October Comes Early: Late September Multi-Hazard Hybrid Storm

[SJonesWX]

Very little wind and less than 0.1” rain.  staying safe

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Thanks definitely looks at least more subtropical on satellite. Pretty well defined center now.

Ryan covers it, but I'll just add that the little burst of convection right at the center is interesting. This is a pretty good system with a good bit of thunderstorm activity over CT today. It'd be cool go get convection that could wrap around the center but that might be asking too much. 

 

 

[DomNH]

I know this isn’t going to be that exciting inland but the mehing at 17z Saturday is kind of funny. Overnight and into tomorrow AM was always going to be the worst of it up this way. 

[kdxken]

Just now, DomNH said:

I know this isn’t going to be that exciting inland but the mehing at 17z Saturday is kind of funny. Overnight and into tomorrow AM was always going to be the worst of it up this way. 

I like a good bust as well as the next guy. But the amount of football spiking is over the top. Just beginning . The national weather service isn't backing down.

 

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

I don't even observe much of a digging trough... 

This was weakly fed really.   The heights just cored out from internal processes more so - though 'some 'thing of a trigger aided.  But it seemed to go disproportionately deeper relative to what it started out with, after the fact, giving it an allusion of some spontaneity to it.  I suggested the other day there's a transitive/non-linear forcing coming from the large scale - by definition ..that's not always exposed to convention observation techniques.  Think 'rogue wave' phenomenon as an analogy.    

Anyway, it may be too early to claim failure on coverage.  The guidance blend really has this maximizing tonight, with 988 -ish mb low approaching from the S; with 1030mb high pivoting E over top while that happens... likely lays in a pretty significant llv jet axis and given that low gets to ISP it's probably going to be pretty nasty over E CT/RI/E Mass per the course.  

[Modfan2]

Too bad this was wasn’t during winter; nice feeder band set up from E Mass into CT

[tavwtby]

42 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I'm certainly not a Met but the satellite view right now  doesn't look like a typical cold core system.  Deep convection trying to fire near the center.  Seems hybrid to me??

beautiful sight 

[weatherwiz]

16z HRRR is widespread 40-50+ knots at 950mb from eastern MA back through much of CT overnight and 55 knots towards the coast

[ineedsnow]

Just got home.. winds are ripping.. i saw a tree down that took out some wires.. templeton light and power were there @Damage In Tolland would be excited 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

16z HRRR is widespread 40-50+ knots at 950mb from eastern MA back through much of CT overnight and 55 knots towards the coast

what are the sounding/profiles like compared to the near coastal SSTs 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

16z HRRR is widespread 40-50+ knots at 950mb from eastern MA back through much of CT overnight and 55 knots towards the coast

Infrastructure gone 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Infrastructure gone 

Gotta be able to mix it down from 950mb…if we can’t then it’s nothing to exciting.  

[Hoth]

15 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Too bad this was wasn’t during winter; nice feeder band set up from E Mass into CT

The BOX radar presentation is pretty cool. In the absence of any other storm information, I would think there was a 'cane off shore just by looking at the radar.

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

what are the sounding/profiles like compared to the near coastal SSTs 

There's def a subtle inversion but one thing of note is the BL isn't fully saturated - there is enough Td - T separation that we probably could mix that down. Have to watch temp and dew point trends through the evening. Also have to watch for convection - have a few hundred J of MUCAPE which is probably helping with those isolated embedded thunderstorms in CT

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Gotta be able to mix it down from 950mb…if we can’t then it’s nothing to exciting.  

One thing to keep in mind too is as the surface pressure lowers as the storm continues to deepen and push north, 950mb isn't going to be particularly far from the surface...so much less vertical distance needed to reach and mix. Any inversion may end up being minute anyways, in fact, may not even be much of a negator. We're seeing good gusts 30-50 mph which really isn't anything different from what's just above the deck. 

[weatherwiz]

HWW for CT shoreline  

[Torch Tiger]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

HWW for CT shoreline  

Any shot at a spinner down there? 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Any shot at a spinner down there? 

There's a giant spinner south of Long Island 

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

One thing to keep in mind too is as the surface pressure lowers as the storm continues to deepen and push north, 950mb isn't going to be particularly far from the surface...so much less vertical distance needed to reach and mix. Any inversion may end up being minute anyways, in fact, may not even be much of a negator. We're seeing good gusts 30-50 mph which really isn't anything different from what's just above the deck. 

Ditty and ORH are at 975mb already

[weatherwiz]

Just now, dendrite said:

Ditty and ORH are at 975mb already

House gone tonight? 

[OrangeCTWX]

Seems like the winds sorta dies down when it’s raining, but then start gusting again once the rain passes through. 

[CoastalWx]

Yep warm seclusion baby. Looks good

[ineedsnow]

convection going up around the center now

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=nwatl&product=vis_swir

[SouthCoastMA]

should be quite stormy later, .97" so far

South shore with the incoming jack..cc masswx

[klw]

17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

There's a giant spinnaker south of Long Island 

Bad time for a regatta

[kdxken]

25 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Ditty and ORH are at 975mb already

Airport gusting well. 

 

[Ginx snewx]

 This things pulling water vapor from the Caribbean 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Like watching the grass grow waiting for the real meat of storm to pivot in. Overnight Saturday into Sunday has been pegged for worst of it. Winds and rains have been off and on. Nothing noteworthy yet.

[moneypitmike]

Got some thunder here in Mattapoisett.

[kdxken]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep warm seclusion baby. Looks good