jonjon Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I hope this verifies: 12"-17" seems like an unusual range for the bullseye. How about 12-18"? I guess you can do whatever you want when you make a map, I just thought that was odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The 12Z through 18Z model runs don't suggest that anyone should give up hope on 4-6" for DC. 0Z will give more data, but again, up through now, 4-6" is still a pretty responsible forecast for downtown. 4 to 6 is still a safe bet but it bears watching now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 storm is starting to get busy http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp_big.html The upper level low which is our storm to be, the 50/50 low, the block, and the sub-tropical moisture feed are all in place. Let the magic happen. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 The 12Z through 18Z model runs don't suggest that anyone should give up hope on 4-6" for DC. 0Z will give more data, but again, up through now, 4-6" is still a pretty responsible forecast for downtown. I agree here. I just had an hour drive home to think things through. Even if it doesn't fall the way we want (door to door snow of course), relatively slow speed and high intensity will compensate. We all got a reality slap with the gfs soundings. However,the envelope as a whole looks pretty good. I would be pretty surprised if someone through the cities and 95-west reports heavy rain for an extended period. There is no reason to question that the height of the storm being mostly if not all snow for most. It's a slow pivot out of here too. I think u and I are poised for 6-8 with bust potential probably higher than lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Snow dendriteology 101... Come on man. Lol Ok. I just don't always know sometimes on these forums if people actually think these things! In any case, best of luck to all you guys down there, except for DT of course, who I hope gets a half inch of slop and 3 inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Lol Ok. I just don't always know sometimes on these forums if people actually think these things! In any case, best of luck to all you guys down there, except for DT of course, who I hope gets a half inch of slop and 3 inches of rain. You must not follow my stunning analysis posts or you would have known i was joking. I'm sad now. Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPDATED... WE`VE SPENT OUR TIME BTWN 4:00 AND 6:30 PM TRYING TO FINE TUNE SOME OF THE SNOW GRIDS. I HV SOME CONCERNS ABT THE TIME PERIOD OF 6-12Z WED MRNG. TO BEGIN - THE STARTING TEMP: MDLS ARE GIVING HIGH TEMPS ON TUE OF M40S. SUSPECT IT`S GOING TO REQUIRE SNOW TO FALL FOR SVRL HRS BEFORE ACCUMS REALLY GET GOING. I HV CUT BACK THE SNOW TOTAL GRIDS E OF THE MTNS IN THAT WED 6-12Z TIMEFRAME. I`M ALSO CONCERNED ABT THE TEMP OF THE AIR COLUMN...ESPECIALLY IN THE DC/BALT AND E CORRIDOR. THRU 12Z WED WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE PCPN IN THE I-95 OSCILATING BTWN RA AND SN - LARGE FLAKES THAT SPLATTER ON CONTACT. IN ADTN THE ATLC WATER TEMP OFF THE DELMARVA IS IN THE L40S. THERE IS ALSO NOT A DECENT SOURCE OF CD AIR - ON THIS AFTN`S SFC ANLYS YOU HV TO GO TO NW QUEBEC TO FIND SUB 20 TEMPS. SO IN ALL FEEL IF ANYTHING OUR SNOW TOTALS THRU 12Z WED MAY HV BEEN A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...SO TWEAKED DOWN. FEEL THAT THE 18-00Z WED AND 00-06Z THU PDS MAY BE THE TIMES WHEN SNOW DOES ACCUMULATE IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR. BY REG WE ONLY RUN THE SNOW TOTAL MAP THRU 00Z THU...SO TOTALS MAY END UP BEING MORE... ESPECIALLY IN THE E. WE WL MOST LKLY BE ISSUING A WIN STORM WRNG FOR THE WRN PART OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT LV THE ERN PART OF THE AREA IN A WTCH. I'm glad that they are accounting for their time spent on their thought process (4:00-6:30). I wonder if that included dinner and bathroom breaks. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 12"-17" seems like an unusual range for the bullseye. How about 12-18"? I guess you can do whatever you want when you make a map, I just thought that was odd. I'm pretty sure the higher elevations in VA will get 30+ just like the high res nam is showing. The numbers from March 1962 would also support 30+ amounts above 2000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If the soundings from the GFS during Sandy would have been correct we would have received a lot of rain out here. NAM nailed it and we got all snow. I have a feeling its going to be more snow for you borderline-folks than you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I agree here. I just had an hour drive home to think things through. Even if it doesn't fall the way we want (door to door snow of course), relatively slow speed and high intensity will compensate. We all got a reality slap with the gfs soundings. However,the envelope as a whole looks pretty good. I would be pretty surprised if someone through the cities and 95-west reports heavy rain for an extended period. There is no reason to question that the height of the storm being mostly if not all snow for most. It's a slow pivot out of here too. I think u and I are poised for 6-8 with bust potential probably higher than lower. We all are nervous right now-- I am plenty. But, just look at the QPF printed out by all the models-- 1.1" on the low end for us to >2" on the high end. I mean, this would have to be a 1/98 or 2/98 deal for there to not be significant accumulations around here. With those two storms, we knew with plenty of notice that rain was going to be the predominant precip type (WSWatch went up for one of them, but never switched to warning). I know we often fail in marginal situations-- but completely fail in a marginal situation with >1" of precip that is shown by every single model 36 hours ahead of onset to deliver at least appreciable accumulating snow? No jumping yet... As everyone else said, I hate the wait between 18Z GFS (when all sorts of doom scenarios can pop up) and the 0Z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think u and I are poised for 6-8 with bust potential probably higher than lower. Right now I think something would have to significantly change to go with widespread <6" for the northern DC burbs. Spotty 4-5" reports in MontCo and HoCo? Maybe...but I think most people 6"+ for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Lol Ok. I just don't always know sometimes on these forums if people actually think these things! In any case, best of luck to all you guys down there, except for DT of course, who I hope gets a half inch of slop and 3 inches of rain. Huh? It's not a matter of debate. The extra hour of DST sun comes later in the day, when the sun is hotter and the air is warmer. This offsets any diabetes process cooling that the other guy mentioned with extra darkness in the morning. Since the darkness is later in the morning, it's warmer darkness. This effect is even more intense in PA, given your extra lattitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think this about sums up what DT is doing to his followers who disagree with him on Facebook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This is a weenism from this winter: we have trended colder rather than warmer wrt events. We just did not have any precip to make it happen. Just call me the farmer's almanac. I respect dtk's remark regarding data, but all we have now is to watch it all play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 2/11/06, 3/1/09/, 1/26/11.....this is what happens...we get suicidal and then we get pummeled...at midnight on March 2nd 2009 I had a dusting and it had been snowing steady for 6-7 hours...then around 2 or 3 am...crushed uhmmm, we ain't New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If the soundings from the GFS during Sandy would have been correct we would have received a lot of rain out here. NAM nailed it and we got all snow. I have a feeling its going to be more snow for you borderline-folks than you think. Agree 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This is a weenism from this winter: we have trended colder rather than warmer wrt events. We just did not have any precip to make it happen. Just call me the farmer's almanac. I respect dtk's remark regarding data, but all we have now is to watch it all play out. This too. Anybody remember about two weeks ago on a Friday when parts of the DC-BALT area got accum snow when it was about 50 that afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Right now I think something would have to significantly change to go with widespread <6" for the northern DC burbs. Spotty 4-5" reports in MontCo and HoCo? Maybe...but I think most people 6"+ for our area. Solid. We would need to whiff on the deform band to go way low. I have yet to even consider that option. Scrape to the north and its colder. Scraping to the south of it isn't even on the cras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm not worried till warm bl gfs gains consensus and consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What's the consensus with those clowns? That we are too bullish? No, they are DT groupies who are buying into the south solution Euro all the way. Although it looks like DT has changed his thoughts with his first call to more of a Euro/GFS blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Right now I think something would have to significantly change to go with widespread <6" for the northern DC burbs. Spotty 4-5" reports in MontCo and HoCo? Maybe...but I think most people 6"+ for our area. I'd take 6" of snow in a heartbeat right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 the GFS initializes at 10:30....unless you are 80 years old or you have to be at work at 3am and you operate heavy machinery, you should stay up Or if you have a 2 month old and you get sleep whenever you can I have a 16 month old and she certainly helped me stay up for the Euro the past two nights. I plan on sleeping through tonight's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 the next 4 hours are the most important of my life....more than wedding..kids etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 the next 4 hours are the most important of my life....more than wedding..kids etc I'd love the detailed list on what the "etc" includes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 the next 4 hours are the most important of my life....more than wedding..kids etc You always make me laugh. This was amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If the soundings from the GFS during Sandy would have been correct we would have received a lot of rain out here. NAM nailed it and we got all snow. I have a feeling its going to be more snow for you borderline-folks than you think. I'm in the I think it's going to be more snow than rain camp. I'm going by pure instincts and understand there isn't a ton of cold air around but look at the storm a few weeks ago. Dynamics won over and it snowed for a little while in central moco. Last few days have been brisk and its brisk outside right now as well. Just my one cent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Huh? It's not a matter of debate. The extra hour of DST sun comes later in the day, when the sun is hotter and the air is warmer. This offsets any diabetes process cooling that the other guy mentioned with extra darkness in the morning. Since the darkness is later in the morning, it's warmer darkness. This effect is even more intense in PA, given your extra lattitude. Wow, amazing that people actually believe that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 <weenie> On the Feb 13 storm last month, I started out as rain, then some graupel... temps were pretty warm at the surface during the start (38-40), but temps quickly dropped as the heavier precip fell into the atmosphere. Eventually changed over to all snow and even had some accumulation. What makes that storm different than this one, wrt, dynamic cooling? Can the same thing happen with this? Or was it because the Feb 13th storm had a much drier airmass in place prior to the storm? </weenie> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 000 WWUS41 KLWX 050148 WSWLWX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 848 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013 VAZ025>027-029-503-504-WVZ055-501-502-505-506-051000- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0004.130305T1700Z-130307T0500Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0005.130305T2300Z-130307T0500Z/ AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-PAGE-WESTERN HIGHLAND- EASTERN HIGHLAND-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT- WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG... HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY...MOOREFIELD...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM... PETERSBURG...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN 848 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE INCREASING CERTAINTY OF HEAVY SNOW...THE WARNING HAS NOW REPLACED THE WINTER STORM WATCH THAT HAD BEEN IN EFFECT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ABOVE 3000 FEET. * TIMING...RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ON WEDNESDAY. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. * IMPACTS...HEAVY WET SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES WITH DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IF YOU NEED TO TRAVEL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TAKE PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. ENSURE YOU HAVE AN EMERGENCY KIT IN YOUR TRUNK. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I bet I will get my post reporting privileges taken away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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