“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[Vinny Findley]

33 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Things got real here got a real emergency alert EAS tones and all on my phone for the Blizzard Warning. Don’t get these often.

3 phones went off at the same time for that. Me my wife and my daughter!

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

We loved Mariano!!!

Mariano_wx? 

[JACKASS]

7 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

If I repeated what has already been said, I apologize.  I have not read every posts on this thread.  Let CoastalWx-type weenie-ism do that!  

No need to apologize!

Excellent breakdown and  explanation of the differences between the two storms.

Thankyou for your post!

[moneypitmike]

24 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Have to get this off my chest!

There is a lot of talk going around comparing this to the Blizzard of '78 or "will be like" the Blizzard of '78.  To deflate the senseless click-bait hype and assuage fears, it will not be anything like the Blizzard of '78 when looking at the entire picture, and the details count here as well!
 

 

So something like the Blizzard of '78 Rt 128 disaster w/ 1000s of ppl stuck and cars stranded resulting in the highway closed for a week, simply cannot happen now.  Ppl know to stay off the roads and businesses closed down for the storm, so the road crews can do their job.

 
Another aspect, snow removal has evolved over the decades, and we are much better at it.  From better chemicals to put down on the road to the actual snow removal equipment itself to how it is all coordinated. We learned a lot from the Blizzard of '78 and many other blockbuster snowstorms since then, and that's a good thing!

There are a lot more private contractors plowing now than 50 years ago, and things like those little Bobcat front-end loaders are ubiquitous now.  Didn't see those much in the region through the 1980s for snow removal.  Snow removal has become big business!

And the general population knows ahead of time what is coming, so the shock and awe factor is much less.  Ppl change their plans, stock up on supplies, and think of various contingencies, like if power goes out.  This  smooths out the impact of the storm psychologically, and again, that is a good thing!

 

 

Providence didn't get the memo.

[Greg]

10 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

If I repeated what has already been said, I apologize.  I have not read every posts on this thread.  Let CoastalWx-type weenie-ism do that!  

That was an excellent writeup though. Great job! 

[klw]

15 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Have to get this off my chest!

There is a lot of talk going around comparing this to the Blizzard of '78 or "will be like" the Blizzard of '78.  To deflate the senseless click-bait hype and assuage fears, it will not be anything like the Blizzard of '78 when looking at the entire picture, and the details count here as well!

Both from a meteorological and non-meteorological standpoint, this imminent storm will not reach the legendary status of 1978.  I can  say that w/ high confidence.  Why?, b/c when you know history and 

circumstances, not only for storms, but also how society has changed, the picture becomes clear.

In this post, I will talk about the more obvious and straightforward, the non-meteorological parts/factors

Preparations leading up to a storm are *everything*, or at least a lot more  that many think, as to lessening overall impact.  As I have said before, a disaster is typically only as bad as the preparations, or lack of, before it. This does not mean very high impact still does not occur, but so much "bad" is averted or mitigated.

The forecasts for the Blizzard of '78 were not that good overall, so many from  the individual to local/state agencies were not prepared.  This almost never happens anymore for storms, certainly not for the really big and high-end ones, and the science of forecasting and modelling have improved immensely over time.  

And the way we get information has also dramatically changed, so it is very hard *not* to know what is going on w/ the weather now.  Yes, it has gone the other way w/ *too* much hype for every single event, no matter how small or typical, and that has its own share of issues, 

but we are hardly ever "caught by surprise," at least for big winter storms.

So something like the Blizzard of '78 Rt 128 disaster w/ 1000s of ppl stuck and cars stranded resulting in the highway closed for a week, simply cannot happen now.  Ppl know to stay off the roads and businesses closed down for the storm, so the road crews can do their job.

So from what I said above, physically that made the Blizzard of '78 much worse, and also psychologically was huge b/c witnessing the region paralyzed like that is an unsettling thought, to say the least!

Another aspect, snow removal has evolved over the decades, and we are much better at it.  From better chemicals to put down on the road to the actual snow removal equipment itself to how it is all coordinated. We learned a lot from the Blizzard of '78 and many other blockbuster snowstorms since then, and that's a good thing!

There are a lot more private contractors plowing now than 50 years ago, and things like those little Bobcat front-end loaders are ubiquitous now.  Didn't see those much in the region through the 1980s for snow removal.  Snow removal has become big business!

And the general population knows ahead of time what is coming, so the shock and awe factor is much less.  Ppl change their plans, stock up on supplies, and think of various contingencies, like if power goes out.  This  smooths out the impact of the storm psychologically, and again, that is a good thing!

 

Another factor re roads is that nowadays so many people have AWD or 4WD vehicles.  I remember even with the 96 storm there were calls out for folks with AWD to help people get to hospitals.  After that we had the SUV explosion.   The odds of thousands of RWD cars getting stuck is so much lower today simply because what we are driving has changed.

[MaineJayhawk]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Where's Maine Jayhawk with over 30 gun salute Fire!!

Hard to believe I still have this .. almost 15 years old

[donsutherland1]

The 21z NBM (v.5.0):

[tavwtby]

14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

So fun to watch

Boom!

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

As long as it doesn't slide east  

Looking at upper level water vapor and mesoanalysis...I think I would be a bit shocked if slides east. In fact, I think this will end up tracking somewhat close to what some guidance was showing 0z/12z yesterday...maybe not quite to the extent but I think some of the east jogs we saw today are overstated 

[George001]

Is this storm a Miller A or B?

[klw]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

One of? He is it. The best . And it’s not close 

He may be the best if you are judging by such parameters as skill, talent, and performance.  If you are judging by on-mound histrionics, he couldn't hold a torch to Al Hrabosky or Brad "the Animal" Lesley

[vortex95]

Part 2 of my Blizzard of 78 comparison "rant"!

So for the meteorological aspects of this storm compared to the 

Blizzard of '78?, it really does not hold a candle to it IMHO.  Yes, 

I know the intensity of the low pressure itself will be stronger 

than than 78 and the pressure difference from the low S of New 

England and the high pressure center over western Ontario is
significantly larger now than 78, but that is just one aspect, and
you can't treat one factor in a vacuum or use single aspect, and
say, "it's going to be worse for sensible weather!"  That's not
how it works in the atmosphere as many other factors come
into play.

 

The upcoming storm will not stall for 24 hr like the Blizzard of '78 

did.  The pattern is progressive and not blocked.  Also, when the

Blizzard of '78 stalled and rapidly deepened, it was in an absolutely ]

ideal location for southern New England to get the worst of it.

 

In many storms, there is a "sweet spot," so to speak, where

the low rapidly intensifies and one area, usually N of the 

sfc low, gets the max sensible wx impacts, whether 

than be the most intense precip rates or or highest winds. 

For this storm, the RI will take place tonight not far off the
Delmarva, well S of the region, by the time the low gets
close enough for its biggest impacts to the region, that
rapid intensification period is done.

 

Oh, don't get me wrong, it is still a very powerful storm, 

but we are not in the absolute "sweet spot" like we had in 

the Blizzard of '78.

 

Yes, I know I sound like I am splitting hairs here, but these 

details count.  For instance, it may be the difference between 

getting "only" 3"/hr snowfall rates instead of 5"/hr.  I know 

looking from a broad view that may seem insignificant, but

snowfall rates do count for impact, esp. for airport operations 

and road crews.

 

The overall pattern over NAMR now is nothing like it was
leading up and during the Blizzard of '78.  This is the biggest
difference overall. 

 

For 78, the evolution was about as ideal and extreme as you 

could get, with a very deep trough amplifying in the eastern 

U.S. to form a very large, cut-off low pressure at 500 that 

stalled.  At the same time, an enormous ridge built up in the 

western U.S. and Canada, actually forming a cut-off high 

pressure at 500 in Canada, which is quite rare, in fact, the 

only case I know of for a big East Coast storm.  It was about 

as textbook classic as you could get!  This NAMR pattern in

Feb 78 was along the lines of what happened for the Blizzard of

'93.  Not exactly the same pattern for the 1993 storm (the "triple

phaser!"), but still extraordinary, and the result both times were
record storms.

 

The pattern now?  You look at it yesterday and the day before, 

and it looks nothing that unusual, and actually it was pointed 

out to me two days ago, "would you think looking at the 500 

over the Lower 48, a blockbuster blizzard would occur on the
East Coast a few days later???"  So kind of non-standard or
lacking classic setup, but the wx has virtually endless
combinations and can spit out some odd events that don't fit
the textbook classic what you learn in college!  This is what
keeps forecasting a challenge and enjoyable, always learning!

 

And how about the other big thing w/ the Blizzard of '78?, the 

coastal flooding, and not just one big storm tide, 4 in a row, 

and many locations had their highest storm tide on record, 

which was not exceeded in some locations until 2018.  Not 

going to see that w/ this storm.  There should be some significant

 coastal flooding, but since the storm is moving along, and the 

actual size of the storm is not as quite large to set up a big 

wind fetch which really builds the storm tides, I don't see how 

you can compare much to 78.

 

Another item?  There was a frigid arctic air mass in place in the 

NEUS prior to the Blizzard of '78.  We don't have that this

time.  This does make a difference often for total precip.  Having 

a frigid air mass at low-levels makes for great overrunning.  Recall
the big storm last month?  That had a frigid air mass in place, yet |
rather weak sfc low development, but it didn't matter for blockbuster 

snow amounts.  Now this time, we have an intense surface low, 

so that in itself will result in a lot of precip.  But compared to 78, 

which had an intense surface low *and* a frigid air mass in 

place for it to run into, that made for some exceptional snowfall 

amounts.

 

Regarding snowfall, no model is forecasting 3 ft or more snow for 

any location.  Max amounts in the Blizzard of '78 reached 50" in RI 

and eastern MA.  3 feet was widespread.  So the Blizzard of '26 is
not forecast to have snowfall amounts *this* high, so one needs to be
careful when bringing up our "big one" for comparison since it can

and does cause confusion, worry, and stress, among other things!

 

I would say that this blizzard will be a lot like the Blizzard of '13, 

which was a solid biggie/classic in all respects.  That *should* be

enough for CoastalWx, and Weatherwiz for that matter!  LOL. 
Weatherwiz though w/ his uber level of excitement (exceeding CoastalWx

I think now) will not be happy w/ anything less that 0SM TSGS+ SNOINCR 6
at his home!   

 

 

 

[Hoth]

Just now, George001 said:

Is this storm a Miller A or B?

This is a Miller Highlife storm. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, klw said:

Another factor re roads is that nowadays so many people have AWD or 4WD vehicles.  I remember even with the 96 storm there were calls out for folks with AWD to help people get to hospitals.  After that we had the SUV explosion.   The odds of thousands of RWD cars getting stuck is so much lower today simply because what we are driving has changed.

Dec 2007 didn’t care if people had AWD or FWD

[VivaManchVegas]

18 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Have to get this off my chest!

There is a lot of talk going around comparing this to the Blizzard of '78 or "will be like" the Blizzard of '78.  To deflate the senseless click-bait hype and assuage fears, it will not be anything like the Blizzard of '78 when looking at the entire picture, and the details count here as well!

Both from a meteorological and non-meteorological standpoint, this imminent storm will not reach the legendary status of 1978.  I can  say that w/ high confidence.  Why?, b/c when you know history and 

circumstances, not only for storms, but also how society has changed, the picture becomes clear.

In this post, I will talk about the more obvious and straightforward, the non-meteorological parts/factors

Preparations leading up to a storm are *everything*, or at least a lot more  that many think, as to lessening overall impact.  As I have said before, a disaster is typically only as bad as the preparations, or lack of, before it. This does not mean very high impact still does not occur, but so much "bad" is averted or mitigated.

The forecasts for the Blizzard of '78 were not that good overall, so many from  the individual to local/state agencies were not prepared.  This almost never happens anymore for storms, certainly not for the really big and high-end ones, and the science of forecasting and modelling have improved immensely over time.  

And the way we get information has also dramatically changed, so it is very hard *not* to know what is going on w/ the weather now.  Yes, it has gone the other way w/ *too* much hype for every single event, no matter how small or typical, and that has its own share of issues, 

but we are hardly ever "caught by surprise," at least for big winter storms.

So something like the Blizzard of '78 Rt 128 disaster w/ 1000s of ppl stuck and cars stranded resulting in the highway closed for a week, simply cannot happen now.  Ppl know to stay off the roads and businesses closed down for the storm, so the road crews can do their job.

So from what I said above, physically that made the Blizzard of '78 much worse, and also psychologically was huge b/c witnessing the region paralyzed like that is an unsettling thought, to say the least!

Another aspect, snow removal has evolved over the decades, and we are much better at it.  From better chemicals to put down on the road to the actual snow removal equipment itself to how it is all coordinated. We learned a lot from the Blizzard of '78 and many other blockbuster snowstorms since then, and that's a good thing!

There are a lot more private contractors plowing now than 50 years ago, and things like those little Bobcat front-end loaders are ubiquitous now.  Didn't see those much in the region through the 1980s for snow removal.  Snow removal has become big business!

And the general population knows ahead of time what is coming, so the shock and awe factor is much less.  Ppl change their plans, stock up on supplies, and think of various contingencies, like if power goes out.  This  smooths out the impact of the storm psychologically, and again, that is a good thing!

 

We live in different times.  We all have enough information in the palm of our hand, sometimes too much.  We lived in SNH at the time and my dad was smart enough to get out of Boston early as he was a Local 103 member. I should revisit that with him and why he got out on time.  But anyway, it is interesting to note I think SNH did not get that much snow but the drifts were crazy.  Our neighbor had a drive in basement garage that was completely covered over by snow.   It appears the wind will be wild with this one. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 21z NBM (v.5.0):

Donny Baseball!

[tavwtby]

3 minutes ago, klw said:

Another factor re roads is that nowadays so many people have AWD or 4WD vehicles.  I remember even with the 96 storm there were calls out for folks with AWD to help people get to hospitals.  After that we had the SUV explosion.   The odds of thousands of RWD cars getting stuck is so much lower today simply because what we are driving has changed.

I was one of those who volunteered to drive hospital and home nurse type folk in, I had just bought a 4WD AWD vehicle and it was glorious driving around, after I dropped a few off, my buddies and I went Waterbury dive bar hopping, still I think the heaviest I've seen as far as rates was that night driving by the glow of the street lights, I think 2013 was better but I didn't see it personally as I was asleep 

[vortex95]

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You missed the most costly aspect of 78. Lunar cycle and High astro tides.

I knew I left something out!

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Looking at upper level water vapor and mesoanalysis...I think I would be a bit shocked if slides east. In fact, I think this will end up tracking somewhat close to what some guidance was showing 0z/12z yesterday...maybe not quite to the extent but I think some of the east jogs we saw today are overstated 

Agree. Just bustin’.

Down to 994mb per mesoanalysis.

[FXWX]

22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When did you give Tip your phone to post?

While all of the points made are valid, unless I missed posts, I didn't see posts claiming this would have the same social impacts of the 78... Of course it won't and no one I know was claiming it was, at least that I am aware.  In fact, you can argue that all of the historic storms we talk about, be it blizzards, hurricanes, tornado outbreaks, etc will not have the similar social impacts given today's technology and communication systems.  Will a 1938 hurricane every happened again? Yes, but it won't hit with little or no warning and recovery time frames will be shorter.  So when folks make comparisons to historic events, I think most know full well today's snow removal capabilities are light years ahead of where the were in 1888 and/or 1978.  As Will stated this won't nearly be as long in terms of snow duration.  Are there some atmospheric features that have similarities to 78, as well as other Kocin storms?  Yes.  Are they identical NO, but they are interested to note.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

They know it. Like saying Papi struck out more times against the Yankees than any other team. Function of Longevity for the 2 HOFers Ali of a sudden I feel 1717 dirty 

Welcome to the Dark Side...

[Vinny Findley]

The Norwegian Breakaway cruise ship left the port of New York at 4:00 PM heading down to the Dominican Republic. Are they out of their FUCKING minds! 2 other cruise ships were supposed to leave but are still docked. I don't care how bad I needed a vacation I would not be on that ship. They are heading into a bombing storm where they most likely will hit hurricane force wind gusts! I think it was this same ship that hit a storm even stronger 4 or 5 years ago. They had water splashing up to the top decks and running down the elevator shafts and into the lower decks of the ship. Read many posts from people that said they were afraid to stand in there rooms and spent a day or more hugging their beds.

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 21z NBM (v.5.0):

loves you for posting this 

[vortex95]

7 minutes ago, klw said:

Another factor re roads is that nowadays so many people have AWD or 4WD vehicles.  I remember even with the 96 storm there were calls out for folks with AWD to help people get to hospitals.  After that we had the SUV explosion.   The odds of thousands of RWD cars getting stuck is so much lower today simply because what we are driving has changed.

Oh yes, when I got my first FWD car in 1998, it made a world of difference driving in snow, never mind the anti-lock brakes.  You had to work at it to actually fish-tail or wipe out in an open parking out testing things out!

[OrangeCTWX]

Nice snowbands south of LI.

[JDinCT]

14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You missed the most costly aspect of 78. Lunar cycle and High astro tides.

Plus, the sun angle was lower back in the 70's. Also, everything was uphill.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, FXWX said:

While all of the points made are valid, unless I missed posts, I didn't see posts claiming this would have the same social impacts of the 78... Of course it won't and no one I know was claiming it was, at least that I am aware.  In fact, you can argue that all of the historic storms we talk about, be it blizzards, hurricanes, tornado outbreaks, etc will not have the similar social impacts given today's technology and communication systems.  Will a 1938 hurricane every happened again? Yes, but it won't hit with little or no warning and recovery time frames will be shorter.  So when folks make comparisons to historic events, I think most know full well today's snow removal capabilities are light years ahead of where the were in 1888 and/or 1978.  As Will stated this won't nearly be as long in terms of snow duration.  Are there some atmospheric features that have similarities to 78, as well as other Kocin storms?  Yes.  Are they identical NO, but they are interested to note.

I will take the opposite  side of the  argument for the recovery time from a redux of the 1938 hurricane...

[Greg]

7 minutes ago, George001 said:

Is this storm a Miller A or B?

Hybrid Miller A and B

[Johnno]

2 minutes ago, FXWX said:

While all of the points made are valid, unless I missed posts, I didn't see posts claiming this would have the same social impacts of the 78... Of course it won't and no one I know was claiming it was, at least that I am aware.  In fact, you can argue that all of the historic storms we talk about, be it blizzards, hurricanes, tornado outbreaks, etc will not have the similar social impacts given today's technology and communication systems.  Will a 1938 hurricane every happened again? Yes, but it won't hit with little or no warning and recovery time frames will be shorter.  So when folks make comparisons to historic events, I think most know full well today's snow removal capabilities are light years ahead of where the were in 1888 and/or 1978.  As Will stated this won't nearly be as long in terms of snow duration.  Are there some atmospheric features that have similarities to 78, as well as other Kocin storms?  Yes.  Are they identical NO, but they are interested to note.

Even the issues experienced in 2013 wouldn’t be as severe today, after that storm the CT DOT and many towns added their own loader mounted snowblowers and tandem trucks size trucks with big horsepower, wing plows and butterfly plows, etc