CAPE Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Heavy rates and dynamic cooling doin it temp 32.5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Surface temp maps were consistently 33 and above through 20-22z on basically every model for the last three days. We knew, and discussed, that it would be white rain at best, rate dependent. And that is exactly what is happening. IDK why people are surprised. It will flip. Pray for an earlier flip, and better rates after flip! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Heavy rates and dynamic cooling doin it temp 32.5 You’re getting 10”+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 35 and rain in good ole Hanover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 My temp went up a degree.. 36F. Light rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, T. August said: You’re getting 10”+ Hopefully. Ill see what's otg tomorrow around 4pm lol I have some local peeps that will periodically measure for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 9 minutes ago, Jake Wx said: Norlun or not, I can't see that verifying for the reason PSU brought up. Not enough moisture to get anywhere near those totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 The city of Annapolis must have seen the GFS from a few days ago and just put it out in their emergency alert. 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Radar is improving nicely for the FDK and n/w crew back to 81. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Don’t even look at the models, it’s chips fall time. Whatever happens tonight will happen, check the radar and temps. In hoping we rip 4-10 pm and I get a solid jebwalk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Wx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Warm Nose said: Norlun or not, I can't see that verifying for the reason PSU brought up. Not enough moisture to get anywhere near those totals. Several models have more then this so whats your point ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, ThePhotoGuy said: The city of Annapolis must have seen the GFS from a few days ago and just put it out in their emergency alert. LOL, probably meant 4-8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 @Bubbler86 @paxpatriot Over/under for 3 " for our yards? IVT maybe just a little east on the latest model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Rates picking back up after a period of light. Still super pretty out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Euro precip after 5 and 7. Good luck! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ge0 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 bleh. kind of regret tracking this. 36.7 and rain 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Radar is improving nicely for the FDK and n/w crew back to 81. Problem is it’s not snow. Getting to the point of wasting qpf and there’s puddles everywhere. Ain’t nothing gonna accumulate here for hours. Hopefully the ULL delivers later…I think it will for a few hrs which is what I’m saving my energy for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: @Bubbler86 @paxpatriot Over/under for 3 " for our yards? IVT maybe just a little east on the latest model runs. Dude this event is weird. Driving through blue ridge and penmar…1300 feet there was about 1.5” maybe in grass… down to 1100 and 1000 on the way down, basically nothing, and rain snow mix. Meanwhile, I have almost 2” in the grass at 900ft about a mile from Carroll Valley.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Let’s not forget best rates will be after dark - that will help. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Dumping fatties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 33.4 heavy snow starting to stick on cold surfaces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, aldie 22 said: Dumping fatties Let’s go baby. I’m still optimistic for your area, radar is a solid look right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 6 minutes ago, ThePhotoGuy said: The city of Annapolis must have seen the GFS from a few days ago and just put it out in their emergency alert. Man, a DASH of something would've been helpful here 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gunny23 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 6 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Radar is improving nicely for the FDK and n/w crew back to 81. We just got off 81 in Winchester. It is really coming down but not sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 15 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Fair question, and tbh, that's a question for the Sterling WFO. WPC actually does our own snow forecast and we've been lower than they have for this one for our neck of the woods. I have had you around 6-9" when I forecasted last 3 days. We coordinate on things, but the end of the day, the snowfall forecasts are the WFO's for their respective CWA's and they can refer to ours for cohesiveness. You put 10 meteorologists into a room and you'll get 11 forecasts. It's been a tough one outside NJ/LI/Mass since they are getting creamed no matter what. Btw, we have between 0.5-0.6" for your area after the flip with ~6-6.5" of snow accumulation, so could very well hit the lower half of the forecast, but probably a safer forecast with 4-8" for your hood. That's just my 2cents. Hopefully we get hit good for 4-6 hrs before things wind down. Going to be really nice dendrites with this one. Thank you. I really appreciated the reply. Seems we are much closer on thinking and you can’t and shouldn’t have to justify others decisions lol. I was just perplexed because while there was some model support for that 5-10 call it relies on a decent amount of accumulation today. The NAMs and the SREF and RAP all showed what would justify a 5–10 call. But they all had accumulating snow today. The forecast went non accumulating today which was correct but still higher totals. Seemed like a weird combo of two opposite scenarios. Maybe a hedge? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, MillvilleWx said: Man, a DASH of something would've been helpful here Did you see my post above? Why am I the local jack at 900 ft elevation in Carroll valley just east of the ridges vs places just west at blue ridge summit having similar and then 1k-1200ft having wet grass west of pen mar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I don’t think the globals have value at this point when calculating how much qpf falls before/after the flip and doing the math. The CAMs already account for this, they hardly have any accumulation (0.5” or less) anywhere but the high elevs until 22-23z. Even if we lop off an inch across the board due to melting, the forecast will still verify on the middle to low end. We won’t hit the 90th percentile numbers so I think we can put that to bed, but the forecast is still very much in play. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 This batch is accumulating 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, Terpeast said: I don’t think the globals have value at this point when calculating how much qpf falls before/after the flip and doing the math. The CAMs already account for this, they hardly have any accumulation (0.5” or less) anywhere but the high elevs until 22-23z. Even if we lop off an inch across the board due to melting, the forecast will still verify on the middle to low end. We won’t hit the 90th percentile numbers so I think we can put that to bed, but the forecast is still very much in play. The only one that may is the euro, and that shows the majority of accumulations from the IVT and it moving east. It is pretty damn bullish with that though, drops 6-8” over my yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, aldie 22 said: This batch is accumulating I don’t even know where the hell you live anymore. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now