dendrite Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 This winter is already delivering anger and we haven’t reached the equinox yet. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 41.9 this AM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 Early morning rainbow at wally world in leominster 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 You wonder if these temps last through January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You wonder if these undies last through January. I feel like Allison would rather not find out.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 16 Author Share Posted September 16 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: Early morning rainbow at wally world in leominster Was Liam at the end of it? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 DT ** ALERT ** 1ST POSSIBLE Coastal LOW of the Season SEPT 23-25 then 1st SERIOUS Cold air Blast SEPT 26-28 1 1 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 The new Google model weathernext3 is out on some vendor pages like stormvista. Supposedly better than euro ai. Will be interesting to see how that works in the fall and winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 16 Author Share Posted September 16 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: DT ** ALERT ** 1ST POSSIBLE Coastal LOW of the Season SEPT 23-25 then 1st SERIOUS Cold air Blast SEPT 26-28 Looks frigid. Bundle up in the precinct 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The new Google model weathernext3 is out on some vendor pages like stormvista. Supposedly better than euro ai. Will be interesting to see how that works in the fall and winter. It’ll be fun when AI starts altering the weather or hacking weather station data to match its forecast output. 3 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: You wonder if these temps last through January. Certainly hope so so I don’t have to turn on the heat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 Also, is today the torch? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Looks frigid. Bundle up in the precinct EPS AI looks devastating 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Was Liam at the end of it? I think you both were 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The new Google model weathernext3 is out on some vendor pages like stormvista. Supposedly better than euro ai. Will be interesting to see how that works in the fall and winter. Weathernerds has it for tropical https://weathernerds.org/models/wnv3.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 2 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Also, is today the torch? if your definition of "torch" covers everything from -5 to +10, then yes, yes it is, today is a "torch" 67/60 in the 'hood 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 72 here as more humid air makes inroads...sun coming out too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 2 hours ago, ineedsnow said: Weathernerds has it for tropical https://weathernerds.org/models/wnv3.html Fairly active in the Atlantic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Fairly active in the Atlantic. We'll have to see if anything develops. It's been humorous at times with the GFS and its fantasy canes even some other long-range guidance at times trying to develop stuff...almost like because "there has to be something". Even this I think is way overdone. What I think could happen though is there may be brief periods of small geo-spatial areas where conditions are favorable and if a wave hits these areas it might form into something but any life span is going to be very short-lived. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 Endless summer fail 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 It's a torch in the other deep layer synoptic metrics ... just not at the surface. It's unusual to have 590 dm non-hydrostats and keep it less than 80 in an offshore flow. I've actually seem this sort of oddity with increasing frequency in recent years. Not sure if it's a Gretta or not but ... it's when non-hydrostats and even the hydrostatic heights (thickness) are elevated enough for very warm (relative to season...) yet the surface is some significantly blunted below the potential. The lower troposphere is oddly lagging behind the mid/upper air sounding. interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 5 hours ago, CoastalWx said: The new Google model weathernext3 is out on some vendor pages like stormvista. Supposedly better than euro ai. Will be interesting to see how that works in the fall and winter. I have weathernet3 data available on my ginxweather.com website 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's a torch in the other deep layer synoptic metrics ... just not at the surface. It's unusual to have 590 dm non-hydrostats and keep it less than 80 in an offshore flow. I've actually seem this sort of oddity with increasing frequency in recent years. Not sure if it's a Gretta or not but ... it's when non-hydrostats and even the hydrostatic heights (thickness) are elevated enough for very warm (relative to season...) yet the surface is some significantly blunted below the potential. The lower troposphere is oddly lagging behind the mid/upper air sounding. interesting The potential is certainly there to be quite above average and this is the time of year (along with spring) where one needs to be extremely careful with using model 2M temperature output to forecast temperatures. I mean I don't think this is as big of an issue in our region but you look at the midwestern states this time of year and model 2M temps (and MOS) can bust 10-20F too low. Anyways, the look has the potential to be quite warm, however, I think there is going to be potential for more "blocky" or BDCF risk moving into the second half of the month. The other thing we're starting to see too is with stronger shortwaves coming down from Canada, that upper-level ridge which has been locked in since July is starting to get beat up. That GFS "cold blast" which DT was probably referring too I think is just typical extended range GFS overblown crap but we'll probably end up seasonal for temps...and maybe a bit below if we get the BDCF riddled pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 5 hours ago, dendrite said: It’ll be fun when AI starts altering the weather or hacking weather station data to match its forecast output. Joke ( or not ) aside ... something like 'weather modification' may be down the road of Quantum Computing. If and when the QC cores start actually understanding all the quantum states of a system simultaneously - largely purported to be how they 'quantum compute' - it doesn't intuitively seem like sending spin instructions/communicating to the matrix ( so to speak ) is a very big leap beyond that. We had a course work in 'chaos' in nature vs weather modeling in FAST II back in the headier university days up at UML. ...Jesus the dinosaurs were big back then... The principle idea was that weather modeling would one day hit a limit ... the speculation back then in the 1990s was that it would probably be between 5 and 7... beyond that, the permutation horizon was not readable, because it was based up emergence' that were yet to occur. That may still be true, yet ... won't matter. Because we don't have to know the future any longer. Philosophically, there's no need for the preparation if were programming the winds. In other words, conventional model become a thing of the past. What a weird state that would be. For those that are born in such an era, not so much. But if one remembers a time when "pita-flops" were required to multi-modal processing of navier-stokes at grid points... and the trillions in tech and satellite that went into it all ... paper weights. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 Its a start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 5 hours ago, weatherwiz said: We'll have to see if anything develops. It's been humorous at times with the GFS and its fantasy canes even some other long-range guidance at times trying to develop stuff...almost like because "there has to be something". Even this I think is way overdone. What I think could happen though is there may be brief periods of small geo-spatial areas where conditions are favorable and if a wave hits these areas it might form into something but any life span is going to be very short-lived. The GFS is useless, but yeah, that’s basics my peak season forecast. I’m out on a limb with 3 H 1 MH but I think the windows will open. 40 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Its a start First flakes at SLK? We kicked things off on 10/31 last year and were off to the races not too long after. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 Topped out at 80F. Felt warm comparatively to what we just had. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 37 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Topped out at 80F. Felt warm comparatively to what we just had. Definitely warm this evening feels good. I'm in no rush for the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 it's done. 5 months of autumn incoming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 Great sunset this evening… 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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