Novtorcher Disco Thread

[dendrite]

Min 35.9° but most of the night was near 40°

[HIPPYVALLEY]

11 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think I started posting about a no frost/ freeze thru Tgiving here back in early September 

Wild, I’ve had probably 10 mornings in the 20’s. 

[MJO812]

Sad day

[WinterWolf]

The real concern is, Hopefully the stuff replacing them are better. 

[Typhoon Tip]

14 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I don’t like hyperbole early on, but I think I would be fairly shocked if the mountains get near normal snowfall this winter on composite super Nino years.

Thats not to say it won’t snow, heck 235” on Mansfield is below normal.  But it feels like the deck is stacked a bit, especially if it’s a slow start.

It takes making up some good ground to catch up for struggles in even Nov/Dec when you need to hit bigger monthly normal totals in Jan/Feb/Mar.

Now, for NNE as a whole?  The lower climo snowfall areas near population centers can rely more on several good synoptic events to get closer to normal.  I think my fear up here is the daily light events struggle if it’s warm, and the 2-6” type stuff that adds up over time creates a good-sized deficit.

Don't disagree here ...  

But I'd just add,  there only needs to be a spark to detonate an entire field of natural gas. Believe me, this year in particular, perhaps above all others, there is an ocean of gas. 

...it's proven to be a part of the bounty that CC provides, anyway.. but now this on top.  

Forget snow or rain ... anything that happens could end up synergistically out of control production.

Granted, we have to be cold enough if the discussion is snow-related...  yes, there is a non-zero possibility that it is never cold enough, at least down here. I doubt it... but is so.  I would never bank on that in alpine setting, either way ... maybe in 10 or 20 years of brick dipshits denialism succeeding in pushing the extinction event to the brink... But at this time, no.  Otherwise, we may as well send up palm frowns to Caribou ME already.

Short version, the same clipper in 1987, could product 33" these days, the specific physical mechanism is that CC and now this El Nino, pointing it's cosmic-scale hot anus at us... are ceiling the amount of water vapor can physically be in Earth's atmosphere.  If cold is sniffable, it could snow that much by accident - whether it's 70 F a week later or not.

[kdxken]

Splitting wood with crickets chirping, no shirt , before 10:00 a.m. on November 2nd. Wasn't on my bingo card.

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Splitting wood with crickets chirping, no shirt , before 10:00 a.m. on November 2nd. Wasn't on my bingo card.

It happens. Enjoy it. 

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Splitting wood with crickets chirping, no shirt , before 10:00 a.m. 

Sir, this is a weather forum…not grindr

[dendrite]

65.5° and not even noon yet. 

[kdxken]

May I have another.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Yeah this work week is a torch.  Might as well get out and enjoy it. 

[Torch Tiger]

How about that 2/1877...folks would be livid if the first 22 days of a wintr month were Steined

[Go Kart Mozart]

AIGFS gets stormy (wet) mid-month, but no agreement from EuroAI.

[Go Kart Mozart]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Sad day

What next, retire the NGM?

[Damage In Tolland]

Straight on thru to the other side?

 

[MJOatleast7]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

How about that 2/1877...folks would be livid if the first 22 days of a wintr month were Steined

Traffic jams on the Tobin

[WxWatcher007]

Interesting. I didn’t know about this one. 

[weathafella]

For me to conjure pre winter, I need dark and dank.  It’s anything but today!

[OrangeCTWX]

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Sad day

Yuck. I’ll miss the 3k

[dendrite]

What a day

[dryslot]

RIP Nam.

[ma blizzard]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Interesting. I didn’t know about this one. 

interesting to see such prolific totals on the east side of the track .. seems like it was tropical remnants interacting with a front? would be curious to learn more 

[Great Snow 1717]

I give it another month before the meltdowns commence...

[vortex95]

On 11/1/2026 at 5:50 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve seen that guy on there. He’s on Twitter as well. So many people don’t understand what happens here with Canada so torched . 

And yet there are ppl who swear by him and he has them eating of his hands!  UGH.

[vortex95]

On 11/1/2026 at 7:08 AM, CoastalWx said:

Cocked 

@CoastalWxmay need to be "cocked" a lot this winter to forget the torch and lack of snow!  Pass the Mad Dog 2020!

[Lava Rock]

70.3F for the high. As nice as it has been, it's getting a little old. Need more fall-like seasonal temps to set the mood. Some rain would be appreciated too. 2.37" since Oct 1. 

[vortex95]

On 11/1/2026 at 7:20 AM, WinterWolf said:

Thanks for keeping it real.  Lots of bad and erroneous info being pushed…sensationalism at its worst. 

Thanks.  Yes, something one needs to take a step back and look at things in a balance and objective way.  Like "are things really that atypical or abnormal in the context of what is happening in a given pattern/oscillation?"  It like when we get an epic E Coast winter, how is that unusual really?  It has happened before, so in itself, that it normal climo.  Sure, frequency in winters go up and down over longer periods, but again, that's normal!

And sometimes, it is absolutely NUTZ!  I always say, "when it's good, it sometimes can be REAL good!" and not act linear in terms of how wild it can get.  Like the 6 week period in Jan-Feb 2015.  Quite localized, but where it was good, it was the best ever for snow weenies!

The best example I like to use is April 2011.  Yes, we first think about the superoutbreak at the end of the month, and that was epic, but there were over 500 other tors that month outside that event for the tor record for *any* month by far w/ 757 for the CONUS! 
 

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Interesting. I didn’t know about this one. 

Until Irene, this was the one to beat them all.  Lots of bridges with 1928 build dates.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Interesting. I didn’t know about this one. 

The Great Vermont Flood of 1927, November 3-4

[vortex95]

On 11/1/2026 at 7:25 AM, CoastalWx said:

This is abnormal. When nothing else compares, I’d say it’s abnormal.

Huh?  There have been 4 very strong El Nino prior to this one since 1950.  And everything going on so far this cool season has lined up well w/ what to expect.  Just b/c the pattern in the NEUS is "boring" and warm?  @CoastalWxneeds to set aside his personal predilections about what HE wants for wx!   Do I have to bring up the singles/doubles and home run analogy again?

And one can slice and dice down super local and find things that have not happened before given the sheer amounts of wx parameters to use and climate locations out there.  That's micromanaging to find content to hype.  What matters is the large-scale mean.