Nomz Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago Recon found 990 extrapolated; I would guess 995 or so on the drop, based on the last two passes. EDIT: Drop was was 996 @ 23 kt = 994mb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Araz07 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Large tower just went up over Isaias' center 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Popping towers but definitely looks like its ingested some dry air over the past couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026 ...ISAIAS QUICKLY INTENSIFYING, FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 92.9W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Yankeetown A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bay St. Louis to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish line to west of Bay St. Louis * East of Indian Pass to Aucilla River Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026 Satellite and aircraft data show that Isaias continues to strengthen. GOES-19 imagery indicates that a central dense overcast has formed, and the system has become more symmetric than this morning. The peak NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft 700-mb winds were 61 kt, with the pressure dropping to 994 mb. The initial intensity is set to 55 kt as a reflection of this data. Isaias is basically on track, moving east-northeast at 7 kt. There is no change to the synoptic reasoning as a deepening trough along the northwestern Gulf Coast and a strengthening Atlantic subtropical ridge should cause the system to move faster to the northeast tomorrow and northward on Friday. As long as the cyclone remains intact, it makes physical sense that the system will move on the faster and eastward side of the guidance due to the stronger shear Isaias should encounter near landfall. Thus, the new forecast is adjusted slightly to the east, closer to the AI-based and corrected-consensus models. NOAA radar data (P3-TDR) show that the system is experiencing some southwesterly shear, with tilt analyses displaying the mid-level circulation displaced 5-10 n mi to the northeast of the low-level center. This structure seems sufficient for further intensification given a continuation of similar low or moderate shear and very warm SSTs in a very humid environment. Models are fairly consistent about the shear increasing on Friday, but almost all guidance still shows a category 1 or 2 hurricane at landfall. While the regional hurricane models have generally come down on the peak intensity this cycle, it is unknown whether this is the start of a real trend, and we would prefer to see more than one guidance cycle before making any adjustments. The new forecast is close to the previous one, near the high side of the model suite. Key Messages: 1. Isaias is expected to strengthen and be a strong hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the northern Gulf Coast, and a Storm Surge Watch is in effect from The Mouth of the Mississippi River to Yankeetown, Florida. Residents in the watch area should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so. 2. The risk of damaging hurricane-force winds is increasing over portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and southern Mississippi. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida. Residents in these areas should prepare for the possibility of long-duration power outages. 3. Isaias will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S. Gulf Coast and much of the Southeast Friday into the weekend. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river flooding, will be possible. 4. Isaias could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to the western portion of the Yucatan Peninsula through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 22.7N 92.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 23.1N 91.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 24.1N 90.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 25.8N 88.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 28.1N 87.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 31.0N 87.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 72H 10/1800Z 34.0N 87.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 11/1800Z 37.5N 84.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 11 hours ago Author Share Posted 11 hours ago Great tweet from Andy 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaPilot Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago Not the best looking symmetry there. Appears it may have a very small window for intensification, then it's going to struggle. OHC can only do so much. I'd say major status will be difficult at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 47 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Great tweet from Andy Yeah recon just found 988, so still fairly decent intensification which is quite impressive given how sheared it looks Also a nice little core evident on microwave: 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 10 hours ago Author Share Posted 10 hours ago 33 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Yeah recon just found 988, so still fairly decent intensification which is quite impressive given how sheared it looks Also a nice little core evident on microwave: Cyan ring there. That’s significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago Cyan ring there. That’s significant.I think he takes off tonight. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 9 hours ago Author Share Posted 9 hours ago On the cusp at 11pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 9 hours ago Author Share Posted 9 hours ago 982mb dropsonde 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shenanagins1091 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Great sunset in Gulf Shores AL tonight 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Hurricane warnings hoisted for extreme W FL, AL, E MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 1 hour ago, DeltaPilot said: Not the best looking symmetry there. Appears it may have a very small window for intensification, then it's going to struggle. OHC can only do so much. I'd say major status will be difficult at this point. Yea, I have it falling just short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 1030 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026 ...ISAIAS BECOMES A HURRICANE... Dropsonde data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicates that Isaias has become a hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. The minimum central pressure measured from another dropsonde launched in the eye was 982 mb (29.00 inches). SUMMARY OF 1030 PM CDT...0330 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 91.9W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM NW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 8 hours ago Author Share Posted 8 hours ago Was just coming to post about the dropsondes. Let's see what the next pass looks like but that was a substantial drop in pressure between center fixes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 7 hours ago Author Share Posted 7 hours ago Waiting on one more center pass before going to bed... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 7 hours ago Author Share Posted 7 hours ago 980.3mb extrapolated. Pressure falls continue. As the deep convection continues over the center we are probably on the cusp of significant intensification, even as you see some more hostile conditions on the western edge of the system. It's a race between this current intensification trend and when the conditions ultimately disrupt the center. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Isaias is already a bit lopsided to the east, but the center is secluded enough from both shear and dry air to continue to intensify. Maybe a small eye pops briefly, honestly the analog may be Sandy before Cuba landfall (at least in regards to a potent late season core surrounded by synoptic fuel). Isaias will be getting ripped apart upon landfall, but it will gain significant strength before doing that. Also the jet streak equatorward entrance region is going to fuel baroclinicty over the SE US. Not to be slept on, the tornado threat on the right side is going to be significant. Isaias will have a ton of energy to be conserved as it gets absorbed by the trough as landfall occurs, this will be an impactful event 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Winds catching up to the pressure falls. Wouldn’t surprise me if recon found a cat 2 this morning. RI since yesterday morning in spite of shear. 40 mph increase since this time yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 45 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Winds catching up to the pressure falls. Wouldn’t surprise me if recon found a cat 2 this morning. RI since yesterday morning in spite of shear. 40 mph increase since this time yesterday. It’s ridiculous how almost every storm in the gulf seems to rapidly intensify now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 13 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: It’s ridiculous how almost every storm in the gulf seems to rapidly intensify now. When you have jet fuel water temps unaffected by any other tropical system this year-yep that’s what happens. Luckily conditions should become significantly more hostile as it comes in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 53 minutes ago Share Posted 53 minutes ago HAFS A and B are predicting a decapitation at landfall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 35 minutes ago Share Posted 35 minutes ago Still a little disorganized on IR. Although, it seems to be fighting off shear a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted 34 minutes ago Share Posted 34 minutes ago I see the Eastward motion help counteract the shear but as soon as it turn north, that is when you will start to see it get ripped apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted 27 minutes ago Share Posted 27 minutes ago 24 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: HAFS A and B are predicting a decapitation at landfall Hah, impressive guillotine. The core will not be that well put together on approach, it also won’t be totally gone by landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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