October 2026 general discussion

[HoarfrostHubb]

It just hits different in the mountains.  I have plenty of color in my own yard.  
 

that being said, some parts of S VT are definitely past peak and it’s almost stick season in areas.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

This morning.   

[ForestHillWx]

11 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

To get out of Jersey????

Can confirm as a Jersey guy.

However our town is actually splendid in fall and the local farms get loaded with city folks coming out for the “fall experience” to the point we avoid going to them, or even driving near them if possible. 

[Great Snow 1717]

15 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Can confirm as a Jersey guy.

However our town is actually splendid in fall and the local farms get loaded with city folks coming out for the “fall experience” to the point we avoid going to them, or even driving near them if possible. 

...I have no idea why people would want to travel on a long holiday weekend. .perhaps Mr Tolland can explain...

[Baroclinic Zone]

“Long holiday weekend”…?

[CoastalWx]

12 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Agreed and that’s what is great about foliage, any rolling topography covered in color is awesome.

Your area of NE CT is top tier, always loved going to the lake in the fall, the quiet corner.  Fields, hills, rock walls, barns, foliage.

It’s a terrible place 

[CoastalWx]

Yesterday I had to go down to Acushnet for  a soccer game and the foliage looked great in those remote areas of Southeast mass. Those areas from Middleborough to Acushnet may as well be eastern Tennessee as far as I’m concerned. No wonder why contentweather guy is like southeast mass’ shallow grave zone.

[CoastalWx]

15 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

That's my birthday weekend, I'm hoping. This would be a nice present

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk
 

Keep wishing 

[WinterWolf]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Keep wishing 

Ahh let him fantasize…that’s his porn. 

[WinterWolf]

The rain looks to be in here way ahead of what was thought. I was hoping it would hold off until 4-5 pm. But it looks to be here within the hour.  Quite a bit too. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Ahh let him fantasize…that’s his porn. 

*her

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[WinterWolf]

Just now, Prismshine Productions said:

*her

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk
 

lol….oh I thought ineedsnow posted that. 

[Snowedin]

Weird, our trees are just starting to change around here but just barely. Seeing these pics from far nne really puts into perspective just how much climate and ecology can vary from one area to the next. I’m sure things will rapidly change down here over the next few weeks as they usually do but as we always say, season within seasons!

[Torch Tiger]

13 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Maybe it’s just a lot of olds that have nothing else to do . I’ve just never understood it when you have the same in your general area 

old white empty-nester alternative to watching paint dry

[bristolri_wx]

Looks like a pretty good drink from the remnants of Isias...

[vortex95]

16 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Eastern area posters would retire from this hobby if that verified

Not @CoastalWx. He would be "tea-kettle" STEAMED if that happened b/c it wasn't within 5 mi of Weymouth!

GFS not by itself here.  It's a quite impressive cold trough for mid-Oct, and fits the very strong El Nino pattern well.  The only decent CONUS cold shots in such winters occur in the NEUS.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Not @CoastalWx. He would be "tea-kettle" STEAMED if that happened b/c it wasn't within 5 mi of Weymouth!

GFS not by itself here.  It's a quite impressive cold trough for mid-Oct, and fits the very strong El Nino pattern well.  The only decent CONUS cold shots in such winters occur in the NEUS.

Somebody was just saying Thursday I think, that there were no troughs, and cool weather in sight, due to the western Pac typhoons not recurving lol.  

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Somebody was just saying Thursday I think, that there were no troughs, and cool weather in sight, due to the western Pac typhoons not recurving lol.  

He seems to strikeout as often as the white sox do..lol

[vortex95]

On 10/9/2026 at 7:25 PM, Torch Tiger said:

The storm was expected to max near 110mph and weaken near landfall.  Is that changing? 

It did start its rapid weakening just before landfall.  Now the sting development offset this somewhat, but a string jet is not a tropical feature.

Posted this on the Tropical Forum.  SAR imagery is DA BOMB!  Enlightening for @CoastalWx?  He proby will go, "how can I use SAR imagery to help me better for an impending or ongoing snowstorm?!  Conventional GOES imagery SUX, I need something more!"  

-----

This SAR image clearly shows a sting jet, which is a characteristic of a PT/ET low pressure, not a TC.  Also, prior to landfall, there was no coherent, focused wind center.  It was quite elongated.  So despite the satellite appearance w/ all the deep convection, structurally one could argue it had transitioned to more PT/ET than tropical prior to landfall.  That sudden jump of pressure up 12 mb to 970 on recon when it has been holding steady 958-960 mb also indicates a rapid change structurally to away from tropical status.  That suggested a distinct cool/dry air penetration into the core (front).  Once that happens, a system is PT/ET.

Note: SAR shows sustained winds max 110 kt.  The SAR tends to have high bias.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/socd/mecb/sar/sarwinds_tropical.php?year=2026&storm=AL092026_ISAIAS

I have always said when a system is transitioning like this, there should be a ramp down to subtropical status before PT/ET status.  Why not?   If a system can go from ET to ST to tropical, there is absolutely no reason to think it can not work the other way.  This is what should have been done for Sandy for its landfall.  A TC rarely goes instant PT/ET in just 6 hr.  It is *process* that takes time.

And I don't want to hear about the messaging issue.  ST storms get names just like tropical storms, and the watches and warnings are the same ST or tropical.  In fact, a few years ago, JTWC started assigning operationally ST status as systems transitioned from TC.

[WxWatcher007]

First flakes across New England next weekend? Kiss of death for winter?  

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Somebody was just saying Thursday I think, that there were no troughs, and cool weather in sight, due to the western Pac typhoons not recurving lol.  

They said mild PAC flow which is what it is . It’s one brief cool shot in and out . A brief of cool in a sea of warm. It’s not a deep cold long trough which is what was said . Look at the country 

[WinterWolf]

28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They said mild PAC flow which is what it is . It’s one brief cool shot in and out . A brief of cool in a sea of warm. It’s not a deep cold long trough which is what was said . Look at the country 

Well that’s what we get in October anyway…it’s mid October not mid December.  A trough in the east is not pacific/zonal flow. And Vortex95 said just the opposite. 

[WinterWolf]

51 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

First flakes across New England next weekend? Kiss of death for winter?  

Lol….ya that’s only if it’s accumulating snow…flakes in the air doesn’t count. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

The rain seems to be mixing with and changing to leaves.

[Damage In Tolland]

48 and pounding rain . Brutal . Colder today than most of the winter rainstorms coming 

[tamarack]

Lol….ya that’s only if it’s accumulating snow…flakes in the air doesn’t count. 

Estcourt Station

Detailed Forecast

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. Southwest wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.

Columbus Day

Rain, mainly before 2pm. Temperature rising to near 49 by 9am, then falling to around 41 during the remainder of the day. West wind 8 to 10 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Monday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Northeast wind 5 to 9 mph.

Tuesday

A chance of snow between 9am and 1pm, then rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Southeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Tuesday Night

Rain and snow, becoming all rain after 3am. Low around 32. Southeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Wednesday

A chance of showers, mainly before 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. East wind 5 to 7 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Wednesday Night

A slight chance of rain after 3am, mixing with snow after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Northwest wind 6 to 8 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 43.

Thursday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 26.

Friday

A chance of rain, mainly after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Friday Night

Rain and snow. Low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Saturday

A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday Night

A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday

Partly sunny, with a high near 40.

 

[CoastalWx]

Foliage is great in the lakes region. @wx2fish says stick season is here in Pittsburg NH.

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Foliage is great in the lakes region. @wx2fish says stick season is here in Pittsburg NH.

Warmer lake water ftw

[forkyfork]

you see one orange hillside and you've seen them all

[Damage In Tolland]

Scooter will discuss CAA big wind damage potential next weekend