October Comes Early: Late September Multi-Hazard Hybrid Storm

[WxWatcher007]

1.56" total so far here @WinterWolf

Looks like the Euro nailed the big rain signal. Wouldn't be surprised if I doubled this total after tonight-Monday. 

 

[bristolri_wx]

Took a nice drive through Colt State Park. Didn’t see as much wind damage as I thought I would. 3.5” of rain based on averaging the weather stations in my area (mine is broken/offline )

[kdxken]

3. 74 " in the woodyard. Nearly three of it today. Close to 3/4 of an inch an hour rates most of the morning. This blows.

[kdxken]

33 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

In my defense (lol) that idea kind of worked out. Big rains were confined to a small area, it just happened to be over me. Look at CT. Kev doesn’t even have an inch 

Small area? A large area. Unless it's a hurricane you're not getting an entire state flooded .

[CoastalWx]

CT peeps will get theirs tonight and tomorrow morning

[WxWatcher007]

 

[Torch Tiger]

30 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Sure. But that was 76 years ago. Those clearly don't walk through the door often. A good tropical storm could bring inland winds. Outside of that, or the extreme event you mention, it probably ain't happening inland. 

I'm talking about legit 60+ mph frequent gusts, not a wintertime fropa that brings strong but sub-severe gusts. 

Yet you could lop off 20mph from 1950 and it'd still best this. Didn't CON hit 110 ? Lol

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

7”

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

CT peeps will get theirs tonight and tomorrow morning

Yup…about 1.75” here so far. We’ll see how later today through tomorrow goes. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

7”

It’s a good sized area…just say tot we’re completely out to lunch on your take Friday and early yesterday. 

[jbenedet]

-NAO developing…

I’d take the over on slower ejection northeast and more blocking from the NB high. 

Therefore take the over on rainfall totals, where the training has already set up along the coast.

[WinterWolf]

16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

1.56" total so far here @WinterWolf

Looks like the Euro nailed the big rain signal. Wouldn't be surprised if I doubled this total after tonight-Monday. 

 

Yes sir…if I double the total so far we will be between 3.5-4.0 inches…which is about where the Euro had my area pegged for. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

Yet you could lop off 20mph from 1950 and it'd still best this. Didn't CON hit 110 ? Lol

Did they? Damn  

Nobody is saying this is historic, btw. It's not even top 25 for fall nor'easters probably. It's just a solid storm breaking the monotony. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Did they? Damn  

Nobody is saying this is historic, btw. It's not even top 25 for fall nor'easters probably. It's just a solid storm breaking the monotony. 

Absolutely!  That’s the take away.  She’s a looker though…. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

This is pretty unusual for September.   Most of the big fall nor’easters are October or November.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

Blue Hill set a daily record for top wind yesterday. 58mph.     No biggie but it is what it is

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

7.21

Just keeps coming 

[WxWatcher007]

With a STJ on steroids this winter, there’s going to be an absolute nuke of a storm at some point. 

[Bryan63]

Meh'd our way to just under 7.5" so far.

Have water coming up out of the ground in the basement, damn this ancient house.

[dendrite]

19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Did they? Damn  

Nobody is saying this is historic, btw. It's not even top 25 for fall nor'easters probably. It's just a solid storm breaking the monotony. 

CON 110mph
EWR 108
HFD 100
NYC 94
BDR 88
ALB 83
HVN 77

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/78/11/1520-0493_1950_078_0204_tdson_2_0_co_2.pdf

[Snowedin]

More rain than our average snow event in January  Looking at just over 3.5” here and a few good limbs that will undoubtedly need to be tossed!

[psv88]

8 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Fallacious argument. 

The trouble w/ the "ppl are dying!" argument is that it essentially dictates that anything less than death is trivial and not worth discussing.  That is among the most vapid and intellectually lazy rebuttals around.

Can you objectively say these fatalities would not have occurred anyway if there were more reaonsble and less-hyped warnings?

Not every fatality is due to not enough warnings or alerts.  Many ppl will ignore warnings and go out/take risks despite warnings b/c they have become apathetic to the relentless hype.   Some ppl just plain resist authority/being told what to do.  And some do take warnings seriously, stay home, and a tree crashes into their home, causing a fatality.  All the warnings in the world is not going to prevent something like that from happening.

So I would avoid the high-horse, virtue signaling here and understand that more is not always better and things are not a simple 1-1 correlation when it comes to complex societal issues.
 

Que?

[WinterWolf]

22 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

7.21

Just keeps coming 

Nah…no big deal..meh! 

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

CON 110mph
EWR 108
HFD 100
NYC 94
BDR 88
ALB 83
HVN 77

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/78/11/1520-0493_1950_078_0204_tdson_2_0_co_2.pdf

Not to often when Hartford blows away(no pun intended…ok maybe a little bit)  New Haven. 

[bristolri_wx]

37 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Did they? Damn  

Nobody is saying this is historic, btw. It's not even top 25 for fall nor'easters probably. It's just a solid storm breaking the monotony. 

Didn’t the 1950 storm happen in November? Seems like an apples to oranges comparison.

Not sure if this type of record keeping exists but would like to see where this storm ranks in terms of September nor’easters. Probably hard to track that given the number or remnant tropical, subtropical, and hybrid systems there are this time of year.

I feel like most official forecasts were within reason. It’s the social media clickbait posting 90 MPH gusts on the RRFS-A that kind of leak into the “hype” narrative here…

Will be a memorable storm for many just based on rainfall.

[moneypitmike]

Back into the rain following a short enough lull to get a quick walk.

PWS in the 6.25 - 6.75 range.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

38 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

-NAO developing…

I’d take the over on slower ejection northeast and more blocking from the NB high. 

Therefore take the over on rainfall totals, where the training has already set up along the coast.

Impressive +PNA index by October 10.  Does the PNAP respond ...?   

In November I'd say we're looking at an early winter trigger with this...   Mid October?  not so sure.   

Anyway, multi-source/ heavily agreed upon +3 SD and it's showing up on the actualized ensemble means as an unusually deep and convincingly spatially involving negative anomaly N/NE of HA in the Pacific.   It's also been been growing in coherence ... probably should put this in the October thread.  

This strike me as a primitive telecon outlook/and attempt by the hemisphere to yet again ... snow in October.  

I gotta say... I saw it snow in October ..almost never in my first three decades living either in southern lower Michigan or SNE.  Since ~ 2005? at least half the Octobers, particularly in the last 15 years, have hosted either a snow or a cryo-supporting atmosphere.  Snowing in November has increased as well... though the startling nature of it is October - in no small part because it'll be snowing with still autumn foliage in the backdrops.    20 years worth ... let's see if we can add another October to the swelling sample size.     

[Torch Tiger]

8 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Didn’t the 1950 storm happen in November? Seems like an apples to oranges comparison.

Not sure if this type of record keeping exists but would like to see where this storm ranks in terms of September nor’easters. Probably hard to track that given the number or remnant tropical, subtropical, and hybrid systems there are this time of year.

I feel like most official forecasts were within reason. It’s the social media clickbait posting 90 MPH gusts on the RRFS-A that kind of leak into the “hype” narrative here…

Will be a memorable storm for many just based on rainfall.

I was just pointing out an extremely rare example of times winds can rival stronger TS's or canes.. BDR sustained 60mph in 1950 and 74mph in Gloria

[butterfish55]

Oh cool, it's pouring again. Can we double digit?

[WxWatcher007]

31 minutes ago, dendrite said:

CON 110mph
EWR 108
HFD 100
NYC 94
BDR 88
ALB 83
HVN 77

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/78/11/1520-0493_1950_078_0204_tdson_2_0_co_2.pdf