Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread

[SnowenOutThere]

One last picture from my two hour Jebwalk. Three second exposure by the creek bed. 

[Wetbulbs88]

Just took the pup out for a jeb and some frolicking. Decent rates. Not even close to an inch an hour though. Hard to imagine that this is the norlun but maybe we're not really in it. 

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

If you’re between the red lines, you’ll probably get the norlun jacks

 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

So it doesn’t extend into pa? lol figures 

It might extend north just west of the westiminster-hanover line, but iffy

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

I never think it’s that simple to just subtract 2F. It was a dog shit antecedent airmass. It happens. It was dog shit for the beaches too and they just won, that’s a Nina for you.

 

59 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

On this one I’m with you, airmass leading in was a turd and larger pattern were in isn’t ideal either. There are some good transient pieces in place, but it could be better. 

The thing is we can get stuck on exactly how much colder it would have been in 2000/1970/1950… yes the 2f/3f figure is an average. But it would have been colder. And any colder would have helped. I can’t say how much. Would I have got 6” instead of 5?  Or 7 or 8. I dunno.
 

But I find it weird that people are getting stuck on that specific “we can’t say exactly how much it’s hurting” argument. Yes we kinda do. On the whole DC has gone from 25” to 14” over 100 years.  Maybe we can attribute some of that to the location change so let’s say the real figure is 25 to 17. That’s still a very significant decrease!   No we can’t say each storm exactly how it would have been different but we know we’ve lost about 30% of our snowfall. Same at Baltimore. Why get stuck on “well exactly how much did it hurt”.  It hurt. It is hurting. We are snowing less because it is warmer. Some storms it impacts more than others but when we’re borderline temps seems pretty obvious to me those are the most impacted. 

[mitchnick]

Really snowing hard in Hanover. Visibility is lowwwwww.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Really snowing hard in Hanover. Visibility is lowwwwww.

IVT

[mappy]

31.5° 1.5” of mashed potato snow, all surfaces covered. 

[bncho]

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

If you’re between the red lines, you’ll probably get the norlun jacks

@aldie 22YOU CALLED IT! LETS FUCKIN GO!

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Just took the pup out for a jeb and some frolicking. Decent rates. Not even close to an inch an hour though. Hard to imagine that this is the norlun but maybe we're not really in it. 

 

Can we get that to rotate east some please 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

 

The thing is we can get stuck on exactly how much colder it would have been in 2000/1970/1950… yes the 2f/3f figure is an average. But it would have been colder. And any colder would have helped. I can’t say how much. Would I have got 6” instead of 5?  Or 7 or 8. I dunno.
 

But I find it weird that people are getting stuck on that specific “we can’t say exactly how much it’s hurting” argument. Yes we kinda do. On the whole DC has gone from 25” to 14” over 100 years.  Maybe we can attribute some of that to the location change so let’s say the real figure is 25 to 17. That’s still a very significant decrease!   No we can’t say each storm exactly how it would have been different but we know we’ve lost about 30% of our snowfall. Same at Baltimore. Why get stuck on “well exactly how much did it hurt”.  It hurt. It is hurting. We are snowing less because it is warmer. Some storms it impacts more than others but when we’re borderline temps seems pretty obvious to me those are the most impacted. 

Before the flip to snow, I picked up 0.27” and now I have over 2”. Perhaps 5 degrees colder would have put me at 5”. But 2-3 degrees cooler? More blurry. Maybe 3-4” or something like that. 

[gunny23]

9 minutes ago, Nomz said:

I think (hope) that it’s setting up a couple miles more east.

I am like under the western red line so I need it a few miles west :-)

[CAPE]

Looks like 4 inches or so on my security cam at home.

Snow has been moderate here in Easton and going sideways with the wind. Probably 2-3 inches.

[ravensrule]

Just now, CAPE said:

Looks like 4 inches or so on my security cam at home.

Snow has been moderate here in Easton and going sideways with the wind. Probably 2-3 inches.

Do you see me sneaking into your extra bedroom?. 

[JakkelWx]

getting mauled by this band. heavy snow and wind gusting 35 maybe 40 MPH. very close to blizzard conditions. can't see SHIT

[Terpeast]

Got a split. This wasn’t modeled, no?

[bncho]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Got a split. This wasn’t modeled, no?

There's TWO NORLUNS?

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Got a split. This wasn’t modeled, no?

Happy to report I’m right in the middle of it! Good times 

[mattie g]

What’s funny is that it’s still coming down pretty good here, but it’s melting almost as fast as it’s falling because it’s 33 degrees.

[EHoffman]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Got a split. This wasn’t modeled, no?

I think the western band will ultimately be the money band.  Hope it shifts east enough.

[snowfan]

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Got a split. This wasn’t modeled, no?

The two will merge and usher in the new ice age, Day After Tomorrow style

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

There's TWO NORLUNS?

WE'VE GOT DOUBLE NORLUNS

[George BM]

1.9" so far in Herndon, VA.

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Got a split. This wasn’t modeled, no?

I'm in the westen one. Nothing crazy but definitely moderate snow 

[EHoffman]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

There's TWO NORLUNS?

I'm seeing double! Four Norluns!

[Terpeast]

Just now, Chris78 said:

I'm in the westen one. Nothing crazy but definitely moderate snow 

I asked my wife if its still snowing and she said no (I’m on baby duty rn). Maybe she just didn’t look carefully 

[Paleocene]

MCPS closed tomorrow. 

[ThePhotoGuy]

Pasadena

Snow and 33 degrees. 
Grass covered. Very light dusting on porch and everything else is just wet. 

[jnis]

Ugh, I just lost power 

[WEATHER53]

8pm update

1.5” on full shade ground and snowboard still behind 

Its a heavy rate but flake size small 

34.2F