March Banter 2026

[George BM]

Forecast Discussion

Tuesday, March 17, 2026 1:53PM EDT

Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 8PM EDT Tuesday, March 17, 2026

SPC Outlook Tornado: 5%, Wind: 90% CIGI 1, Hail: 5%

Unseasonably warm and humid conditions remain in place throughout the region early this afternoon with upper 70s to mid 80s surface temps and low to mid 60s dewpoints. This is allowing for MLCAPE of 500-800+ J/kg. Strong ridge of high pressure remains entrenched over the southeastern US with a stationary front draped just to our north. Between the high to the south and lower heights to the north there is a belt of strong 50-60+ kt deep-layer flow (400-700mb).

A well-developed severe MCS/derecho w/ an associated cold pool/ rear-inflow jet is currently located over eastern WV and will move across the entire region over the next several hours. Steepening low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE should allow this MCS to survive the trek over the mountains and cruise through the area. Widespread severe winds are, by far, the main threat with these storms, though a few QLCS tornadoes are certainly a threat given some fairly decent low-level shear (effective SRH in excess of 250 m2/s2).

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has placed the entire area under a 90% wind risk w/ a level one CIGI which correlates to a moderate (level 4/5) risk. Moderate risk days from the SPC are rare as we’ve only had two such days previously in the last 13 years. Widespread wind gusts of 60-80 mph w/ a few locally higher gusts are expected as the line moves through at around 55-60kts.

Skies will clear through the evening with temps holding in the 60s throughout the night before another round of potential severe storms tomorrow with the cold front pushing through from northwest to southeast as a more potent shortwave moves just to our north. Temps and dewpoints will be similar to today ahead of the front.