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  2. The Dude
    Agreed. Fantastic AFD. The team at LWX is top notch.
  3. Maestrobjwa
    And Christmas 1965: 69hi Notice what happened later in the winter after the three Christmases we hit 69 or 70...lol Big blizzard! So maybe that'll be the tell this year...69-70 or above on Christmas day--we snow later 60 or below? No go...while I don't like warm Christmases I will happily take one in exchange!
  4. ValpoVike
    Are you here on vacation? I live just outside of Estes Park, and Trail Ridge Road is really special. For an added experience, you can go up a one way road (Old Fall River Road) that exits at the Alpine Visitor Center at the top. You then take TRR back down. I have seen snow falling at the top in both July and August many times. Not much but enough to remind you just how high up you are.
  5. Brian5671
    same ol pattern. Hoping it misses here...we are waterlogged
  6. Chadzachadam
    another case where strong storms are possible in the evening but we get some rain early in the day. wonder if we fail the same way as we have earlier this summer, with too much going on and not enough instability left by the time the storms are expected
  7. Maggie Valley Steve
    Looks like an early taste of Fall will arrive this weekend extending into early next. My point and click forecast is showing low to mid 50's for morning lows!
  8. Jackstraw
    Lets see how the models do over the next 10 days precip wise. The mean average for MBY last Sunday was .5 inches, I received over 2in within 72 hours. To be honest, the Canuk and Baby Canuk did the best with last week and this week in the medium to long range. It has me around 1.5in thru 10 days while the others just a spittle. If it keeps up I'm riding it into March in mby lol
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Given the tornado risk east of I-95, this is justified. I could see a tornado watch going up east of here.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it's also possible to get too extreme in the other direction as far CC goes, and this isn't a slight at John..as I discussed last spring, I was actually guilty of that last winter and tarnished what was an otherwise absolutely exemplary seasonal effort. It's crucial to find and maintain that balance between the synthesis of lessons learned to inform future efforts, while also appreciating that each individual season as important differences. I'm still trying to find my proverbial footing in that regard.
  11. KakashiHatake2000
    Spc has day 1 outlook a marginal risk out for south of i40 for west middle and east tn also for the majorityish of the Deep South for 5 percent hail in southwest tn nw Alabama north Mississippi and also 5 percent wind https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html .
  12. Frankpc
    No precipitation that was measurable this week. Still at 1" MTD for August. Drought remains at D1
  13. BlizzardNole
    I was surprised yesterday evening when my P&C forecast had 1-2 inches for tonight! Now it's a more typical quarter to half inch. Sun is coming out and it's a muggy 83/76. Hoping for a flush hit later but won't be surprised if it's NE Maryland pummeled again
  14. Mikeymac5306
    Unless the sun comes out and bakes this afternoon I don't see it.
  15. olafminesaw
    If you are feeling you have gotten unlucky in over the last few weeks with daily storms missing your location, just know that the footprint of these storms has been relatively small and most areas have been drier than normal across the area with a few lucky winners
  16. MANDA
    WPC discussion heavy rainfall potential: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
  17. weathermedic
    From OKX AFD: While still low confidence, given high shear and little instability, severe thunderstorms for northeast NJ, NYC and western Long Island can not be completely ruled out. This would be mainly an isolated damaging wind gust threat, but given decent low level curvature in model soundings an isolated tornado is also possible.
  18. LakePaste25
    It already feels like we’re heading that direction on a very small scale. The weak La Nina’s we had the last 2 years have exhibited extended Modoki-like patterns at least prior to February.
  19. neverSnowsLCSC
    Yep, been in the high 90s and low 100s and unlike our usual 100s, it actually features higher dew points than usual. I've seen low to mid 80s on a lot of the local weather stations. 120+ heat indices. Insane. It's ungodly hot.
  20. CHItoMKE916
    Shhh then everyone will know the secret that lakeside = best climo even with early summer pneumonia fronts
  21. yoda
    LWX will do an 18z SPEC sounding per SPC request - in updated morning AFD
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think you need to look beyond the CC aspect, too, though....most guidance will be too cold...got it. But if it's right with the orientation of those heights into our area, then we'd have some chances....I get the exaggerated SE CONUS trough, etc....but that isn't entirely prohibitive, TBH, it could even be beneficial for us relative the mid atl as long as the gradient doesn't get overly steep. The STJ with these things can sometimes get buried.
  23. JenkinsJinkies
    Yet our 70+ days in January are mostly in niñas.
  24. nw baltimore wx
    Sod is immediate satisfaction, but if the rest of the yard needs work, and you’re already committed to aerating and seeding the existing lawn, I’d go the seed route. Totally bare areas that have been covered tend to respond well to seeding.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Congrats to my great, great, great, great, great grandkids on perpetual El Nino.
  26. Damage In Tolland
    I think there’s some confusion from a few. No one was saying no rain because of wagons south. This has always looked like scattered showers to the Pike area. But the heavy rains have always been wagons south . Like S coast to NYC south
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