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December 14/15 winter storm threat part II


Typhoon Tip

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Thanks.

 

So I saw the map that shows the two points.  If you are to the right side of the line how would that vary to being on the left?

It's a 2D map. Think of the image as being a wall that is sitting right along that "line". You're not seeing what's left of the line or right of the line.

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Say what you will about the model, but this is a situation where I would love to see the GFS have data every 3 hours. It shows the potential for really healthy banded precip in the WAA, but it is around Long Island at 06z and over CON to PWM by 12z. Basically it is intimating that SNE peaks around 09z.

 

You can still get the idea from the cross section here (running from E of LI to near LEB), but the mid levels are starting to dry out already by 12z.

 

On the left side, frontogenesis on the bottom panel is going to be strong and there is a nice layer of -EPV above it (good for banding).

 

The top right is RH with ageostrophic streamlines overlaid on it. As a result of that frontogenesis you'll get a nice thermally direct circulation that forms, leading to the strong lift on the warm side of the mid level front.

 

Bottom right is off on the color curve (air mass changes the color scale but the colors don't follow it, damn computers) but you can infer the numbers showing strong lift (15+ ubar/s) through the snow growth zone around 09z if you back up the lift near EEN to the S (right of the panel).

attachicon.gifGFS_fgen_xsct.jpg

Great graphics Mike!

 

Our 39hr GFS maps...MPV to BID (I think like you had)

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

These two graphic presentations tell a story unto themselves.

 

I'm trying to get  McIdas-V to work on my computer, to no avail. It's so frustrating getting the computers configured. One running Win XP and the Unix Scientific Linux. I had everything tweaked perfect. WTF.... now I can't even get Bufkit to work. Pounding head on table...

 

 

Snowstorm appears to be right on schedule I see. Details refined to a couple of inches and a mile or two. LOL  Should be fun.     

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Great graphics Mike!

 

These two graphic presentations tell a story unto themselves.

 

I'm trying to get  McIdas-V to work on my computer, to no avail. It's so frustrating getting the computers configured. One running Win XP and the Unix Scientific Linux. I had everything tweaked perfect. WTF.... now I can't even get Bufkit to work. Pounding head on table...

 

 

Snowstorm appears to be right on schedule I see. Details refined to a couple of inches and a mile or two. LOL  Should be fun.     

 

Don't be giving Ekster credit when he's probably doing naked snow angels in his backyard in preparation for tomorrow night. I'm Chris, he's hitting refresh on the SREFs.

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