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Napril 2026 Discussion/Obs


Torch Tiger
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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

March forecast review:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/04/march-warmer-than-forecast.html

Not a bad effort for the month of March overall, but it ended up much warmer than forecast on a national level due to the failure of high latitude blocking to materialize following the split of the polar vortex, which was a forecast risk that was communicated last fall. Locally here in southern New England it was anywhere from 2 to 4*F warmer than normal, as opposed to the forecast of -2 to near normal.
Seasonal recap incoming in May.
 
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21 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Today will turn out to nice but it is a crap start for sure.

 

It's going to be fun watching the models fail as this stagnated cold saturated density on the bottom of the atmosphere clings to the region.   

If it does turn out "nice" ...it will be among the more exceptional same 12 hour period turn arounds recorded. 

37/drizzle.     

It also isn't a good look when there is an active NE wind down in NJ, still, approaching mid morning.   

I'm perfectly willing to go with the bust today if need be.  Haven't been completely sold on the whiplash. But should it turn around enough to fairly transform this rectal plaque into a nice description,   hell...stranger things have happened I guess.  

Edit, recent check and the wind field has finally this hour gone variable between BOS-PHL so perhaps en masse mixing event is readying itself.  We'll see.

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23 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I doubt the sun comes out...even down here.

Mixing is key...

The models try to warm sector everywhere S of Brian and including his latitude, which agreed ... at the moment challenges the imagination as how in the hell that can actually happen when looking at larger regional synoptic observations.  

Take this hi res vis loop,

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Virginia-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Notice that wedge of very low level cloud arrow heading into interior VA.  That's like a latex paint spill on a highway, imagine cloud-cars are gliding over the top of it.  We are underneath that paint spill in this metaphor.    In order to scour that out, the sun will help... but mixing is really needed for that to happen. 

Pure speculation, but I suspect that is why the meso models have been insistently cool as they have been, despite the frontal look of the models ( 18 to 00z later on...).  They are telling us that there won't be enough mixing.   It's like the warm sector pivots across the top never kissing the surface.  

Need the cold front to clean house.  Tomorrow may actually be better than guidance, particularly if it clears.  Ample late summer sun quality rising over a scoured out d-slope flow that isn't CAA crazy might actually make conditions anomalously good relative to having an overtop high pressure again building in from Ontario.  

Which by they ... - I'm just diatribing in general - odds lean away from observing a real and true wholesale warming over the eastern mid lat continent, if/while that PV continues to its relentless re-establishing presence N-E of Hudson Bay. So long as that is apparently never ever ever going to change ... eh hm, we are doomed to those over top high pressures ... almost like back building they are, bullying in and afflicting with NE-E "coldrums"

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12 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

 

 

Messenger_creation_4A5B11AE-9189-40D2-8158-6C41580DFCB2.jpeg

After that discussion last night… despite 850s well above 0C, we got some convection that caused rain to change to pasty snow.

I’ve never seen snow fall with soundings like last night.

2am and +7C at 850mb and pounding paste in convection?

nam-nest-vt-t850-5196000.thumb.png.05c449ede3d1a1484d09680344ae1f23.png

IMG_6732.thumb.jpeg.1cd76ac2b8b1b55a7f30d5f25e36295e.jpeg
IMG_6733.thumb.jpeg.6fc12dcc0c6e83d2fcd50f9ebaa3060d.jpeg

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

After that discussion last night… despite 850s well above 0C, we got some convection that caused rain to change to pasty snow.

I’ve never seen snow fall with soundings like last night.

2am and +7C at 850mb and pounding paste in convection?

nam-nest-vt-t850-5196000.thumb.png.05c449ede3d1a1484d09680344ae1f23.png

IMG_6732.thumb.jpeg.1cd76ac2b8b1b55a7f30d5f25e36295e.jpeg
IMG_6733.thumb.jpeg.6fc12dcc0c6e83d2fcd50f9ebaa3060d.jpeg

Wetbulbs verified a lot cooler than that in the H7-85 layer. Add in some extra cooling with convective lift and I guess it was enough to overcome.

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