Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread

[CAPE]

Heavy rates and dynamic cooling doin it

temp 32.5

[Paleocene]

Surface temp maps were consistently 33 and above through 20-22z on basically every model for the last three days. We knew, and discussed, that it would be white rain at best, rate dependent. And that is exactly what is happening. IDK why people are surprised. It will flip. Pray for an earlier flip, and better rates after flip!

[T. August]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Heavy rates and dynamic cooling doin it

temp 32.5

You’re getting 10”+

[TSSN+]

35 and rain in good ole Hanover. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

My temp went up a degree.. 36F. Light rain

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, T. August said:

You’re getting 10”+

Hopefully. Ill see what's otg tomorrow around 4pm lol

I have some local peeps that will periodically measure for me.

[Warm Nose]

9 minutes ago, Jake Wx said:

 

Norlun or not, I can't see that verifying for the reason PSU brought up. Not enough moisture to get anywhere near those totals.

[ThePhotoGuy]

The city of Annapolis must have seen the GFS from a few days ago and just put it out in their emergency alert. 

[DDweatherman]

Radar is improving nicely for the FDK and n/w crew back to 81.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Don’t even look at the models, it’s chips fall time.  Whatever happens tonight will happen, check the radar and temps. In hoping we rip 4-10 pm and I get a solid jebwalk.  

[Jake Wx]

1 minute ago, Warm Nose said:

Norlun or not, I can't see that verifying for the reason PSU brought up. Not enough moisture to get anywhere near those totals.

Several models have more then this so whats your point ??

[GATECH]

Just now, ThePhotoGuy said:

The city of Annapolis must have seen the GFS from a few days ago and just put it out in their emergency alert. 

LOL, probably meant 4-8

[Chris78]

@Bubbler86 @paxpatriot

Over/under for 3 " for our yards? 

IVT maybe just a little east on the latest model runs.

 

[aldie 22]

Rates picking back up after a period of light. Still super pretty out

[NorthArlington101]

Euro precip after 5 and 7. Good luck!

[ge0]

bleh. kind of regret tracking this. 

36.7 and rain

[87storms]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Radar is improving nicely for the FDK and n/w crew back to 81.

Problem is it’s not snow. Getting to the point of wasting qpf and there’s puddles everywhere. Ain’t nothing gonna accumulate here for hours. Hopefully the ULL delivers later…I think it will for a few hrs which is what I’m saving my energy for.

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

@Bubbler86 @paxpatriot

Over/under for 3 " for our yards? 

IVT maybe just a little east on the latest model runs.

 

Dude this event is weird. Driving through blue ridge and penmar…1300 feet there was about 1.5” maybe in grass… down to 1100 and 1000 on the way down, basically nothing, and rain snow mix.

Meanwhile, I have almost 2” in the grass at 900ft about a mile from Carroll Valley..

[AmericanWxFreak]

Let’s not forget best rates will be after dark - that will help.

[aldie 22]

Dumping fatties 

[SnowtoRain]

33.4 heavy snow starting to stick on cold surfaces

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

Dumping fatties 

Let’s go baby. I’m still optimistic for your area, radar is a solid look right now. 

[MillvilleWx]

6 minutes ago, ThePhotoGuy said:

The city of Annapolis must have seen the GFS from a few days ago and just put it out in their emergency alert. 

Man, a DASH of something would've been helpful here  

[gunny23]

6 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Radar is improving nicely for the FDK and n/w crew back to 81.

We just got off 81 in Winchester.  It is really coming down but not sticking.

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Fair question, and tbh, that's a question for the Sterling WFO. WPC actually does our own snow forecast and we've been lower than they have for this one for our neck of the woods. I have had you around 6-9" when I forecasted last 3 days. We coordinate on things, but the end of the day, the snowfall forecasts are the WFO's for their respective CWA's and they can refer to ours for cohesiveness. You put 10 meteorologists into a room and you'll get 11 forecasts. It's been a tough one outside NJ/LI/Mass since they are getting creamed no matter what. Btw, we have between 0.5-0.6" for your area after the flip with ~6-6.5" of snow accumulation, so could very well hit the lower half of the forecast, but probably a safer forecast with 4-8" for your hood. That's just my 2cents. Hopefully we get hit good for 4-6 hrs before things wind down. Going to be really nice dendrites with this one. 

Thank you. I really appreciated the reply. Seems we are much closer on thinking and you can’t and shouldn’t have to justify others decisions lol. 
 

I was just perplexed because while there was some model support for that 5-10 call it relies on a decent amount of accumulation today. The NAMs and the SREF and RAP all showed what would justify a 5–10 call. But they all had accumulating snow today. The forecast went non accumulating today which was correct but still higher totals.  Seemed like a weird combo of two opposite scenarios. Maybe a hedge?  

[DDweatherman]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

Man, a DASH of something would've been helpful here  

Did you see my post above? Why am I the local jack at 900 ft elevation in Carroll valley just east of the ridges vs places just west at blue ridge summit having similar and then 1k-1200ft having wet grass west of pen mar? 

[Terpeast]

I don’t think the globals have value at this point when calculating how much qpf falls before/after the flip and doing the math. The CAMs already account for this, they hardly have any accumulation (0.5” or less) anywhere but the high elevs until 22-23z. Even if we lop off an inch across the board due to melting, the forecast will still verify on the middle to low end. We won’t hit the 90th percentile numbers so I think we can put that to bed, but the forecast is still very much in play. 

[aldie 22]

This batch is accumulating

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Terpeast said:

I don’t think the globals have value at this point when calculating how much qpf falls before/after the flip and doing the math. The CAMs already account for this, they hardly have any accumulation (0.5” or less) anywhere but the high elevs until 22-23z. Even if we lop off an inch across the board due to melting, the forecast will still verify on the middle to low end. We won’t hit the 90th percentile numbers so I think we can put that to bed, but the forecast is still very much in play. 

The only one that may is the euro, and that shows the majority of accumulations from the IVT and it moving east. It is pretty damn bullish with that though, drops 6-8” over my yard. 

[mattie g]

Just now, aldie 22 said:

This batch is accumulating

I don’t even know where the hell you live anymore.