powderfreak Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Yeah but if you call for 2-4 and folks get 8-10 it becomes a problem. Other way does not Well anytime you miss a forecast by 6-8" like in your example people will get annoyed. I know you'd be pissed if forecasts for 8-10 turned into 2-4". But I think in general if you see 7" as the likely number, don't go 6-12" but go 5-8" or something. There's no reason to hype stuff up more than it needs to be, lol....but we know you like that stuff given your screen name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 New thread already? I was hoping we could make 100 pages first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Srefs plume stayed steady here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Not only that, if you bust high a majority of the time, then the idea of "warning the public" is a moot point because nobody is going top believe your "warnings". They will just think "oh that guy is predicting a big storm again...usually doesn't happen as bad as he says it will" and go on their merry way. You lose credibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Not only that, if you bust high a majority of the time, then the idea of "warning the public" is a moot point because nobody is going top believe your "warnings". They will just think "oh that guy is predicting a big storm again...usually doesn't happen as bad as he says it will" and go on their merry way. Case in point, Irene then Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 a few of the higher res models get a bit of OES going tomorrow AM and keep it around through the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Seems like a very good call. And by that time I think we've picked up at least 6 inches. Maybe a bit more That's the thinking. Curious how long we ping for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Check my edit. With the location/position of the high, winds will be almost due E as the system is S of LI. Winds won't turn NE until the low is E of CC. hmmm , it's close http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/4kmwrf/index.php 10m winds are ENE with low tuck'd just S of E long island (1am) , then S of eastern Long island (4am) 10 mwinds are NE I wish the High was centered due N or NNE of us and not "banana'd" well ESE into N atlantic.....good thing this is progressive or it would torch after a while IMO for E mass. then 1 am time frame honestly scares the daylights out of me BL temp wise if I am East of a Boxboro-N Reading-Lexington line. But lets see like phil says what type of air mass is advecting in on those Ene/E winds and how long those 950 temps can stay cool. heavy heavy OMEGA needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 SREF Plumes http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 honestly, while i'm 99.9% sure it rains here...the actual snowfall forecast and impact along the immediate shore might be the hardest. i can seriously talk myself into and out of multiple scenarios. lol. further inland, it's snow...then just a matter of how quickly you mix etc. but i could agree with BOS forecasts for 3", 6", 9"...and even really down to the Canal and the Upper Cape i think. there's a massive bust potential. lose / lose. You got it. I'm assuming the warmer models are going to be more right mainly because of climo and what may still be a That said the bust potential is huge. I feel 1-3 here is the safe bet but GFS/NAM/EURO probably argue for more already (some are clearly much more). Anyway new NAM is pulling the forest gump...box of chocolates. Looks a lot different at 500mb IMO already at 12 hours. Someone else jackpots this run! Like you I see east winds being the glitch potentially if modeled right. I can't imagine it being more than a few hours before it torches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 That's the thinking. Curious how long we ping for. Yeah, I love sleet I think it's pretty cool. It accumulates well also. Do you think we even go to straight rain? I think if we do it's going to be incredibly brief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Yeah, I love sleet I think it's pretty cool. It accumulates well also. Do you think we even go to straight rain? I think if we do it's going to be incredibly brief I don't see how we avoid some rain right now. If I had tu put a number on rain, I'd say TAN gets. 1/3-1/2" of rain on top of 4-6" of snow and a bit of sleet. 1-1.25" liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Yeah, I love sleet I think it's pretty cool. It accumulates well also. Do you think we even go to straight rain? I think if we do it's going to be incredibly brief Sleet does not accumulate well...but adds a nice protective layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 my question to scott or phil would be are models usually too slow or fast wrt 950 temps warming on ENE flow in mid December with a cold airmass in place like we have...I mean I guess it depends on the orientation of the HIGH and it's movement...I suppose there aren't many great analogs ..I mean it seems that with that direction flow the CF would set up pretty far west near 495 and damn near MOST could change over 128 up thru Essex county if the models are too slow in bringing a more maritime 950 temp in on E/ENE winds. Those water temps are not cold. I'm a snow weenie thru and thru but I'm having a hard time seeing this not flipping, but I don't have a ton of memory to go off with a cold arctic high banana'ing from great lakes E to quebec then to The ESE into n atlatnic at height of storm. Thankfully it's progressive... I think at some latitude the CF will just stick barely in from the immediate coast and I think the main beneficiary of this will be N Essex county...perhaps lol what the f do I know I could see Danvers getting a foot while I get 6 inches 7 miles SSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Updated GYX map ... should make matt lacroix happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Updated GYX map ... should make matt lacroix happy StormTotalSnowFcst.png Yep I agree - my thought is 10-14 into Hillsborough country... I don't agree with BOX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Well SREFs are a bit cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Updated GYX map ... should make matt lacroix happy StormTotalSnowFcst.png nice, I'll take 10-14" anytime, will be interesting to see if the weenie totals near the coast pan out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Naammmm....nam is strange...whooah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Naammmm....nam is strange...whooah Elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 much weaker maybe.. no consolidated low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Was Jerry right with Euro starting accumulating snow early tomorrow morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 much weaker maybe.. no consolidated low? 2mb weaker thru 39h vs 12 run. Looks like it may tick a bit warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 14-18" from GYX in their southern zones which seems absurd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 looks the same as most other guidance...nothing out of the ordinary imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 weaker but still a nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Non-hydrostatic model...how I love thee. Another run, another solution. Congrats Scooter on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Updated GYX map ... should make matt lacroix happy StormTotalSnowFcst.png Probably Chris did it just for him so he can feel better about his 10"................lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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