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Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer


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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Sunday looks shot, but if we stay dry most of the week it may be mostly 60s with 40s/50s at night. It's just a lot of NE flow.

And for the end of the week? A solid nobody knows? Some models are spitting out some hefty rainfalls. I hate rain.

"Finally, the guidance suite is hinting at a possible coastal low
pressure some time Thursday into Friday. However, there are
rather large variances in track and timing. For example, the 12Z
GFS has a low pressure over the Gulf of Maine at 8 AM next
Friday. Meanwhile, the 12Z ECMWF has this same low pressure about 300 miles east of southern MD for this same time.
Different positions also lead to different tracks due to
interactions with a mid level trough."
 

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IF we're looking for interesting weather over the next few weeks, best combination would be the 5 days of moisture train panning out, combined with a subtropical/somewhat tropical development off the SE coast coming north over the next week or two. Other than that we may be kvetching until the first proper nor'easter. 

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@CoastalWxPT time in Weymouth?  00z GFS all in.  WPC in their 7-day pcpn totals likes it!

And that's a lot of CAPE for a Nor'easter.  Lots of embedded tstms and good mixing down of BL high winds.  Why not?  It's Sep w/ SSTs highest and there is a sig area 100-150 mi S and E of CC of anomalies up to +4 C! @weatherwiz @ineedsnow getting ready.

Sfc low not that deep but when it is 1004, 1033 high in Quebec due N, so outstanding gradient and fetch for a Sep nor'easter.  I don't recall anything quite like this in Sep in recent times, but I'll let others chime in on that for historical context!

Only thing missing is some isolate pockets of of 0 C at 850 in NNE, but it does get down to +3 C even in MA. 
 

gfs.png

 

gfs1.png

wpc.gif

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3 hours ago, vortex95 said:

@CoastalWxPT time in Weymouth?  00z GFS all in.  WPC in their 7-day pcpn totals likes it!

And that's a lot of CAPE for a Nor'easter.  Lots of embedded tstms and good mixing down of BL high winds.  Why not?  It's Sep w/ SSTs highest and there is a sig area 100-150 mi S and E of CC of anomalies up to +4 C! @weatherwiz @ineedsnow getting ready.

Sfc low not that deep but when it is 1004, 1033 high in Quebec due N, so outstanding gradient and fetch for a Sep nor'easter.  I don't recall anything quite like this in Sep in recent times, but I'll let others chime in on that for historical context!

Only thing missing is some isolate pockets of of 0 C at 850 in NNE, but it does get down to +3 C even in MA. 
 

gfs.png

 

gfs1.png

wpc.gif

Euro and ICON are kind of meh! But the GFS, Euro AI,  GFS AI , and EPS are all showing it.. it could be a fun storm

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1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Euro and ICON are kind of meh! But the GFS, Euro AI,  GFS AI , and EPS are all showing it.. it could be a fun storm

"Deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to hint at the
potential for a coastal low pressure system sometime Thursday into Friday. However, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty in the
details of the pattern that will influence the track of this low.
Some solutions feature a low track closer to southern New England while others well off shore. Pretty low confidence at point, but warrants monitoring as it would bring potential for stronger winds, rough seas for the coastal waters and potentially another round of
rainfall.
 

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11 minutes ago, kdxken said:

"Deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to hint at the
potential for a coastal low pressure system sometime Thursday into Friday. However, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty in the
details of the pattern that will influence the track of this low.
Some solutions feature a low track closer to southern New England while others well off shore. Pretty low confidence at point, but warrants monitoring as it would bring potential for stronger winds, rough seas for the coastal waters and potentially another round of
rainfall.
 

Buyer beware from KALY:

THAT SAID, GUIDANCE IS NOTORIOUS   
FOR STRUGGLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THESE CLOSED UPPER LOWS IN   
THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE, SO CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF THE   
COASTAL LOW IS QUITE LOW. ADDITIONAL FORECAST CHANGES SHOULD BE   
EXPECTED OVER THE COMING DAYS.  

 

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