...A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW FOLLOWED BY A BRIEFPERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...ALONGWITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.* TIMING...SNOW OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND MIDDAYSATURDAY...BECOMING STEADIER AND HEAVIER AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAYCONTINUING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FORA BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BY EARLYSUNDAY MORNING OVER A MAJORITY OF THE WARNED AREA...BEFORECONCLUDING SUNDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 BOX warning amounts are good IMO. Not too overblown unlike GYX and ALB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Ray's area to BED to Tip's garden jackpot. 12"ish Unless some weenie band develops near Danvers 8-10" in this area but maybe a teeny bit more. MPM and Chris get this as well into SNH out to ASH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 BOX warning amounts are good IMO. Not too overblown unlike GYX and ALB. Maybe an inch or two near the coast, but I think we look pretty good at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 its interesting to see box still issued a watch along with the advisory for PVD and any city on the edge of the warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The 18z NAM (fwiw) would shift some heavier S concerns a bit further S -- but I suspect most can derive that conclusion given to the slightly colder run. I think overall we are in line for a moderate impact event -- relative to the sensible weather history/experience of living in SNE. When all is said and done we'll be happy as winter weather enthusiasts, while knowing we've been through much bigger events. I think the heavier amts will be along an axis from HFD-PWM ...down to the W suburbs of Boston and back. This thinking does not include oreographic enhancing or any of that other local studies crap. I still think that there is some chance for thundersnow along eastern side of that region, given to multi-guidance TTs bouncing to the lower 50s, and the a-priori knowledge/experience with these types of fast, but potent open waves. Not including any 18z runs... I am also still not liking even the Euro's 12z run of blithely plowing so much warm air in aloft when it's own vorticity advection is S of the 850 warm conveyor terminus. Not sure how to acct for that but almost want to call it bullcrap. We'll see. But...grudgingly, I have to concede to p-type contamination working S of HFD-BOS...ranging out to brief snow then a flip kitchen sink/rain out around Phil's neck of the beaches. Yeah this isn't your typical SWFE..we have a highly anomolous cold dome overhead..freshly supplied..So the typical caveats of mid level warm intrusions can't be applied as one might expect. the same idea gors for coastal folks who are worried about a quick flip to rain..they will snow far longer than some forecast /models we've seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 BOX still has the same map from earlier. Makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Pretty high impact but luckily Sunday and most home in their feety PJs drinking the fine stuff. Hey fantastic write up by the way. Lucky for me, my wife and daughter are making their annual pilgrimage to the American Girl store in the Natick Mall. Leaving me at home to track the storm. Played out pretty damn well! 20.4/13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 its interesting to see box still issued a watch along with the advisory for PVD and any city on the edge of the warning. Unless I'm bluffing I only see the watches up. But that's something I wish NWS stations would do more often, at least to highlight potential for an over-performing system and then put at the end "should confidence increase on higher impacts the advisory would be cancelled and upgraded to a WSW" or something to that effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Just curious how ALB's zones are overblown? For most of the area they either have a WWA for 5-10 or WSW for 6-12 (6-10 for Mid-Hudson and NW CT areas).... BOX warning amounts are good IMO. Not too overblown unlike GYX and ALB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Still just a watch here and they came down from 6-10 to 4-6 within the watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Unless I'm bluffing I only see the watches up. But that's something I wish NWS stations would do more often, at least to highlight potential for an over-performing system and then put at the end "should confidence increase on higher impacts the advisory would be cancelled and upgraded to a WSW" or something to that effect. I read it in my p and c, the new date on the watch was 4ish today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Just curious how ALB's zones are overblown? For most of the area they either have a WWA for 5-10 or WSW for 6-12 (6-10 for Mid-Hudson and NW CT areas).... I was referring to the map before their 11AM update that had 10-14 in Litchfield County. Its within a realm of acceptability IMO but I could see it being a little to high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Still just a watch here and they came down from 6-10 to 4-6 within the watch. the p and c's are all over the place in just a few miles. a mile north of me its 4-8 mile south 3-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The 18z NAM (fwiw) would shift some heavier S concerns a bit further S -- but I suspect most can derive that conclusion given to the slightly colder run. I think overall we are in line for a moderate impact event -- relative to the sensible weather history/experience of living in SNE. When all is said and done we'll be happy as winter weather enthusiasts, while knowing we've been through much bigger events. I think the heavier amts will be along an axis from HFD-PWM ...down to the W suburbs of Boston and back. This thinking does not include oreographic enhancing or any of that other local studies crap. I still think that there is some chance for thundersnow along eastern side of that region, given to multi-guidance TTs bouncing to the lower 50s, and the a-priori knowledge/experience with these types of fast, but potent open waves. Not including any 18z runs... I am also still not liking even the Euro's 12z run of blithely plowing so much warm air in aloft when it's own vorticity advection is S of the 850 warm conveyor terminus. Not sure how to acct for that but almost want to call it bullcrap. We'll see. But...grudgingly, I have to concede to p-type contamination working S of HFD-BOS...ranging out to brief snow then a flip kitchen sink/rain out around Phil's neck of the beaches. Yeah this isn't your typical SWFE..we have a highly anomolous cold dome overhead..freshly supplied..So the typical caveats of mid level warm intrusions can't be applied as one might expect. the same idea gors for coastal folks who are worried about a quick flip to rain..they will snow far longer than some forecast /models we've seen You'll ping. Not a big deal. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 BOX still has the same map from earlier. Makes sense Dave--did you guys pick up accumulations out there today? Sorry for the OT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I read it in my p and c, the new date on the watch was 4ish today Yea just read the new watch text. Its a watch with advisory level accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 the p and c's are all over the place in just a few miles. a mile north of me its 4-8 mile south 3-7. What's your location? Sorry just want to get an idea lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 GFS at 12z Sunday. Dry slot has worked into SNE by this time, but that is a nice signal for a solid band of heavy snow across southern NH and southwestern ME. 20 ubar/s solidly within a saturated snow growth zone. This look very similar across MA 6 hours before this panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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